High Wind in California, April 25 to 26, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
122 PM PDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
SMALL AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO
BRING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. COOLER
ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG WINDS CONTINUING IN THE DESERTS...AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN THE COASTAL AREAS AND VALLEYS. AFTER A CHILLY
START...IT WILL BE FAIR AND WARMER ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REBUILDS. DRY AND WARMER FOR THE WORKWEEK UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

THIS AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
NW. RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
INDIVIDUAL ELEMENTS ARE MOVING NE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A COLD LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NW.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENING AND MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL HAVE ENOUGH
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE...COLD AIR INSTABILITY AND DYNAMIC FORCING TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO SAT
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR TSTMS WILL NOT BECOME FAVORABLE
UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE COLDEST AIR MOVES IN ALOFT. MAINLY DUE TO THE
RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM...PRCIP AMOUNTS WILL BE MOSTLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO ONE QUARTER INCH WEST OF THE MTNS AND LESS THAN ONE
TENTH INCH IN THE DESERTS. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE
COASTAL SLOPES WHERE STRONG OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WILL PRODUCE
TOTALS OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH.

THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SW TO W WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...BECOMING NW SAT MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
IN THE MTNS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS WHERE SPEEDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH OR GREATER
ARE POSSIBLE ON THE DESERT SLOPES OF THE MTNS WHERE MTN WAVES REACH
THE SURFACE. AT LOW ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE MTNS...CONDITIONS WILL BE
BREEZY WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING TO 30 MPH IN SOME
AREAS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN MORNING.

THE TROUGH WILL BRING COLD AIR FROM THE NRN PAC INTO
SOCAL...RESULTING IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S WEST OF
THE MTNS AND 70S IN THE DESERTS. THESE TEMPS ARE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DESERTS.

BY LATE SAT...THE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED EAST PUTTING SOCAL UNDER
DRY AND STABLE NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER FOR
SUN...BUT COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST FOR THE
EARLY PART OF SUN.

FOR MON THROUGH THE WORKWEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST WILL BRING FAIR AND MUCH WARMER WEATHER...WITH LITTLE OR NO
MARINE LAYER PRESENCE. PERIODS OF LOCALLY GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP FOR TUE THROUGH THU AS A SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.

SURF...FORE-RUNNERS FROM A MODERATE VERY LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL
SHOULD BEGIN ARRIVING TODAY WITH PERIODS OF 22-23 SECONDS. THE SWELL
WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AT 4
FT/17-19 SECONDS...LIKELY PRODUCING HIGH SURF OF 5-8 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SETS AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ORANGE COUNTY
BEACHES. THUS...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ORANGE
COUNTY COAST. SAN DIEGO COUNTY WILL BE LESS FAVORED...DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OF THE SWELL...BUT WILL STILL SEE ELEVATED
SURF...STRONG RIP CURRENTS AND LONGSHORE CURRENTS. A BEACH HAZARDS
STATEMENT REMAINS POSTED. THE SWELL WILL SLOWLY LOWER MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
252020Z...BKN STRATUS 10 SM INLAND IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY...WITH BASES
AROUND 2500 FT MSL AND TOPS AROUND 3000-3500 FT MSL...WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH 26/0000 UTC. ELSEWHERE...UNRESTRICTED VIS...FEW-SCT
CLDS 2500-3500 FT MSL AND FEW-SCT CLDS AOA 20000 FT MSL.

26/0000-1200 UTC...OVER AND W OR SW OF MTNS...INCREASING CLDS IN THE
2000-11000 FT MSL LAYER...WITH INCREASING SHOWERS...AREAS OF VIS
3-5SM...LOCAL VIS/CIGS AOB 2SM/1500 FT MSL IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH CB TOPS TO 25000 FT
MSL WITH POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL/STRONG DOWNDRAFTS...AND MTN OBSCURATION
OF COASTAL SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING CLDS AOA 10000 FT MSL AND
UNRESTRICTED VIS EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF BLOWING DUST IN THE DESERTS
PRODUCING VIS AOB 2 SM.

WINDS...BY 26/0000 UTC...SW TO W WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 40-55 KT OVER THE RIDGES...ALONG DESERT SLOPES...THROUGH
PASSES/CANYONS AND INTO ADJACENT DESERT AREAS WILL RESULT IN STG-SVR
UDDFS/LLWS/ROTORS OVER AND E OR NE OF THE MTNS. KSAN...SFC WIND
GUSTS WILL LIKELY REACH 30 KT STARTING AROUND 26/0600 UTC AND
CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST 26/1700 UTC. KTRM...CHANCE OF NW SFC
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KT DURING THE 26/1000-1500 UTC TIME-FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-30 KT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS A STRONG TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE MAY BE SOME LOCAL
GUSTS TO 35 KT...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A GALE WARNING ISSUANCE. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A STEEP
SHORT-PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL AT AROUND 7-9 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT DURING THIS PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVER THE INNER WATERS ON SUNDAY
MORNING...LOCAL WRF AND CANSAC WRF INDICATE STRONG WINDS CONTINUING
OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THUS...THE ADVISORY
FOR THE OUTER WATERS CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER WATERS GOES INTO EFFECT
EARLY THIS EVENING. SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR DETAILS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
DIMINISH OVER THE OUTER WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

ALSO...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...WITH SMALL HAIL...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOCALLY
GUSTIER WINDS...AND WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR THE APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY
     MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM PDT
     SATURDAY FOR THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
     BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR
     THE BEACHES IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
     MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN
     BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE
     ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM PDT
     SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE
     MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT 30 NM.

&&

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON