Wildfire in California, July 11 to 26, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
330 PM PDT Fri Jul 11 2014

.Synopsis...
Warmer daytime temperatures into Monday then slight cooling back
down to near normal for the rest of the week. A chance of Sierra
crest thunderstorms returning Monday and spreading North for a
slight chance of thunderstorms over eastern Shasta County and down
along the Sierra Tuesday through Thursday.

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.Discussion...
The shortwave trough that brought clouds and showers overnight
into today is lifting out of the area this afternoon. Isolated
showers will diminish over Shasta and Western Plumas counties by
this evening. Mainly clear skies tonight to view the full moon at 425
am Saturday morning, except low clouds will return to the western
Delta to around Cordelia Saturday morning. Dry weather expected tonight
into the weekend with the next shortwave trough moving by Sunday
expected to stay northwest of the area.

Temperatures today are running similar to yesterday except a
little cooler in the far north and over the Sierra due to the
showers and cloud cover and a slightly cooler air mass. Warming
trend for the weekend into early next week as high pressure moves
westward into Northern California. Temperatures are expected to
warm several degrees on Saturday with highs in the 90s to around
100 in the valley and 70s and 80s in the mountains. By Monday
temperatures will rise into the near 100 to 110 in the valley and
mid 70s to low 90s in the mountains. This will bring temperatures
to around 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.

Monsoon moisture may move up into the Sierra on Monday as it
rotates up from the desert southwest. This will bring some moisture
and a little instability for a slight chance of thunderstorms to
the Sierra...mainly South of Highway 50 Monday afternoon and
evening.

.Extended Discussion (Tuesday through Friday)

The main issue for the extended forecast will be monsoonal
moisture bringing the potential for afternoon/evening
thunderstorms over the mountains.

Upper level ridging will flatten for next week with some cooling
form the weekend/Monday heat. While temperatures will remain a few
degrees above normal through the extended, temperatures on Tuesday
will feel relatively cooler, with expected highs about 5 degrees
lower from those on Monday. There should be little change through
the rest of the week bringing fairly typical mid July warmth.

While atmospheric moisture will be rather copious for this time of
year, instability and vertical lift continue to look fairly limited
 with the potential for thunderstorms focused over the mountains.
Most convective activity will depend on atmospheric instability
from day time heating so should be in the afternoon and the evening
time frame. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms looks
like it they will be on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday look
progressively less moist. EK

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.Aviation...

General VFR conditions expected to continue for the next 24 hours,
except scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Shasta
County and the Lassen Park into the early evening. Variable
outflow winds locally gusting to 30kt possible near any
thunderstorms. Otherwise, general valley winds south to west 5-15
kt overnight. Near the delta...SW winds at 10-20 kt will continue
with gusts up to 25 kt. EK

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.STO Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
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