Wildfire in Arkansas, March 13 to 15, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
845 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK. WILL FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS AND ISSUE A
LATE EVENING UPDATE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED.
(59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014/

.AVIATION...

OVERALL VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SCATTERED TO AT TIMES BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN.
WINDS WILL BE NW TO SW AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS THIS EVENING...LOWER TO
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND BECOME MORE SW OVERNIGHT. WINDS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE SW TO S AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE MORNING...BECOMING 10 TO 25
KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH RETURN FLOW
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS AND MOISTURE ON FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
STAY DRY MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THIS
WEEKEND.

ON SATURDAY...A SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELY
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SEVERE WEATHER CONFINED TO
AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST.

ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THE SYSTEM...WITH GOOD
CHANCES FOR RAIN CONTINUING. ALSO...COLDER AIR WILL BUILD INTO
ARKANSAS FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THERE IS AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT IT BECOMES COLD ENOUGH
ACROSS THE NORTH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOISTURE
DECREASES. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE FORECAST YET...BUT IT IS
A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...LEFTOVER RAIN IS EXPECTED...WITH MOST
PRECIPITATION ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS THE PERIOD STARTS...WITH
READINGS GOING BELOW NORMAL AS THE PERIOD ENDS.
&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DEEP H500 TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF ARKANSAS TO
START THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCES OF LINGER
RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS. A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
ALREADY MOVED SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY...THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH WINDS WILL
RETURN...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NOTED.

MEANWHILE...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WITH A SURFACE LOW FORMING NORTH OF THE STATE. THESE
FEATURES...ALONG WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS..SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH
AS THEY MOVE EAST.

ALTHOUGH ARKANSAS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW...MOISTURE RETURN
STILL APPEARS LIMITED. HAVE ADDED SILENT POPS TO WEDNESDAY AS MODELS
ARE DIFFERING ON TIMING AND WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIP WILL DEVELOP
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     43  67  47  60 /   0  10  20  60
CAMDEN AR         40  69  52  68 /   0  10  30  70
HARRISON AR       43  68  47  61 /   0   0  20  60
HOT SPRINGS AR    42  69  51  66 /   0  10  20  70
LITTLE ROCK   AR  42  71  51  64 /   0  10  20  70
MONTICELLO AR     41  68  53  67 /   0  10  30  70
MOUNT IDA AR      41  68  50  66 /   0  10  20  70
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  41  68  47  62 /   0   0  20  60
NEWPORT AR        45  67  49  60 /   0  10  20  60
PINE BLUFF AR     41  69  51  64 /   0  10  30  70
RUSSELLVILLE AR   38  69  48  66 /   0  10  20  70
SEARCY AR         40  66  46  60 /   0  10  20  60
STUTTGART AR      42  69  50  62 /   0  10  20  70
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...224

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
800 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
800 PM CDT THU MAR 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL GRADUALLY RISE TONIGHT...WHILE WINDS
SPEEDS LOWER...AND THE OVERALL WILD FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL LESSEN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN ELEVATED WILD FIRE DANGER THREAT
OVER THE STATE...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. EXTRA CAUTION SHOULD BE USED WITH OUT DOOR
BURNING.

OTHERWISE...THE CHANCE OF RAIN IS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO ARKANSAS AS A
COLD FRONT AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. SOME AREAS COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
STORMS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. REFER TO THE LATEST FORECASTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THESE UNCERTAINTIES BECOME MORE CLEAR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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