Arizona, 2014

Drought in Arizona, February 18 to 28, 2014

February 18 to 28, 2014 · NWS TWC · 6 events in 6 counties and zones

Extreme drought conditions returned to parts of southeast Arizona during the latter half of February. For the water year beginning in October of 2013, most areas only received 25 to 50 percent of normal precipitation through February.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
6

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

Extreme drought conditions returned to parts of southeast Arizona during the latter half of February. For the water year beginning in October of 2013, most areas only received 25 to 50 percent of normal precipitation through February. There was only one significant precipitation event during that time period, which occurred in November.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 18, 2:30 AM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 18, 2:30 AM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 AM MST TUE FEB 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...ONE MORE DAY OF NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
WEATHER SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY AFTERNOON
WINDS WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THIS
WEEK BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE INTO AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW DIRTIED UP WITH CIRRUS LEVEL MOISTURE AT
TIMES...BUT OTHERWISE RATHER DRY. PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 1/3 OF AN
INCH AND SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND AS HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES RECEDE EARLY THIS WEEK...BUT STILL
WARM ENOUGH FOR ONE MORE DAY NEAR RECORDS IN A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS.

LATEST HRRR STREAMLINE TRENDS HINTING AT MODEST GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT
AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TODAY. AN IMPULSE PASSING NORTH OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GRADIENT IN OUR PART OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SOME
CONCERNS FOR THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AS ADDRESSED BELOW.

AN EVEN HIGHER LATITUDE RESOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS THE
REBUILDING EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE NOSES IN TO CONTINUE TO KEEP US DRY
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z. SCT-BKN ABV 20K FT. NORMAL DIURNAL
WIND TRENDS LESS THAN 10 KTS...EXCEPT BECMG SW 8-14KT AFT 18/20Z
THRU 19/02Z MAINLY SE OF KTUS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS INTO
THIS COMING WEEKEND. SOME LOCALLY BREEZY SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY GENERATING INCREASED WESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND WIND PRONE
LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.  GENERALLY EXPECTING 15-25 MPH
20 FT WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS WITH AREAS OF RED FLAG CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN COCHISE...SOUTHERN GREENLEE AND SOUTHEAST
GRAHAM COUNTIES AS PER CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FIRE
  WEATHER ZONES 146 AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF FIRE WEATHER ZONE 148.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/RASMUSSEN

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Southeast Pinal County

When
February 18, 5:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Southeast Pinal County forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.904, -111.345 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought (D2) conditions present over much of southeast Arizona deteriorated into the extreme drought (D3) category in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties by mid February. These counties were among those listed as primary natural disaster areas by the USDA. The growing season had not yet started, so vegetation impacts were minimal, but soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was a less than 14 percent of capacity. Fuel dryness levels were drier than the long term average for February and significantly drier than in February 2013.

Drought, Upper San Pedro River Valley

When
February 18, 5:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper San Pedro River Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.109, -110.569 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought (D2) conditions present over much of southeast Arizona deteriorated into the extreme drought (D3) category in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties by mid February. These counties were among those listed as primary natural disaster areas by the USDA. The growing season had not yet started, so vegetation impacts were minimal, but soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was a less than 14 percent of capacity. Fuel dryness levels were drier than the long term average for February and significantly drier than in February 2013.

Drought, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet

When
February 18, 5:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought (D2) conditions present over much of southeast Arizona deteriorated into the extreme drought (D3) category in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties by mid February. These counties were among those listed as primary natural disaster areas by the USDA. The growing season had not yet started, so vegetation impacts were minimal, but soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was a less than 14 percent of capacity. Fuel dryness levels were drier than the long term average for February and significantly drier than in February 2013.

Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When
February 18, 5:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought (D2) conditions present over much of southeast Arizona deteriorated into the extreme drought (D3) category in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties by mid February. These counties were among those listed as primary natural disaster areas by the USDA. The growing season had not yet started, so vegetation impacts were minimal, but soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was a less than 14 percent of capacity. Fuel dryness levels were drier than the long term average for February and significantly drier than in February 2013.

Drought, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains

When
February 18, 5:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought (D2) conditions present over much of southeast Arizona deteriorated into the extreme drought (D3) category in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties by mid February. These counties were among those listed as primary natural disaster areas by the USDA. The growing season had not yet started, so vegetation impacts were minimal, but soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was a less than 14 percent of capacity. Fuel dryness levels were drier than the long term average for February and significantly drier than in February 2013.

Drought, Chiricahua Mountains

When
February 18, 5:00 AM MST to February 28, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Severe drought (D2) conditions present over much of southeast Arizona deteriorated into the extreme drought (D3) category in eastern Pinal, western Graham, extreme northeastern Pima and much of northern Cochise counties by mid February. These counties were among those listed as primary natural disaster areas by the USDA. The growing season had not yet started, so vegetation impacts were minimal, but soil moisture conditions were generally less than 30 percent of normal and San Carlos Reservoir was a less than 14 percent of capacity. Fuel dryness levels were drier than the long term average for February and significantly drier than in February 2013.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2014

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 500779, 502584, 502585, 502586, 502587, 502588.