Dust Storm in Texas, November 16, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
548 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

.UPDATE...
WINDS SPEEDS HAVE STARTED THEIR DECLINE ACROSS THE AREA PER RECENT
WTXM OBSERVATIONS. THE WIND AND BLOWING DUST ADVISORIES SHOULD
EXPIRE AT 00 UTC/6 PM CST AS SCHEDULED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VSBYS RESTRICTED TO ABOUT 3 TO 5 MILES DUE TO BLDU WILL IMPROVE
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THE STRONG SW WINDS DECREASE. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT THOUGH. ON SUNDAY...WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND STRENGTHEN BACK TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KTS
SUSTAINED ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDDAY. THEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE
WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH KCDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...
AS WE EXPECTED EARLIER THIS WEEK...TODAY HAD THE MAKINGS OF A DUSTY
AND WINDY DAY AND NOTHING SHORT OF THIS HAS BEEN THE RESULT.
UNFORTUNATELY...CONDITIONS ARE WORSE THAN WE HAD HOPED AS SOME RURAL
AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING POOR VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT TIMES.
ALSO...RECENT GUSTS HAVE PUSHED NEARLY 50 KNOTS AT THE KLBB AIRPORT.
OF INTEREST...OUR WSR-88D HAS BEEN SAMPLING MULTIPLE ENHANCED SEGMENTS
OF BLOWING DUST EMANATING FROM THE COTTON BELT CORRIDOR ALONG
BROWNFIELD HIGHWAY AND REACHING INTO FLOYD COUNTY. IT/S NO
COINCIDENCE THAT THIS AREA ALSO CORRESPONDS WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND A VOID OF BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS COMPARED TO
ELSEWHERE...SO DEEPER MIXING IN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAP
SOME HIGHERS GUSTS IN THE NEAR TERM.

BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING IS STILL ON TRACK AS WE APPROACH 6 PM...SO
WE ANTICIPATE THE CURRENT ADVISORIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON
TIME. KEPT THE INHERITED MILD LOWS INTACT TONIGHT AS SWLY WINDS WILL
HOLD AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE NIGHT.

AS THE BASE OF THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH GLANCES THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A WEAK PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL ZIP
THROUGH FOLLOWED BY A MORE TOLERABLE GRADIENT FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY AHEAD. GIVEN DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING WESTERLY WINDS...THIS
PATTERN FAVORS SIDING WITH THE MILDER MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. A DRY
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL THEN EDGE INTO OUR NERN COUNTIES NEAR OR
JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REVISITED IN
LATER FORECASTS AS MODELS ARE STILL IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH
THIS FRONT/S SPEED OF ARRIVAL.

LONG TERM...
NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL BE IN FLOW BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
TEXAS.  POLAR JET WILL BE TO OUR NORTH FROM BC TO ILLINOIS.  A MINOR
TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE LOCATED ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND APPROACH
WEST TEXAS BY MONDAY MORNING.  INTO MID WEEK...ZONAL FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THOUGH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE SHOULD APPROACH ON TUESDAY
WITH LARGER SCALE TROUGHINESS OUT WEST IN A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED BY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS LEADING THE WAY ON THE
PROGRESSION OF SAID TROUGH WITH THE ECM CUTTING IT OFF OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.  GIVEN THE SPREAD IN NWP INCLUDING THE
CMC/DGEX...WILL TREND FORECAST BASED ON A SYNOPTIC SCALE BLEND.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN JUST NORTHEAST OF US
ON MONDAY MORNING WITH ESELY FLOW PERSISTING MUCH OF THE DAY.  THE
WINDS MAY GET UP TO THE 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE WHERE THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LEE LOW IN
SERN CO WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED. A WEAK FRONT SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT STALL WELL TO
OUR NORTH. GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL STICK AROUND UNTIL
THURSDAY. THE ECM SOLUTION DRIVES A COLD AIR BY 00Z FRIDAY THANKS
TO A NORTHERN TROUGH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH THE GFS HOLDING OFF
UNTIL 00Z SATURDAY. THE PATTERN OF THE ECM LOOKS SOMEWHAT
SUSPICIOUS ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
THOUGH WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED LATE-WEEK GRIDS AWAITING
GREATER CLARITY. HOWEVER...THINGS HAVE BEEN TRENDING COOLER AND
WETTER ACROSS THE BOARD...ITS MAINLY A QUESTION OF TIMING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        42  69  31  62  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
TULIA         44  71  34  61  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     46  73  36  62  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     46  73  36  60  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       48  74  36  62  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   48  73  39  60  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    47  74  37  60  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     50  77  36  65  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPUR          51  77  38  64  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     53  80  40  66  44 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: TXZ021>024-027>030-033>036-039>041.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: TXZ021>025-027>031-033>037-039>042.

&&

33/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
603 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

TXZ021>044-180015-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
603 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.