Rip Current in Florida, July 20, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
402 PM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT AND SUNDAY]...A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE FCST
AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AS A MID UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA OPENS AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH BUT REMAINS
TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...THE VERY MOIST ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY
OVER LAND ZONES AND NOT SO MUCH OVER MARINE ZONES)...BUT INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY AND INTO FIRST PART OF THE DAY
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENHANCES LIFT OVER THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO
THE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE PROLIFIC RAIN MAKERS. THIS COMBINED
WITH RATHER SLOW STORM MOTION COULD RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING IN
LOCALIZED AREAS. CONSIDERED A FFA FOR THE AREA...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 2 INCHES OR LESS ACROSS
THE FCST AREA EXCEPT FOR IN SPOTTY AREAS. IF WE GET A BETTER HANDLE
OF WHERE WE BELIEVE THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR INTO
TOMORROW...MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A FFA LATER TONIGHT BASED ON WHAT
RAINFALL OCCURS THIS EVENING. CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THAT ALONG WITH PCPN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS A LITTLE LOWER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. HIGHS TOMORROW IN THE UPPER
80S MOST LOCATIONS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. 12/DS

[SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...SURFACE HIGH ACROSS WESTLANT
WILL RIDGE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GMEX BRINGING MORE WATER VAPOR
INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER HANGING ON TO AROUND TWO INCHES.
CAPE BACK TO 3000...AND LAYER AVERAGE RH ~ 80%. LI IS FORECAST ABOUT
-8. RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF AND MOVE WEST. AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL DIG IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BRING AN END TO HIGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
NORTHEAST...MIDLANT...AND OHIO VALLEY STATES. PERTURBATIONS IN THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
MONDAY. EXPECTING MAINLY ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED OVERNIGHT BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. BASIN-WIDE RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDOWN TUESDAY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A.25 FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST
AND TAPERING DOWN TO A BIT OVER HALF AN INCH ELSEWHERE. LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

77/BD

&&

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...NO PLANS TO ALTER THE
EXTENDED. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THE WAVENUMBER 5 OUTPUT INDICATES AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES WILL BREAK DOWN SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE WEEK WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM HUDSON BAY INTO LOUISIANA
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH. 77/BD

THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AS
THE BASE OF THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH MAKES IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST EXPANDS EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS
MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG WITH A WESTERN EXTENSION OF A
RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED...WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO INCLUDE HIGH
END SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE
REGION. THEN TAPERED PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BACK TO ISOLATED AND
SCATTERED AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS INLAND AREAS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH UPPER 80S ALONG THE
BEACHES. A BIT MORE SUNSHINE THE LATE IN THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO REACH THE MID 90S INLAND
AREAS AND NEAR 90 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.

/22

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DISSIPATING
OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. FOR MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS STRETCHES
WEST INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THE RESULT IS A LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO
WESTERLY FLOW. LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE
LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO BE A HAZARD IN ANY STRONGER MARINE STORMS. 12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (21/00Z TAF ISSUANCE)...GENERAL VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AROUND THE AREA. MAY SEE PERIODS OF IFR (OR EVEN BRIEF
LIFR) IN AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY. GENERAL
LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW. PATCHY LIGHT OVERNIGHT FOG
POSSIBLE...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES OF
DEVELOPMENT. THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN HEAVIER RAIN LATE IN THE DAY
TODAY MORE LIKELY TO SEE THE LIGHT FOG TONIGHT. 12/DS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      74  88  75  90  76 /  40  50  30  60  30
PENSACOLA   75  88  76  88  76 /  40  50  30  60  40
DESTIN      78  85  77  86  77 /  40  50  30  60  30
EVERGREEN   72  89  72  90  74 /  40  50  30  70  40
WAYNESBORO  71  89  71  91  73 /  30  50  30  60  30
CAMDEN      72  89  71  89  74 /  30  50  40  60  40
CRESTVIEW   72  90  72  89  74 /  40  50  30  60  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA
     ROSA...

MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
516 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-220000-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
516 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A SPRING
TIDAL CYCLE...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST ALONG AREA
BEACHES SUNDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OUTLOOK.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-220000-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
516 AM CDT SAT JUL 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHWARD
MOVING TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS...WILL LIKELY CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KNOTS AT TIMES...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A FEW
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDS...WAVES AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN MARINE STORMS DURING
THE OUTLOOK.