A very unstable airmass across extreme eastern Kansas, led to severe thunderstorm development, during the afternoon hours of June, 15, 2013. Damaging winds were observed with these storms.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
A very unstable airmass across extreme eastern Kansas, led to severe thunderstorm development, during the afternoon hours of June, 15, 2013. Damaging winds were observed with these storms.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 15, 1:14 PM CST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 214 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2013 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night) Issued at 158 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 The main concern in the next 12 to 24 hours deals with potential for severe convection this afternoon and this evening, with additional severe storms possible tonight or early Sunday morning. Convection developed early this afternoon in an axis of extremely unstable air characterized by MUCAPE values in the 3000 to as much as 5000 J/kg range. Excessively high precipitable water values, in or greater than the 99th percentile for this time of year, combined with slow storm movement will lead to localized flash flooding for areas that do see thunderstorms. Marginal wind shear, around 30 to as much as 35 knots seems to be main inhibitor for severe convection. But given the extreme instability severe convection is likely with the strongest storms. Large hail is possible but the biggest threat should be from damaging winds and localized flash flooding. There may be another round of storms tonight along an advancing cold front. But an MCV ahead of the front, which is aiding convective development currently in northwestern Missouri, makes projecting the front southward difficult. So there is considerable uncertainty with any potential for a second round. SPC short range ensemble data for convection allowing models highlight a period of time from 00Z to 06Z and based on 12Z deterministic models that seems reasonable. Convection should develop on that boundary this evening and then track to the south. The biggest question will be just how intense they may be as the move southward into the forecast area. Latest model runs, including the high-resolution WRF suggest some weakening is likely which limits the severe potential. This makes sense as shear decreases as the front approaches and instability weakens as well. Should any storms become severe with this activity damaging winds and localized flooding look to be the biggest threats. Large hail may also be a concern but with a decreasing trend to the convection, think winds will be the bigger issue. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 58 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 Monday through Saturday... Models show broad slow eastward progression of the upper ridge during the course of the week. Early on...forecast soundings continue to show potential for thunderstorms on Monday as the ridge remains knocked down limiting the cap. Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry. As the ridge builds in mid to late week wouldn't be surprised to see thunderstorms pass through on the edge of the advancing cap...best chances Thursday afternoon and/or evening. Temperatures will moderate from slightly below normal early in the week to slight above normal by late in the week as the ridge has fully built in. Bailey && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon) Issued at 1205 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 This is a very uncertain forecast for the next 12 to 18 hours. With a plethora of potential boundaries to initiate storms within the unstable airmass but only modest shear, this is just one of those days where storms could develop anywhere and basically any time this afternoon and this evening. So there is rather extended period of VCTS from this afternoon through early tomorrow morning. Models hint that the most probable time for storms in the area may be from 03 to 06Z. So have included a tempo TSRA group during that period of time. Otherwise, if convection shows itself, amendments will be issued. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. MO...NONE. && SHORT TERM...CDB LONG TERM...Bailey AVIATION...CDB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-161215- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS... THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL... DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME DURING THIS PERIOD...SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE MOST FAVORED PERIOD FOR MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE WEEK THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. CDB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
233 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
KSZ057-060-152015-
LINN KS-MIAMI KS-
233 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN LINN AND SOUTHEASTERN
MIAMI COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL 315 PM CDT...
AT 229 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PARKER...OR 9 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MOUND CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.
LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
LA CYGNE...PARKER...FONTANA...BEAGLE AND NEW LANCASTER.
THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS... FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.
LAT...LON 3822 9508 3824 9508 3855 9487 3844 9461
3838 9461 3816 9486
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 212DEG 20KT 3826 9493
JAThe Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:57 UTC.
7 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated up to 60 mph, with a small shed reported blown over.
The ASOS at Johnson County Executive, measured a thunderstorm wind gust at 62 mph.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated up to 60 mph. Amateur radio tower was blown over at 139th and Blackbob.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated up to 60 mph.
The ASOS at Johnson County Executive Airport, measured a thunderstorm wind gust at 60 mph.
Heavy rains, caused street flooding with impassable conditions, at 75th Street and Metcalf Avenue.
Trees and power lines were reported down, with thunderstorm wind gusts estimated up to 60 mph.
Thunderstorm wind gusts were estimated up to 60 mph, with tree limb damage reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, June 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 453909, 453910, 453906, 453911, 453912, 453904, 453907, 453908.