A warm and humid air mass was in place across the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorms formed in the unstable air mass across the Central Foothills and Piedmont.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A warm and humid air mass was in place across the Mid Atlantic. Thunderstorms formed in the unstable air mass across the Central Foothills and Piedmont.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 1:41 PM EST, 5 hours 23 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 241 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN US THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTH AND WEAKENING ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND PROVIDING A SLIGHT BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CANCELLED HEAT ADVISORY FOR METRO CENTERS DUE TO NLY FLOW PROVIDING LOWER DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES REST OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. COULD NOT JUSTIFY HAVING THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR METRO CENTERS THAT ARE NOT MEASURING ANY HOTTER THAN THE SURROUNDINGS (ALL OF WHICH ARE BELOW THE 105F CRITERION). AS OF 18Z...WEAK BOUNDARY ON EAST SIDE OF HIGH CENTERED OVER MIDWEST AS SHIFTED TO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AS NOTED BY SFC OBS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE AREA (LOWER 70S STILL IN CENTRAL VA). GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PIEDMONT AND WEST INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL WATCH FOR MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY SHIFTING SOUTH FROM THE OH/PA BORDER. VERY ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND THREAT. TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WANES AFTER SUNSET. WINDS EASE WITH MOISTURE RETURNING A BIT. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS TUESDAY MORNING (MINS WERE IN THE 80S IN THE METRO CENTERS). LEANED CLOSER TO MET FORECAST THAT IS PERFORMING BEST LATELY. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/... NO HEAT HEADLINE FOR WEDNESDAY AS OF YET DUE TO CONTINUE NLY FLOW AND MAV/MET DEWPOINT GUIDANCE DECREASING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPR 60S AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS AGAIN MID TO UPR 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW 100S. AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE HIGHLANDS...THOUGH THERE IS AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THE BALT-WASH METRO. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... BY MIDWEEK...BOTH THE SFC AND UPPER RIDGES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN...AND PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS OPPORTUNITY WILL LESSEN DAY BY DAY AS THE COLUMN IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN FURTHER WHILE THE RIDGE RETROGRADES AND WEAKENS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY... THIS IS A GOOD NEWS/BAD NEWS PROPOSITION. MORE MOISTURE IN THE AIRMASS MEANS THAT MAX TEMPS WILL REACH LEVELS WE SEE DURING DRIER HEAT WAVES...BUT THE MUGGY CONDITIONS MAKE THE HEAT INDEX HIGHER. THE GFS MOS HAS A 25-30 DEGREE DIURNAL RANGE IN SPOTS...WHICH IS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO REALIZE IN A MOIST AIRMASS. SO AM TAKING A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE WED/THU...AND UNDERCUTTING MAX TEMP GUIDANCE SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY WHEN THE MUGGIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. RESULTANT HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON... PUSHING 105 IN THE URBAN CENTERS. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION. PRECIP CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANY DAY...BUT CHANCES ARE SMALL WED/THU AND WILL LIKELY NEED SOME TERRAIN ASSISTANCE AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MIXES DOWN IN THE AFTERNOONS. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE A BIT FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. COLD FRONT SAGS INTO...AND PERHAPS THROUGH...THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS INCREASES PRECIP CHANCES AND SINCE THE BOUNDARY IS FAIRLY STRONG...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. THE AIRMASS REMAINS EXTREMELY MOIST...WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES FORECAST IN THE GFS...SO HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS ARE AGGRESSIVE IN PUSHING THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY. NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON THAT YET BUT WILL AT LEAST TREND THAT WAY. IF THE FRONT MOVES SLOWER...WE WILL NEED TO CONSIDER A HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE HWO AS WELL. IF THE FRONT DOES INDEED PASS... EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR PREVAILS THRU TONIGHT WITH NLY FLOW AROUND 10 KT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 INTO THE EVENING. LATE NIGHT MVFR MIST TONIGHT. VFR EXPECTED OVERALL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...EXCEPT IN PATCHY MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHRA/TSRA. VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE AREA. && .MARINE... NLY CHANNELING FLOW 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTS UP TO 20 KT AT LEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OUT IN THE MAIN PORTION OF THE BAY (NOT THE MORE PROTECTED TRIBUTARIES). A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THESE GUSTS. ELSEWHERE EXPECT WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. TSTMS POSSIBLE ON THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD... INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THOSE TSTMS...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME BRIEF SLY WIND CHANNELING IS POSSIBLE JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...BAJ NEAR TERM...BAJ SHORT TERM...BAJ LONG TERM...JCE AVIATION...JCE/BAJ MARINE...JCE/BAJ
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 204 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057- 171315- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 204 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE METRO AREAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504- WVZ050>053-055-501>506-171315- WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON- ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- 204 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 100 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HEAT ADVISORIES THAT INCLUDE THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON METRO AREA MAY BE REQUIRED. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY...BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. JACKSON
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 159 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:04 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
There was a tree down at the intersection of North River Road and Bear Trap Farm Road.
There was a tree down on Brooks Gap Road and Route 259.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 471218, 471219.