Flooding in Arkansas, July 1 to 17, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1210 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. TAFS OUT SHORTLY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSECTION OF
THE COUNTRY TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE STATE. FRONT SHOULD APPROACH THE NWRN ZONES
AND BRING SOME PRECIP CHANCES TO THOSE AREAS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH
PRECIP CHANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH INTO THE MID SECTION OF THE STATE BY TOMORROW
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE STATE BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

GFS WAS A BIT FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IN RELATION TO
THE NAM AND ECMWF...AND I WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MODELS IN
BRINGING THE FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE.

COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND KEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS HIGH...BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WILL ORIGINATE FROM THE NORTH SO
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE STATE. SUNDAY THIS HIGH BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST AND WILL ALLOW SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THROUGH.
EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
344 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
344 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES...
MAINLY IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY...AND IN AREAS EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 30 AND HIGHWAY 67 CORRIDOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM 100 TO 104
DEGREES ACROSS THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS EAST OF I-30
AND HIGHWAY 67 AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. BY LATE THURSDAY...THE FRONT
WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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