Wildfire in California, August 2 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
906 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...A SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON. ALSO SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
KLAMATH COUNTY AND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY WHERE SOME MID
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SETS UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING.

ON SUNDAY...MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES AS A LOW PUSHES UP FROM THE
SOUTH INTO NEVADA. THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEAT AND INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ON MONDAY...THIS LOW PUSHES FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA, SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN NEVADA. THIS WILL BRING
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE SHOWING INSTABILITY OVER
THE AREA AS THIS LOW CIRCULATION PUSHES INTO THE REGION MONDAY
MORNING. THIS MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. THEN
AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTH EXPECT SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH WILL FACTOR
INTO HOW FAR WEST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY.
CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST SCATTERED STORMS IN EASTERN KLAMATH, LAKE
AND MODOC COUNTIES WITH ISOLATED STORMS WEST TO WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY IN CALIFORNIA AND TO THE CASCADES IN OREGON.

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON THE 02/12Z TAFS...

ALONG THE COAST...AREAS  OF IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
COAST FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THE MARINE STRATUS MAY RETREAT FAR
ENOUGH FOR TEMPORARY VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND LEFT
IT IN THE TAF. IFR CIGS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT. INLAND...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF TURBULENCE WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL  IN AREAS FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD
IN SOUTHERN OREGON. ALSO AREAS OF SMOKE FROM EXISTING FIRES COULD
CAUSE TEMPORARY REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY IN NORTHERN CAL...ROGUE
VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE KLAMATH BASIN.

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 230 AM PDT 2 AUG 2014...

THE CURRENT PATTERN...WITH SOME SLIGHT DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLY THROUGH FRIDAY. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A THERMAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
COMBINE TO MAINTAIN STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WITH STEEP TO VERY STEEP
WIND WAVE DOMINATED SEAS. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND STEEPEST SEAS
WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON THE WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE BLANCO BEYOND 10 NM. JBL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 AM PDT SAT AUG 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
NEAR FORT BRAGG CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY AND COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO FIRE UP AGAIN EAST OF THE CASCADES. THE MODELS SUGGEST THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
LAKE AND KLAMATH COUNTIES AND CASCADES FROM ABOUT HOWARD PRAIRIE
NORTH. ALSO COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN PARTS OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO THEY SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGH TERRAIN. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY, SO THE SAME AREAS THAT GET ISOLATED STORMS
TODAY WILL BE UNDER THE GUN AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER IT STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WE'LL HAVE ENOUGH LIGHTNING TO
WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING. AREAS OF SMOKE FROM THE FROM EXISTING
FIRES OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.

OF BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST MEXICO IS IS PUSHING NORTHWEST AND
THE MODELS ARE IN SIMILAR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THIS DEEPER MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EC PUSHES THE MOISTURE
FARTHER WEST THAN THE GFS, BUT THE EARLIER RUN OF THE GFS WAS ALSO
SHOWING THIS. THE MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY INCREASING ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN EASTERN KLAMATH...LAKE AND
PARTS OF MODOC COUNTIES. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT
AND DETAILS CAN AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE. HOWEVER IF THIS PANS OUT,
THEN WE COULD HAVE ANOTHER LIGHTING OUTBREAK IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED
AREAS CAUSING NEW STARTS OR COMPLICATING EXISTING ONES BECAUSE OF
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ARE GONG TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH TRIPLE DIGITS POSSIBLE TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE SAME
LOCATIONS AS FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN SOME MONDAY
DUE TO MORE CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE
NORMAL.

THE SYNOPTIC WIND PATTERN SHOULD FAIRLY LIGHT AT NIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, THEN PICK UP SOME IN THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. HOWEVER GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR AND WITHIN
THE FIRE PERIMETERS DUE TO AIR BEING DRAWN IN AS HOT AIR FROM THE
HEAT OF THE FIRES RISES. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PDT TUESDAY
     FOR PZZ376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.

CC