Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, June 5 to 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1200 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE CWA TONIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO BECOME POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LATEST LOCAL MODEL DATA INDICATES AN
MCS TRYING TO PUSH THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY. WILL
ADD TEMPO GROUPS TO BVO/XNA/FYV. BROKEN/OVERCAST MID CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY MORNING
WITHIN ANY PRECIP. ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE COMMON DURING THE DAY
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN
INTENSITY ACROSS SWRN MO/SERN KS IN VICINITY
OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.
POTENTIAL STORM SPLITS/COLD POOL MAY BRING A FEW
STORMS INTO PARTS OF FAR NERN OK AND PERHAPS NWRN
AR OVERNIGHT. PARTS OF NE OK HAVE RECENTLY BEEN
INCLUDED IN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH VALID UNTIL
5 AM.

WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON ORGANIZING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NERN CO. LOCAL MODEL/HRRR
AND LATEST 00Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT A COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS KS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND IMPACT PARTS
OF NE OK/NW AR AROUND 12-15Z. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   74  91  73  89 /  20  40  50  60
FSM   72  91  74  89 /  10  20  30  30
MLC   72  91  75  90 /  10  10  20  30
BVO   71  88  70  87 /  40  60  60  60
FYV   69  86  69  84 /  20  30  60  60
BYV   70  85  69  82 /  20  60  60  60
MKO   72  91  73  90 /  20  20  40  40
MIO   71  86  71  85 /  50  60  60  60
F10   73  91  74  90 /  10  20  30  40
HHW   71  91  74  91 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
502 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-051000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
502 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF A TULSA TO FAYETTEVILLE LINE.
	ONSET...AFTER 7-8 PM.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DRAPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI...AND A FEW STORMS WHERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WITH
STORMS POSSIBLY SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. INSTABILITY WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT
AND MAKE A RUN AT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TOWARD DAYBREAK.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES IN THE AREA.  INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT...ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING WIND SHEAR...TO
SUPPORT A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.