High Wind in California, April 29 to 30, 2014

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PDT TUE APR 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION...MARINE...FIRE DISCUSSIONS...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND GUSTY SANTA ANA WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH
THURSDAY...WILL BRING HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA. IT WILL
REMAIN VERY WARM ON FRIDAY...BUT WINDS WILL WEAKEN. SIGNIFICANT
COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL AREAS. FURTHER
COOLING IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THU)...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...SKIES WERE
CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THU.
KLAX-KDAG PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE TURNED OFFSHORE AND WERE BEGINNING
TO INCREASE...NOW NEARLY 4 MB OFFSHORE. WITH THIS EVENT...IT APPEARS
THAT THE WRF WAS DOING A BETTER JOB BOTH WITH ITS SFC PRESSURE
INITIALIZATION AND ITS FORECAST...WITH GRADIENTS ON TRACK TO BE
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 MB OFFSHORE FROM KLAX-KDAG BY 12Z. THERE WAS STILL
ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND ACROSS SBA COUNTY TO
KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING THERE...SO WILL EXTEND WIND ADVISORIES FOR
THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE AND ADJACENT SOUTH COAST THROUGH MID MORNING.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NELY DIRECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE. WINDS WERE ALREADY WELL INTO THE ADVISORY
CATEGORY IN THE MTNS OF L.A. COUNTY INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICAS...
AND HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AS 850 MB WINDS STRENGTHEN AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE REGION. HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE MTNS
OF VTU AND L.A. COUNTY INCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE LOOK
GOOD...AS DOES THE WARNING FOR THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY.
ELSEWHERE...HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT DECENT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
WILL AFFECT THE VTU COUNTY COAST AND VALLEYS...MUCH OF THE SAN
FERNANDO VALLEY...AND BELOW PASSES AND CANONS FROM MALIBU TO THE
HOLLYWOOD HILLS THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.

WINDS WILL LIKELY DROP OFF A BIT IN MOST AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...DURING THE TYPICAL DIURNAL LULL.
HOWEVER...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE FORECAST TO BE EVEN MORE STRONGLY
OFFSHORE WED MORNING...WITH THE WRF INDICATING A 7.6 MB OFFSHORE
GRADIENT BETWEEN KLAX AND KDAG. EVEN THE GFS SHOWS A 4.5 MB OFFSHORE
GRADIENT...QUITE SHARP FOR THAT MODEL. IN ADDITION...ALL MODELS
INDICATE EVEN BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WED MORNING AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SSWD INTO ARIZONA...CAUSING UPPER LEVEL
WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. 850 MB WINDS WILL ALSO GET A BOOST...WITH THE
ALWAYS MORE BULLISH WRF SHOWING 55 TO 60 KT WINDS AT 850 MB OVER THE
L.A. COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE GFS SHOWING RESPECTABLE 30 KT WINDS.
EXPECT NE WINDS TO BE EVEN STRONGER IN MOST AREAS ON WED. WILL LEAVE
ADVISORIES IN PLACE...BUT IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONT TO INDICATE SUCH
HEALTHY UPPER SUPPORT...HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXPANDED
INTO THE VTU COUNTY VALLEYS...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD ALSO AFFECT FOOTHILL PORTIONS OF
THE SAN GABRIEL VALLEY ON WED.

ALL MODELS CONT TO TREND STRONGER WITH THE WINDS ON THU MORNING...SO
ONCE AGAIN...AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS LATE WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WINDS WILL PROBABLY REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE SAME
AREAS CURRENTLY UNDER ADVISORIES NOW. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS
THAT WINDS IN THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES WILL REMAIN BELOW
WARNING LEVELS WED NIGHT AND THU.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR SURE...IT WILL BE VERY
WARM TO HOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION EACH DAY...BUT GETTING THE
EXACT DETAILS WILL BE A BIT DIFFICULT...AS THE MODELS SURPRISINGLY
VARY WIDELY WITH THEIR MAX TEMP FORECASTS. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 90S IN THE VALLEYS AND INTERIOR COASTAL SECTIONS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S NEAR THE COAST...AND MID 70S TO LOWER 80S IN
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE MTNS. THE WRF
GUIDANCE FOR LONG BEACH IS 100 DEGREES FOR TODAY...WHICH IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT IS UNLIKELY.

FOR WED...THE GFS IS FORECASTING SOME CRAZY MAX TEMPS SUCH AS 108 AT
VNY AND 106 AT BURBANK AND LONG BEACH...WHILE THE WRF IS GOING WITH
LOWER TO MID 90S AT ALL THREE LOCATIONS. BASED ON THE FACT THAT
THERE WILL BE SOME COLD ADVECTION...FIND IT DIFFICULT TO BLV THERE
WILL BE SO MUCH WARMING...SO HAVE DISCOUNTED THE HIGHER GFS NUMBERS.
IN FACT...WITH 950 MB TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON WED...EXPECT A BIT OF
COOLING...AT LEAST IN THE VLYS. TEMPS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN MAY
CHANGE LITTLE OR EVEN RISE A BIT AS COMPRESSIONAL WARMING OVERWHELMS
ANY LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION.

IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE SOME WARMING ON THU AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION WANES...AND THICKNESSES AND TEMPS AT 850 AND 950 MB RISE.
HIGH TEMPS COULD APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE
WARMEST LOCATIONS ON THU.

TONIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE RATHER WARM IN THE FOOTHILLS AND WHERE
IT REMAINS WINDY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY FALLING NO LOWER THAN 70
DEGREES IN THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND
FLATTEN A BIT FRI AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW.
HOWEVER...HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES REMAIN RATHER HIGH...AND LOW LEVEL
GRADIENTS WILL STILL BE OFFSHORE IN THE MORNING. THERE COULD STILL
BE SOME LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS FRI MORNING...MAINLY IN THE MTNS...BUT
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. IT SHOULD STILL BE
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY...WITH TEMPS RISING ABOVE 90 DEGREES IN THE
VALLEYS AND PROBABLY THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE
EC CONTS TO SHOW LESS IN THE WAY OF COOLING ON FRI AS IT KEEPS
HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE PAC
NW ON SAT AND MOVE ONSHORE SUNDAY...WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE FCST AREA. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT COOLING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BOTH SAT AND SUN...WITH TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS IN MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE
EC SHOWS LESS IN THE WAY OF COOLING...ESPECIALLY ON SAT. NIGHT
THROUGH MORNING STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO COASTAL AREAS SAT
NIGHT/SUN...AND POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRI NIGHT/SAT. AS HEIGHTS CONT
TO FALL ON MONDAY...THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN...WITH
NIGHT/MORNING CLOUDS AND FOG PUSHING INTO THE VLYS...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...29/1200Z...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM TO HOT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
BE VERY LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIKELY DOWN
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VERY POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE STRONG AND GUSTY NE WINDS AT TIMES ACROSS L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...POSSIBLY REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES.

&&

AVIATION...29/1025Z.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE AND
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THE USUAL SITES LIKE KSBA THROUGH 16Z THIS
EVENING AND KBUR AND KVNY THIS MORNING.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF NORTH WINDS EXCEEDING 15 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/320 AM PDT...
OUTER WATERS...GALES ARE NO LONGER VALID AND HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR NW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
THROUGH 9 AM FOR ALL OUTER WATERS.

INNER WATERS...MAIN ISSUE WILL BE SANTA ANA WINDS DEVELOPING THIS
MORNING AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR BOTH SOUTHERN INNER
WATER ZONES FROM 6AM THROUGH 3 PM TODAY. MAIN IMPACT AREAS WILL BE
FROM RINCON POINT SOUTH TO SANTA MONICA AND OUT TO ANACAPA AND SANTA
CRUZ ISLANDS. ALSO...THE SAN PEDRO CHANNEL TO CATALINA. EXPECT E TO
NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT. THERE WILL BE LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 KT NEARSHORE
BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS AROUND MALIBU TO POINT MUGU. WINDS WILL
CALM DOWN SOME LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIMILAR TYPE WINDS WILL OCCUR ONCE AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FIRE WEATHER WATCH (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...DB
AVIATION/MARINE...KAPLAN
FIRE...DB

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
950 PM PDT MON APR 28 2014

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-291300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
950 PM PDT MON APR 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... REST OF TONIGHT

GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS SOUTH OF
POINT SAL...AND ACROSS THE SANTA BARBARA CHANNEL THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. GUSTY AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES...VENTURA...AND SANTA BARBARA
COUNTIES.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY WARM TO HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE 90S IN THE
VALLEYS AND POSSIBLY ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY AND
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER TUESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY...POSSIBLY REACHING CRITICAL LEVELS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FIRE WEATHER WATCH.........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL