Winter Storm in Texas, December 21, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/ COMPLEX AVIATION FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
MAIN CONCERN CENTERED ON TIMING OF SNOW SLATED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.

AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF
EAST CENTRAL NM. TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL SHOWS THIS PRECIP MAKING ITS
WAY TO THE KAMA TERMINAL BY AROUND 13Z...15Z AT KDHT...AND 16Z AT
KGUY. TEMPERATURES AT ALL THREE TERMINALS ARE BELOW FREEZING SO
EXPECT THAT WHEN THIS PRECIP REACHES THE TERMINALS IT WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF -SN. CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY SHOWS HIGHER
REFLECTIVITIES EMBEDDED IN THIS PRECIP AREA IN CONJUNCTION TO COOLING
CLOUD TOPS AS SHOWN IN THE CURRENT IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. GIVEN THESE
SIGNATURES...EXPECT SNOW TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AT TIMES. THE UPPER
TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING AND
WILL EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WHERE IT WILL PUSH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING AND WEAKEN. THUS EXPECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY AROUND 00Z
SUN. IFR AND LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WITH
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR OVER THE LAST 3-6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEEDLESS TO SAY UPDATES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

CLK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
WELL THE FIRST DAY OF WINTER WILL GREET US WITH SOME WINTRY WEATHER
TODAY! THE MOMENT OF TRUTH IS UPON US AS PRECIPITATION IS SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD THE PANHANDLES THIS EARLY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES HAVE SOLIDLY BEEN AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS ALMOST THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THAT FREEZING LINE WILL BE CONSTANTLY MONITORED THIS
MORNING FOR ANY MOVEMENT BACK TO THE EAST OR WEST. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES MAY BE SPARED THE WORST OF THE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AS IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO REACH BELOW
FREEZING (IF THEY DO AT ALL). THINK THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE
COUNTIES COULD SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATER TODAY SO KEPT THEM IN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NOW.

ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION IS DEFINITELY EVIDENT ON INFRARED
SATELLITE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS CLOUD TOPS
CONTINUE TO COOL. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR
AND HEAVIEST WINTRY MIX FOR THE PANHANDLE REGION. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
HAS DEVELOPED JUST EAST OF ALBUQUERQUE AND MAY INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES
SOME WHEN IT ACTUALLY BEGINS MOVING EAST...SO DO THINK THE FREEZING
LINE COULD MOVE EAST A LITTLE BUT WITH PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY
WINDS...DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE OUR SAVING GRACE FROM SOME OF THE
AREA DEALING WITH FREEZING RAIN THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS EARLY MORNING...LOOKS LIKE FREEZING RAIN HAS MADE IT INTO
THE AMARILLO METRO AREA. THE TEMPERATURE HAS DROPPED 2 DEGREES SINCE
WALKING IN THE DOOR AT MIDNIGHT WHICH DOES NOT SPELL WELL FOR MORE
OF A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SOLUTION UNTIL LATER ON. IT DOES APPEAR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW
OCCURS BY MID MORNING. IT WILL BE VERY INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE
12Z SOUNDING/WEATHER BALLOON RELEASE LOOKS LIKE AND WHAT THE MOISTURE
PROGRESSION IS IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION.

SO WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...LOOKS LIKE WE CONTINUE TO BE IN A
WATCH...WAIT...AND SEE MODE FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH 10AM BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW OCCURS. REGARDLESS...THINK ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH...BUT WHERE THERE
IS ICE...THERE WILL BE LESS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.

FOR THE DAYTIME PERIOD TODAY...BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW AND MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. LOOKS
LIKE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTEST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN PANHANDLES (AROUND 1-2 INCHES) TO POTENTIALLY 3-5 INCHES
ELSEWHERE WITH A POTENTIAL LOCALIZED BULLSEYE OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FULLY COMMIT TO 6+ INCH
ACCUMULATIONS SO HAVE NOT UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
ANYWHERE...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR
THE AMARILLO METRO AREA...2-4 INCHES OF SNOW SEEMS REASONABLE.

WITH THIS BEING A BUSY TRAVEL HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WE CANNOT STRESS
ENOUGH TO SLOW DOWN AND CHECK THE WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE
HEADING OUT! IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO TRAVEL ON INTERSTATE 40 EAST INTO
OKLAHOMA...YOU MAY WANT TO RECONSIDER AS A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM IS
IMPACTING THE OKC METRO AREA. PLEASE BE SAFE AND BE CAREFUL OUT THERE!

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...SO WILL THE SNOW AS IT ENDS SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

KNS

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

WELL ONE THING CAN REALLY DESCRIBE THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER
TONIGHT...HIGH AND DRY! HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE AREA AS CLOUD COVER HANGS
AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
MODERATE BY MONDAY TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY GETTING
WELL INTO THE 50S. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BARREL THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
INTO THE EXACT TIMING. REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE COLDER ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S AREAWIDE WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND AS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE THE NORM.

KNS

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

KNS

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...HUTCHINSON...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...
     DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HARTLEY...MOORE...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
443 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-212300-
CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB-
HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON-
GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH-
443 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS EARLY MORNING BEFORE A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED BY MID MORNING. SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE ENDING LATER THIS
EVENING.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KNS