Wildfire in California, July 1 to 15, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
439 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2014

.UPDATE...AIR QUALITY AND AVIATION SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

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.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS WEEK.

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.DISCUSSION...
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.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

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.PREV DISC... /ISSUED 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...TEMPERATURES ARE OFF TO THE RACES AGAIN TODAY WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT COMMON TO THE SJ VLY...LOWER FOOTHILLS AND THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT. SOME MESOSCALE DIFFERENCES ARE OCCURRING IN
THE PATTERN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FIRSTLY...THE MARINE LAYER HAS
DEEPENED A BIT ALONG THE CENTRAL CA COAST AND THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY. SOME OF THIS OCEAN COOLED AIR HAS TRICKLED
INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM FRESNO COUNTY
NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING 2 TO 7 DEGREES LOWER THAN 24
HRS AGO. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT...THE MOST NOTICEABLE COOLING HAS
BEEN NEAR PACHECO PASS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARE ALSO A BIT
STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES UP OVER
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE CARRIED INTO NEVADA. THE ABOVE CHANGES IN THE
PATTERN ARE BEING CAUSED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE THAT IS
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF THE SFO BAY AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
INLAND INTO NORTHERN CA TONIGHT WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN.

IN THE BROADER SCALE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE NEXT 4 TO 7 DAYS
AND CONTINUE TO BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE CENTRAL
CA INTERIOR. ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS KEEP A CLOSED LOW STATIONED
OFF THE PAC NW COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER CENTRAL CA. A MODERATE ONSHORE
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AND JUST BELOW
THE MOUNTAIN PASSES ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND IN KERN COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT FEW EVENINGS.

MEANWHILE...THE SUMMER MONSOON WILL BE KICKING UP OVER ARIZONA AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM TWO EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES SOUTH OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...DOUGLAS AND ELIDA...DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD AND WEAKEN. ALTHOUGH
SOME OF THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD MIGRATE INTO SOUTHERN CA IN THE
4 TO 7 DAY PERIOD...THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN THUNDERSTORM FREE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS CENTRAL CA. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT OUR
WEATHER COULD BECOME MORE HUMID BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON WEDNESDAY JULY 2 2014... UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS IN
FRESNO... KERN... KINGS AND TULARE COUNTIES AND SEQUOIA NATIONAL
PARK AND FOREST.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

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.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

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.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-01      114:1891     82:1982     80:1934     53:1975
KFAT 07-02      110:1942     78:1916     78:1924     51:1956
KFAT 07-03      110:2001     78:1910     78:2001     50:1901

KBFL 07-01      115:1950     70:1912     80:1977     50:1913
KBFL 07-02      114:1950     80:1902     85:1912     51:1913
KBFL 07-03      111:1942     85:1978     79:1970     48:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...DURFEE
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...DURFEE
SYNOPSIS...DURFEE

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD