High Wind in California, February 15, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
845 AM PST SAT FEB 15 2014

.UPDATE...WILL BE UPDATING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...QPF...TO LOWER
THEM FOR COOS COUNTY BUT RAISE THEM SLIGHTLY FOR CURRY COUNTY AS
PER LATEST NAM PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT LULL IN THE STORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS JUST RIGHT OFF SHORE AND WILL
MOVE ONSHORE THIS MORNING. ORIENTATION OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM IS MORE
NORTH-SOUTH COMPARED TO PREVIOUS SYSTEMS. AS SUCH...CURRY COUNTY
TAKES THE BRUNT OF THE HIT WHILE COOS COUNTY GETS SOME RELIEF. AS
MENTIONED IN THE UPDATE SECTION ABOVE...WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS IN
COOS COUNTY BUT RAISE THEM SLIGHTLY IN CURRY COUNTY. THIS MAY
AFFECT CURRENT RIVER STAGE FORECASTS ESPECIALLY FOR THE COQUILLE.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 15/12Z TAF CYCLE.

A WARM FRONT IS MOVING NORTH THIS MORNING AND IS LOCATED OVER
COOS...DOUGLAS AND NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTIES. MEANWHILE A STRONG
FRONT IS APPROACHING THE COAST THIS MORNING FROM THE WEST AND WILL
MOVE INLAND DURING THE EVENING. IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST INTO DOUGLAS COUNTY AS THE STRONG
FRONT ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND
AT KRBG.

ALONG THE COAST EXPECT A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IFR IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
HEAVIEST RAIN ARRIVES. FOR INLAND AREAS...SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT
THERE IS A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS INCLUDING
AT KMFR. AS THE STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THOUGH LATE
THIS MORNING, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP INLAND WITH LOCAL
MVFR CIGS.   DURING THE MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EXPECT
INCREASING MVFR CIGS OVER THE AREA AS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SPREADS
INLAND. ALSO, THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REACH THE SURFACE IN
THE LATE MORNING  INTO AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. /CC

&&

.MARINE...

CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS A STRONG  COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING . THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO  GALES THIS MORNING WITH
STORM FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY WITHIN 30 NM OF THE COAST. STORM FORCE WINDS OF 50 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 65 KT ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. GALE TO STORM FORCE  WINDS
WILL  PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TODAY AS WELL AS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A HIGH WEST SWELL BRIEFLY BECOMING
DOMINANT AS SEAS REMAIN HIGH. ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
CLOSELY BEHIND WITH GALES AND VERY STEEP SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 22 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING DUE TO LARGE WESTERLY SWELL AND
VERY STEEP WIND WAVES. THIS STORMY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS...AND  PERIODS OF GALE FORCE
WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. /CC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM PST SAT FEB 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT IR IMAGE SHOWS THE NEXT STORM ALREADY STARTING
TO TAKE SHAPE OUT NEAR 35N/139W WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD TOP COOLING OUT
AHEAD OF IT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT'S OVER THE AREA RIGHT NOW SHOULD LIFT
NORTH AND WE'LL SEE PRECIPITATION DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE SHASTA AND ROGUE
VALLEYS. STILL WERE EXPECTING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO IMPACT THE
COAST AND COASTAL MOUNTAINS TODAY. PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE FOR
DETAILS REGARDING FLOOD PRODUCTS AS WELL AS THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PRODUCT. IN SHORT, ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER ALONG THE COAST
WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS AND 1
TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS. MORE SMALL STREAM
AND URBAN FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SOME
MAIN STEMS WILL ALSO FLOOD. SNOW LEVELS WILL COME UP TO
AROUND 7000 FEET THIS MORNING...LOWERING TO AROUND 6500 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT DATA STILL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A BENT BACK OCCLUDED
FRONT WITH CONVECTION TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND INTO THE
COAST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH A LOW
PROBABILITY FORECAST, BOTH THE GFS40 AND NAM12 STILL SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUCH A FEATURE, AS COLD AIR AT 500MB OUTRUNS THE 700MB
WARM SECTOR, THIS COULD GIVE RISE TO CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS
RESULTING IN SQUALLY CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ON THE
COAST FROM ABOUT GOLD BEACH NORTHWARD. IF THIS DOES INDEED OCCUR,
THIS BOUNDARY WOULD STAND A CHANCE OF RIDING OVER THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS AND EASTWARD AND SHORT TERM WARNINGS MIGHT BE NEEDED. SUCH
PAST EVENTS USUALLY HAVE OCCURRED IN MARCH AND HAVE RESULTED IN MANY
DOWNED TREES. SO BEWARE AS THE FRONT GOES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

ON TOP OF THAT, MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO GOING TO IMPACT
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT IS STRONGER
COMPARED TO THE LAST ONE, SO WERE EXPECTING STRONGER WINDS. THE
MODELS HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT, SO THE CURRENT COVERAGE OF THE
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH. THE ONE CHANGE I MADE
WAS TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO THE COVERAGE OF THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THE INLAND WESTSIDE LOCATIONS. THE MODELS STILL SHOW THE SURFACE LOW
FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE LAST ONE AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
TIGHTER. ALSO THE TROUGH TILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND THIS WILL
TAP INTO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. THIS IS ALSO A GOOD SCENARIO FOR A
COASTAL JET TO SET UP JUST OFFSHORE RESULTING IN HIGH WINDS OVER THE
WATERS, COASTAL HEADLANDS AND COAST RANGE. HIGH WINDS ARE ALSO
LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE PARTICULARLY IN THE SUMMER LAKE AREA.

WE'LL ALSO SEE WINDS MIX DOWN INTO THE VALLEYS, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE ALL AREAS WILL BE AFFECTED, SO ADDED SOME DETAIL TO THE
ADVISORIES. IT'S GOING TO BE A CLOSE CALL FOR MEDFORD TO REACH
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BECAUSE THE WINDS ARE NOT PERFECTLY ALIGNED BUT
ASHLAND STANDS A BETTER CHANCE. WINDS WILL DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR 3000 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE DECREASE WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATION. WITH THAT SAID, EXPECT SOME SNOW TO ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ALONG HIGHWAYS 140...62...US
HIGHWAY 97 NORTH OF CHILOQUIN AND PERHAPS OVER SISKIYOU SUMMIT.

PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE PRETTY MUCH WRAPPED UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS AND EC ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY MORNING, THEN MOVING INTO
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER THIS TIME WERE NOT EXPECTING NEARLY THE
TOTALS WE HAVE SEEN FROM THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS. -PETRUCELLI

AVIATION...A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS BUT THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AND LOWEST CEILINGS IN SOUTHWEST OREGON. LATER IN
THE MORNING, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS
FRONT WILL ARRIVE AT THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON THEN SPREAD
INLAND TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT THE COAST
AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. FREEZING LEVELS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE
MORNING...UP TO 8000 FT MSL WHILE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH IFR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOTH FRONTS. ALSO, THE STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
REACH THE SURFACE IN THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
SPILDE/DW

MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS CONTINUING AND WINDS AND SEAS ARE
INCREASING THIS EVENING. BUT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AND
SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WINDS WILL REACH
GALE FORCE LATE TONIGHT THEN INCREASE TO STORM FORCE AT 50 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 65 KT THIS MORNING. THESE STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH A HIGH WEST SWELL
BRIEFLY BECOMING DOMINANT AS SEAS REMAIN HIGH. ANOTHER STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND WITH GALES LIKELY DEVELOPING ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN INCREASING SEAS...LIKELY
TO PEAK NEAR 20 FT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS STORMY PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS...AND
ALSO PERIODS OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SPILDE/DW

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ORZ021>028.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ021-022-024.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     FOR ORZ023-025-026.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ027-028.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029.

CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085.
     FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CAZ080.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ084.
     HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR  PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

KRS/TRW/TRW