Scattered thunderstorms moved into South Central Wisconsin along a cold front during the evening hours of June 15th. A single thunderstorm pulsed up briefly to severe levels, producing large hail and damaging wind gusts along a path along Interstate 94 from just west of Lake Mills to Johnson Creek in Jefferson County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms moved into South Central Wisconsin along a cold front during the evening hours of June 15th. A single thunderstorm pulsed up briefly to severe levels, producing large hail and damaging wind gusts along a path along Interstate 94 from just west of Lake Mills to Johnson Creek in Jefferson County. Additional forcing for ascent that helped produce thunderstorms along the front was provided by the differential cyclonic vorticity ahead of a short wave trough and upper level divergence in the right entrance region of an upper level jet acting on moderately unstable air in place over the region, with CAPE values between 1000 and 1300 J/kg.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 15, 7:31 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 831 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 .UPDATE... CONVECTION FINALLY GOT GOING THIS EVENING...JUST TOOK A LOT LONGER THAN JUST ABOUT ANY MODEL SIMULATED. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SFC LOW PRESSURE COMBO SHOWS UP NICELY IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY WITH A DISTINCT CIRCULATION MOVING EAST OF LA CROSSE. AT TIMES THE STORMS HAVE GOTTEN SOME RESPECTABLE DEPTH WITH LONG RANGE HAIL ESTIMATES PUSHING 1 1/2 INCHES. STORMS ARE STARTING TO INCREASE ALONG THE TRAILING TROF BACK INTO IOWA. THE HRRR FILLS THIS AREA UP WITH RAIN BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LIMITED GIVEN THE DECREASING PARAMETERS AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING. THE STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY ARE STRUGGLING AT THIS POINT. EXPECT MOST OF THE STORMS TO EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. THEN CLEARING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME FOG RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WITH WEAK WINDS AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. && .AVIATION/06Z TAFS/... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF WISCONSIN BY THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD AT 06Z. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY DUE TO CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE NEAR GROUND LEVEL. THEN DRIER AIR ARRIVES BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/ SHORT TERM... TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH. SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IOWA/MN SHORT WAVE AND VORTICITY MAX HAVE WEAKENED OVER IOWA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST. TAIL END OF PRECIP OVER IOWA SHOWS SIGNS OF SPLITTING AND BLOWING OUT...PER HRRR MODEL RUN AT 16Z. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH LOW LEVEL JET IS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI. PUTTING THIS ALL TOGETHER...WILL GO WITH MORE SCATTERED WORDING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE JUST DON/T SEE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION AFFECTING ALL PARTS OF OUR COUNTY WARNING AREA AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT PER OLDER MODEL RUNS. BASICALLY..IT LOOKS LIKE THE PALMYRA SPLIT AGAIN. MODELS DO NOT GENERATE DECENT LOW LEVEL JET...ONLY SOME 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS BELOW 35 KNOTS. SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE GIVEN CAPE OF 700 TO 1300 J/KG IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THINGS GRADUALLY QUIET DOWN AFTER 1 AM TONIGHT AFTER 850 AND 700 MB TROUGHS SLIDE EAST. SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WEST TO NORTHWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO IOWA AND ILLINOIS AREA. MODELS HAVE A DRY COLUMN FORECASTED...AND EXPECT ONLY SOME DAYTIME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH HEATING. MODELS HAVE 925 MB TEMPS IN +21C RANGE...WHICH SUGGESTS MAX TEMPS IN LOWER 80S. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST TO NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND MIXING TO THE 850 MB LEVEL WHERE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 20 KNOT RANGE. SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP SEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO MN AND NRN WI FOR LATE SUN NT...AND THEN ACROSS WI MON AND MON NT. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD INTO CENTRAL WI BY EARLY MON AFTERNOON AND THEN PROGRESS SWD TO THE IL BORDER BY EARLY MON EVENING. IF A SUFFICIENT N-S PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS...A PNEUMONIA FRONT WILL BE GENERATED AND SWEEP SSWWD ACROSS THE WRN SHORE OF LAKE MI AND ERN WI...AS THE NAM INDICATES. TEMPS WILL DROP FROM THE LOWER 80S INTO THE 50S LAKESIDE. IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAKER LIKE THE ECMWF OR GFS...MORE OF A GRADUAL CHANGE WILL OCCUR IN THE WINDS AND TEMPS. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AS WELL. THERE ARE FAIRLY LARGE MLCAPE DIFFERENCES ON THE MODELS BUT BELIEVE AT LEAST 1000 J/KG WILL OCCUR WITH MDT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE TSTORMS WILL HOWEVER QUICKLY MOVE EWD INTO THE COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LIMITING ANY STRONG OR SVR POTENTIAL TO A QUICK PULSE STORM. NELY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL THEN BRING A COOL BUT PLEASANT TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES. SOME MODELS HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SEWD FROM MN TOWARD IL ON TUE WHICH WOULD BRING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY LGT PCPN. BEST COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE HOWEVER MAY STAY JUST TO THE WEST AND WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW. LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND MID ATLANTIC STATES WED AND THU WHILE LEE SIDE TROUGHING OCCURS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. SRN WI WILL REMAIN DRY WED-THU DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE HIGH AND LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...BUT WITH A WARMING TREND ON LGT SLY WINDS AND FULL SUNSHINE. TSTORM CHANCES TO THEN INCREASE AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT WEAKENS AS THE UPPER TROUGH DE-AMPLIFIES AND LIFTS MORE INTO CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE AREA WITH WARM...HUMID...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. AVIATION/00Z TAFS/... WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TONIGHT. SCATTERD BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. UNDER THE STORMS VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO 3 TO 5 MILES WITH SOME FOG MIXED IN DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. MARINE.... NOT MUCH GOING ON WITH THE WINDS AND WAVES OVER THE NEARSHORE ZONES. EAST TO SOUTHEAST ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AFTER THE WEAK COLD FRONT THE WINDS WILL BECOME OFFSHORE. THERE IS A 2 TO 4 HOUR WINDOW SATURDAY EVENING FOR FOG DUE TO COOL WATER TEMPS WITH MOIST AIR OVER LAND MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO PUT THIS INTO FORECAST. UPDATE ON FORECAST WOULD BE NEEDED THIS EARLY THIS EVENING IF IT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAPPEN. && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. LM...NONE. && UPDATE...DAVIS TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...KAPELA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GEHRING
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 344 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-160930- MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- 344 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MOST LIKELY WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LMZ643>646-160930- SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI- PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI- NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI- WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL- 344 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ANY STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A COLD FRONT ACCELERATING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY GENERATE BRISK AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. MG WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
911 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 PM TSTM WND GST SUN PRAIRIE 43.18N 89.23W
06/15/2013 M46 MPH DANE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
MEBThe Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 34 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:38 UTC.
1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
There was a report from the public of large hail estimated to be 1 inch in diameter 2 miles west of Lake Mills.
The public reported trees, some up to 12 inches in diameter, and numerous branches blown down by thunderstorm wind gusts estimated at 60 mph (52 knots). A road sign was twisted by the winds along Interstate-94 just west of Lake Mills, and some lofting of tree debris was noted by a storm spotter.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, June 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 464499, 464507.