Hail in South Dakota, July 20, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
152 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2013

FLATTENED CONUS RIDGE WILL SUPPORT WNW FLOW THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SUBTLE WEAK IMPULSES. LL MOISTURE PLUME WILL WAVER
ACROSS THE REGION WITH EACH IMPULSE...SUPPORTING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING. THE NEXT IN A SERIES
OF IMPULSES WILL ADVECT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE FA...MAINLY SD. BEST
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GIVEN IMPULSE TIMING AND DIURNAL EFFECTS. ANOTHER WAVE WILL TRAVERSE
THE REGION SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF LSA AND HEIGHT/FLOW EFFECTS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND. HOWEVER...LINGERING LL MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONVECTION...ESP OVER THE BH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...A LL INVERTED TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...BEING SUPPORT A BY A
PASSING IMPULSE. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND EAST OF
THE TROUGH...AND ESP THE BH AND ADJACENT PLAINS. STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 45 TO 55 KNOTS COUPLED WITH FORECAST ML CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH EVENING...TRENDING SOUTH WITH
TIME. PW VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE HIGH FOR THE AREA AROUND 1.5
INCHES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME STORMS.
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AND WX FOR THIS.

SUNDAY...REFLECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE SFC PER THE NEXT ADVANCING
IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT A MORNING THREAT ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SW
SD...IN THE RECYCLING LL MOISTURE PLUME. HOWEVER...BETTER CHANCES
WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS FAR SW PORTIONS OF THE
FA. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL RESIDE THERE AND INTO THE BH
GIVEN DIURNAL HEATING IN THE MOISTURE BUBBLE. HOWEVER...THE
ADVANCING ND IMPULSE AND ITS ASSOCIATED HEIGHT/FLOW EFFECTS WILL
ADD LITTLE TO NO SUPPORT TO THE EXPECTED SW FA CONVECTION...WITH
WEAK SHEAR SUPPORTING A LIKELY PULSE ENV. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THERE. HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE
DOES ADVECT NORTH INTO NW SD...AN ISOLD TS MAY BE POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD BE BORDERLINE SEVERE/SEVERE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2013

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL KEEP NWRLY
FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. A VARIETY OF SHORT
WAVES SLIDING THROUGH WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
MANY PARTS OF THE AREA. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SAT JUL 20 2013

SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFT/TONIGHT OVER THE
BLKHLS INTO WRN/CNTRL SD. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY OVER SWRN/S CNTRL SD. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...77
AVIATION...77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
257 AM MDT SAT JUL 20 2013

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-211400-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
257 AM MDT (357 AM CDT) SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE BLACK HILLS
AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY WILL BE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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