Tornadoes and Flash Flood in Arkansas, June 5 to 9, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1050 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED EARLIER TO FINE TUNE CHANCES OF RAIN...QPF AMOUNTS AND A FEW
OTHER ELEMENTS OVER NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BASED ON MCS
TRENDS...AND FOR SEVERE STORM WATCH OVER NORTHERN AR. CURRENT
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MO AND NORTHERN AR...WITH
SOME SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS. WILL KEEP A HIGH CHANCE OF CONVECTION
OVER NORTHERN TO EAST CENTRAL AR WITH MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE AND
HEAVY RAIN. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FROM THIS MCS...WILL BE
CONSIDERING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN AR FOR THE NEXT 48 HOUR
PERIOD. WILL FINE TUNE AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS AR...AND LOWER OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED
BACK TO THE SW OVER TX...AND HEIGHTS OVER AR HAVE LOWERED...WHILE
THE UPPER NW FLOW IS ALLOWING SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
THREAT AND HEAVY RAIN. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY HAVE A FEW ELEMENTS
ADJUSTED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

.AVIATION...05/12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME PATCHY FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOME LOCATIONS
EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH OCNL MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE. FOCUS WL THEN
SHIFT TO THE NEXT COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WL APCH FM THE NW LATER
THIS MRNG. RAPID UPDATE MODEL DATA CONT TO SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY WL
AFFECT MAINLY NRN AR TOWARD MIDDAY. MENTIONED TEMPO GROUPS AT
KHRO AND KBPK FOR CONVECTION. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE THRU
MUCH OF THE PD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WL BE POSSIBLE LATER TNGT...
BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO MENTION NOTHING MORE VCTS
IN THE FCST. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING...STRETCHING WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THEN
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL NOT MOVE MUCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WHICH...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES MOVING WEST
TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...WILL ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. CONVECTION HAS BEEN ONGOING IN SWRN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT AND SOME STORMS HAVE SLID SOUTH INTO NW
ARKANSAS...BUT BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM
KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS. ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING AND
THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHERE
EACH ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL TRAVERSE...AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE
WILL BE ANY FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION
AND HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE SAME AREAS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ANY WATCHES OR OTHER PRODUCTS.

OTHERWISE THE GIST OF THE SHORT TERM IS A CONTINUED UNSETTLED
PATTERN WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
SOUTH AND AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL BE HIGHER AND PRECIPITATION WILL
BE PRESENT PERIODICALLY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PD WL CONT TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A UNSETTLED WX PATTERN ACRS THE
MID SOUTH. A SERIES OF WEAK UPR LVL IMPULSES WL PASS THRU THE
REGION...RESULTING IN CONTD CHCS OF CONVECTION. WHILE POPS WL BE
INCLUDED THRU MUCH OF THE PD...IT WL NOT BE A TOTAL WASHOUT BY ANY
MEANS.

HAVE TRENDED THE FCST MORE TOWARD THE PROGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION. THE
LATEST ECMWF IS ATTEMPTING TO CLOSE OFF AN UPR LOW ACRS THE REGION
BY TUE AND WED. WOULD LIKE TO SEE LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ANY
CONSISTENCY WITH THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...BEST RAIN CHCS WL BE MON
AND MON NGT...THEN DCRSG SOMEWHAT BY MIDWEEK AS A WEAK HIGH PRES RDG
MOVES INTO THE FA.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
815 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-061000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
815 AM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF ARKANSAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS A SERIES OF UPPER
IMPULSES INTERACT WITH THE FRONT. A FEW STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS
ARKANSAS. ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST...MAINLY FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
REMAIN A CONCERN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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