High Surf in California, July 6 to 7, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLOW DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY REDUCE THE CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH MONDAY. A POSSIBLE INFLUX OF MOISTURE ON TUESDAY WOULD
INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT WITH MINOR DAY TO
DAY FLUCTUATIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND. NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETURN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
THE MARINE LAYER SLOWLY DEEPENS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NORTH OF LOS ANGELES WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
MAINTAIN WEAK SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT OVER FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
IN COMBINATION WITH A SLOW DRYING TREND SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
INTO MONDAY. THE MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER POSSIBLE INFLUX OF LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER DESERTS ON TUESDAY. THIS WOULD
INCREASE SOMEWHAT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS FIELD ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST SOUTHWARD TO POINT CONCEPTION...BUT MOSTLY
REMAINING JUST BEYOND THE ISLANDS OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A GRADUAL RETURN OF
NIGHT AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH SLOW DRYING OF THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

THE RETURN AND SLOW DEEPENING OF THE MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A SLOW COOLING TREND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THE DRYING ALOFT WOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS INTO MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER
TUESDAY IF THERE IS ANOTHER INFLUX OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THERE IS GREATER AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD THAN THERE HAS BEEN IN RECENT DAYS...BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL REMAIN OF THE WESTERN FRINGE OF GREATER MOISTURE TO THE EAST.
THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE
MARINE LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE TO KEEP COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH NIGHT
AND MORNING COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.AVIATION...
060828Z...COAST/VALLEYS...PATCHES OF BKN CLDS AROUND 800-1200 FT MSL
POSSIBLE WITHIN 10 SM OF THE COAST THROUGH 1600 UTC...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THUS...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND
FEW-SCT CLDS AOA 8000 FT MSL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH 07/0800
UTC. 07/0800-1400 UTC...A LITTLE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SOME STRATUS
GRADUALLY DEVELOPING 10-15 SM INLAND WITH BASES 800-1200 FT
MSL...TOPS AROUND 1500 FT MSL AND LOCAL VIS 3-5SM.

MTNS/DESERTS...CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 1800
UTC...MAINLY IN THE MTNS BUT POSSIBLY IN SOME DESERT AREAS AS WELL.
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER BASES WOULD BE AROUND 8000 FT MSL WITH CB TOPS
35000-40000 FT MSL. IN VCNTY OF THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT GUSTY ERRATIC
DOWNDRAFTS...SMALL HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...AND VIS AOB 3SM.
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 07/0300 UTC.
OTHERWISE...UNRESTRICTED VIS AND SCT-FEW CLDS AOA 8000 FT MSL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
128 AM...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...
AS OF 1 AM...NEARSHORE BUOYS SHOW THAT THE LONG-ADVERTISED SOUTH
SWELL IS BUILDING NICELY...AT AROUND 3-4 FEET WITH 20-22 SECOND
PERIODS. THIS SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY...RESULTING IN SURF ZONE
CONDITIONS THAT ARE VERY DANGEROUS DUE TO WIDESPREAD STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. ALSO...THE SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF OF 4-6 FEET WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER SETS TO 7 FEET FROM AROUND OCEANSIDE NORTH THROUGH
ORANGE COUNTY. GIVEN THE STEEP ANGLE OF THE SWELL...175-180
DEGREES...LONG-SHORE CURRENTS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY IN SAN
DIEGO COUNTY. WAVE WATCH 3 SHOWS LONG-PERIOD 2-3 FOOT SOUTH SWELLS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD CONTINUE
THE RIP CURRENT THREAT. A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR
ELEVATED SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR THE BEACHES
     IN THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS.

PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...HARRISON