Arizona, 2014

Flash Flood in Arizona, August 2, 2014

August 2, 2014 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

As a ridge of high pressure slid further to the east, strong thunderstorms hit the Tucson metro area. Rainfall amounts ranged from 1 to 2 inches with flash flooding in central to south Tucson.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

As a ridge of high pressure slid further to the east, strong thunderstorms hit the Tucson metro area. Rainfall amounts ranged from 1 to 2 inches with flash flooding in central to south Tucson.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 2, 1:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 1:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
130 PM MST SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT THANKS TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE THAT WILL
BE PRESENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER OR
SLOWER MOVING STORMS.  DIMINISHING MONSOONAL MOISTURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL RESULT IN LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTING MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WITH 1.65
INCHES OF PWAT BASED ON THE 18Z KTWC SPECIAL SOUNDING. LATEST RADAR
DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TOHONO OODHAM
NATION INTO WESTERN PIMA COUNTY WITH A BIT MORE ISOLATED STORM
COVERAGE MAINLY ACROSS SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTY. THESE STORMS
HAVE REMAINED RATHER SMALL IN GEOGRAPHICAL SIZE THUS FAR...WITH NO
REAL ORGANIZATION OR CLUSTERING OF STORMS. THUS...WHILE A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION HAVE SEEN RADAR INDICATED
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH IT HAS BEEN RATHER
ISOLATED. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS SONORA SWINGS
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING...THE LIFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREAT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
UNCERTAINTY IS HOW WELL ORGANIZED THE STORMS BECOME LATER TODAY.
SHOULD THEY REMAIN OF SIMILAR NATURE TO WHAT WE ARE SEEING NOW...IT
WILL BE HARD TO ATTAIN WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING.

EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH AND WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS WILL SETUP THE FORECAST AREA FOR LESS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE FROM TUCSON EASTWARD BUT CERTAINLY
EXPECTING CONSIDERABLY FEWER STORMS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK AS THE HIGH
ALOFT SHIFTS SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE MAIN PLUME OF MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST
ALONG THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER WITH GENERALLY A LOW GRADE
MONSOON PATTERN THIS UPCOMING WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY FROM TUCSON WESTWARD WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE DRYING
WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH AREAS WEST OF TUCSON EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DRY AND GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCES EAST OF TUCSON WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF RIGHT ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WHERE THE MOISTURE IS A BIT
MORE PRONOUNCED. LATER IN THE WEEK THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE ECMWF
WITH RESPECT TO INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE MORE MOIST SCENARIO WITH MOISTURE AND THUS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASING BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE DRYING THIS
WEEK WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO PEAK WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/00Z
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS
SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS PSBL AGAIN SUNDAY AFTER 03/19Z MAINLY
FROM KTUS EASTWARD. EXPECT LOWERING OF CIGS...REDUCED VSBYS WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STRONG...GUSTY AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AIDED BY A DISTURBANCE ALOFT. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. SEASONALLY HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES WILL ALSO TRANSLATE INTO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
GRADUALLY LESSEN SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.
A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK WITH THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE AND CHANCE FOR STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM ALL
ZONES.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

GL

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 40 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:02 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Pima

When
August 2, 4:00 PM MST to 4:45 PM MST
Where
Pima County, 5.29 mi SSE of Sabino to 4.3 mi WNW of Vail
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Broadcast Media
Coordinates
32.234, -110.775

Strong thunderstorms brought heavy rainfall to the Tucson area. Rainfall rates of over 2 inches per hours and storm totals of between 1.5 inches and 2.0 inches resulted in flash flooding of the streets of central to south Tucson.

What these are

Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2014

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 539350.