Thunderstorms produced very heavy rain and dime sized hail over the Heber-Overgaard area.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Thunderstorms produced very heavy rain and dime sized hail over the Heber-Overgaard area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 230 PM MST SUN JUL 6 2014 .SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. && .DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF YAVAPAI COUNTY AND HAVE BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN. SOME STORMS HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND ONE HAD A SIGNIFICANT HAIL SIGNATURE ON RADAR AND LIKELY PRODUCED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. BY MID AFTERNOON...ANOTHER AREA OF STORMS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS APACHE COUNTY WHERE THERE HAS BEEN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS RESIDES ACROSS AZ TODAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ WAS 1.05 INCHES THIS MORNING WHICH IS IN THE 95TH PERCENTILE. THE 12Z SOUNDING ALSO HAD ABUNDANT INSTABILITY WITH A MIXED PARCEL SHOWING AROUND 700 TO 800 J/KG OF CAPE AND IS ABOUT THE 80TH PERCENTILE. THE COMBINATION OF VERY HIGH PW AND LARGE INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TODAY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION THIS MORNING SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WHICH IS PRODUCING A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS NRN AZ. GIVEN THIS SETUP EXPECT STORMS TO FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OF NRN AZ THEN SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH THE WEAK STEERING FLOW ALOFT STORM MOTION WILL PROBABLY BE DRIVEN IN PART BY OUTFLOWS. WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS...THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING. MODELS INDICATE A CONTINUATION OF THE PATTERN WITH DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN AZ FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE..NMRS SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD SCT +TSRA THROUGH 05Z MONDAY. COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES FROM EAST TO WEST. PRECIP COVERAGE TO DECREASE SLOWLY AFT 05Z MON. PSBL MVFR/IFR VSBY/CIGS IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. AFT 17Z MON...CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP...STARTING FIRST ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND EXPANDING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS && .FIRE WEATHER...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL. STORM MOTION THIS EVENING AND MONDAY GENERALLY FROM EAST TO WEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC.........DB AVIATION.......DL FIRE WEATHER...DL FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST SUN JUL 6 2014 AZZ004>018-037>040-070700- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 1000 AM MST SUN JUL 6 2014 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS ARIZONA TODAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE TOWARDS LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEERING WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK TODAY AND STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING THUS THERE IS AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
222 PM MST SUN JUL 6 2014
AZZ008-037-062200-
YAVAPAI AZ-
222 PM MST SUN JUL 6 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA
UNTIL 300 PM MST
AT 217 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR
DETECTED AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT
AROUND 10 MPH. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
YARNELL...PEEPLES VALLEY...AND CONGRESS
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
IF YOU ARE IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND STORMS APPROACH...TAKE SHELTER IN
A STURDY BUILDING.
&&
LAT...LON 3516 11334 3403 11195 3404 11215 3388 11228
3399 11274 3400 11334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2120Z 044DEG 4KT 3460 11274
DBThe Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 53 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:02 UTC.
1 heavy rain, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
Between 1.50 and 1.60 inches of rain fall around Heber-Overgaard. Water started to flow over roadways.
Dime sized (3/4 inch in diameter) covered the ground two inches deep.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2014
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 535010, 535009.