High Wind in Alaska, October 20, 2014

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
227 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...HAVE BEEN HANDLING FEATURES WELL OVER THE PAST WEEK OR
SO IN THE SHORT TERM. THEY DO HAVE ISSUES AS YOU GET OUT INTO THE
MID RANGE AS THEY DIVERGE GREATLY BY SUNDAY. HANDLING OF THE LOW
ON THURSDAY IS REASONABLE SO WILL USE A BLEND NUDGED TO THE
CURRENT GRIDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...AT 500 MB...TROUGH REMAINS OVER SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND
PATTERN OVER THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION AS THE 516 DAM
CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTH THEN EAST AND MERGES WITH A 514 DAM LOW
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA. WEAK RIDGING WILL DEVELOP WEST TO
EAST OVER THE INTERIOR BEGINNING TUESDAY. RIDGE LYING NORTH TO
SOUTH OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE WEST COAST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. A 535 DAM HIGH OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM A LOW
IN HIGH IN THE CANADIAN ARCTIC WILL BACK OVER THE ARCTIC COAST
WITH A 527 DAM LOW DEVELOPING OVER BARROW BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AT
850 HPA...TEMPERATURES STEADY NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN A SLOW COOLING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

SURFACE...A 1040MB HIGH IN THE HIGH ARCTIC REMAINS QUASI
STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT WEAKENS TO 1035MB. 980MB LOW IN
THE NORTHERN GULF WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THEN BE
ABSORBED BY A 982MB THAT IS 400NM SOUTH OF KODIAK THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE 200NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
WOBBLE WEST TO 300NM SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA
WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. A 1000MB LOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TUESDAY EVENING AND MOVE TO THE GULF
OF ANADYR BY THURSDAY MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA WITH STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER TH ARCTIC COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT OVER THE INTERIOR WILL WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT HANGING ON OVER THE ARCTIC
INTO FRIDAY.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
AND MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 50
MPH. WINDS ON THE COAST DIMINISHING THURSDAY MORNING...BUT HANGING
ON INTO FRIDAY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. NO CHANGE IN THE
FLURRIES...SNOW SHOWERS...OCCASIONAL FREEZING DRIZZLE...PATCHY
FOG...LOCAL BLOWING SNOW...LOW STRATUS CEILINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN PRETTY STEADY...BUT FALL A DEGREE OF TWO THROUGH THE WEEK.
NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW OR ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OFFSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF THE
WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE WITH NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE BERING STRAIT
OF 20 TO 30 MPH. INLAND WINDS NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH SOME GUSTS OVER THE HILLS TO 25 MPH. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH A FEW FLURRIES IN THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY POSSIBLE.
AREAS IN THE LOWER YUKON DELTA COULD SEE AROUND ONE INCH OF
SNOW...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE COAST STEADY WITH INTERIOR AREAS SEEING
TEMPERATURES FALL A COUPLE DEGREES THROUGH MID WEEK.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING PRODUCING FLURRIES FOR MOST AREAS
BY DAYS END. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVER THE HILLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST ON HILLS AND DOWN VALLEY WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES STEADY TODAY INTO TUESDAY THEN A SLOW
COOL DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...A 994MB LOW WILL MOVE TO
THE GULF OF ANADYR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM
REACHING THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. THIS COULD PUSH
WATER INTO NORTON SOUND FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

&&

SDB OCT 14

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
222 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

AKZ201>204-210000-
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE...
BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...
ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND
222 AM AKDT MON OCT 20 2014

...STRONG EASTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE...

A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC IS COMBINING
WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA TO CREATE A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS.

STRONG EASTERLY WINDS THAT CAME UP LAST WEEK WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK BEFORE THE SYSTEMS BREAK DOWN SATURDAY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 55 MPH.

THE LOW CLOUDS...SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES...OCCASIONAL FREEZING
DRIZZLE...FOG...AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS WELL HINDERING
TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE LATEST...MOST UP TO DATE FORECAST GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/FAIRBANKS.