High Wind in Arizona, November 5 to 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
850 PM MST WED NOV 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
THROUGH THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES
CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BREEZY TO WINDY DAY TODAY WITH PEAK GUSTS RUNNING
IN THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. A RAWS SITE IN THE
SANTA RITAS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR HIGH WINDS RECORDED A GUST OF
65 MPH EARLIER THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE CALMED DOWN SUBSTANTIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH 00Z
KTWC RAOB INDICATING 20-30 KTS OR SO JUST OFF THE SURFACE...GUSTY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LATEST IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOWING CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING
OVER THE CWA WITH A BIT OF WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY
INTO EXTREME SE ARIZONA THIS HOUR. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON
TRACK SO NO UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING.

WITH VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE UPPER AIR PATTERN EXPECTED TOMORROW
...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS ON TAP. AFTER TOMORROW...ATTENTION TURNS
TO A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER SPELL OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/06Z. SKC CONDITIONS. GUSTY ELY/NELY
SURFACE WIND AT 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS THRU 06/02Z THEN
WINDS EASING IN THE VALLEYS AND CONTINUING OVER AND NEAR HIGH
TERRAIN. GUSTY EAST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS
DEVELOPING ACROSS VALLEY AREA AGAIN AFT 06/17Z. RATHER STRONG EAST
WIND OF 25-35 KTS UP THRU 10K FT WITH A STRONGER NE WIND ABV 10K
FT THRU THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS. CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL EASE ACROSS THE VALLEY
AREAS BUT CONTINUE ACROSS AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE GUSTY EAST
WINDS WILL RESURFACE AGAIN MOST AREAS LATER THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS EAST FACING RIDGES AND
GAPS IN THE TERRAIN.  OTHER THAN THAT DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
CERNIGLIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM MST WED NOV 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OVER SONORA HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
DECENT EAST NORTHEAST FLOW IN SE AZ. CLOUDS HAVE ALSO WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW INTO MAINLY COCHISE COUNTY. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL
NUDGE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE WINDS MAY STAY UP IN SOME
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST WINDS OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL NOT ALLOW NORMAL DRAINAGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE
VALLEYS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE
VALUES AGAIN TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS READINGS. LINGERING
CLOUDS IN EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY SHOULD ALSO HELP KEEP TEMPS ON
THE MILD SIDE THERE TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY WIND SHOULD HELP MIX
TEMPERATURES OUT TO NEAR NORMAL OR PERHAPS EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL.

BEYOND THURSDAY...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW WANES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER
WEAK TO MODEST NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FLATTEN BY MID WEEK. THIS MAY ALLOW
A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS TO INFILTRATE THE REGION AND BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. DROZD

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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