Winter Storm and Winter Weather in Arkansas, March 16, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1136 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.UPDATE...

RAIN HAS ALREADY CHANGED OVER BRIEFLY TO SLEET...BEFORE BECOMING
SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS MORNING
AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH INTO THE STATE. EXPECT
THIS TREND TO OCCUR ONTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A QUICK CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW. AMPLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN GETTING WRAPPED INTO THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTH. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL...STILL EXPECT THERE TO BE A BURST
OF SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTHWEST...OR NORTH OF
AN AREA FROM OARK TO JASPER TO LEAD HILL. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE HIGH ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

AVIATION...

EXPECT SHRA TO CONTINUE ACROSS NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY...EVENTUALLY SWITCHING TO SNOW BY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE MENTIONED VCSH AS SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY PATCHY. EVEN SO...WITH WHAT MOISTURE
REMAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOME SN COULD MIX
IN AT CENTRAL SITES. FURTHER SOUTH...ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
LIQUID. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE SEEN...MAINLY AFTER THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECT WINDS OF 12-20 KTS
SUSTAINED...AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KTS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS
WILL BE ACROSS THE NRN SITES. IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY
BE SEEN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD...AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE DAYLIGHT
HRS ON MON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS NEAR
MENA...AND AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS.

PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHING IN BEHIND IT WILL ALLOW FOR WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A FEW HOURS
AFTER SUNSET.

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE FRONT ADVANCING TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER LOW
OVER THE PANHANDLES REGION GIVES IT MOMENTUM. DRY SLOTTING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE FRONT...WITH
PRECIP TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING INITIALLY.

BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW...WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL FILL BACK IN...
WITH PRECIPITATION CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF ARKANSAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN AS WELL...
WITH PRECIPITATION MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

SHOW ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT LATER TONIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR MOVING
IN...AND PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END.

HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY...WITH A WARMUP BACK
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ON TUESDAY...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS BOUNDARY...
SO PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS SFC
HIGH WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE STATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING...WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE STATE. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT...WITH PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASING. AS THIS FRONT DROPS INTO AR...UPPER FLOW WILL
BECOME ZONAL ACROSS THE STATE...WITH THE FRONT SLOWING OR BECOMING
STALLED ACROSS SOME PORTION OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...HAVE KEPT
POPS GOING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  24  48  33 /  90  50  10   0
CAMDEN AR         59  31  52  34 /  30  30  10   0
HARRISON AR       53  18  51  36 /  90  30  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  29  52  36 /  50  40  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  58  29  50  36 /  60  50  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     64  31  49  35 /  30  40  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      57  28  52  34 /  50  30  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  20  51  34 /  90  40  10   0
NEWPORT AR        55  25  48  35 /  90  60  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     60  30  47  35 /  40  50  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   58  26  53  34 /  80  40  10   0
SEARCY AR         54  27  49  34 /  80  50  10   0
STUTTGART AR      59  29  48  37 /  60  50  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR BAXTER-
BOONE-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.

&&

224

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1110 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-171000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1110 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF THE OZARK
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ACCUMULATIONS BY EVENING WILL MOSTLY
AVERAGE A HALF INCH UP TO TWO INCHES...WITH LOCALLY UP TO THREE
INCHES IN PORTIONS OF BOONE...NEWTON AND MARION COUNTIES.

CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE SOUTH...MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL STARTING WINDING DOWN.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW IN
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS THIS EVENING...WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN IS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 30 MPH. GUSTS FROM 30 TO OVER 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS.

COLDER AIR WILL SPILL INTO THE STATE. BY THIS EVENING...MOST AREAS
WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. SUBFREEZING CONDITIONS
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING...WITH READINGS IN
THE TEENS TOWARD THE MISSOURI BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DRY AND MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY LATE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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