A east-west oriented warm front was located near the Ohio/Michigan state line. While surface based CAPE was in excess of 1000 j/kg, extensive cloud cover limited the coverage and intensity of thunderstorm development.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.
A east-west oriented warm front was located near the Ohio/Michigan state line. While surface based CAPE was in excess of 1000 j/kg, extensive cloud cover limited the coverage and intensity of thunderstorm development. One thunderstorm produced isolated wind damage in Williams County, near Stryker.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 4, 12:41 PM EST, 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 141 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S. && .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 113 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 GRID UPDATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HAVE ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SCT SHOWERS POPPING UP AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS REACHED WITH SB CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. LATEST HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE CAPTURED THIS DECENTLY AND SUSPECT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SCT TSRA ACROSS ENTIRE AREA THRU 00Z. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPS AND SKY COVER GRIDS. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS 100+ KT JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH PRESENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH A CLASSIC TREBLE CLEF SIGNATURE DEVELOPING ON THE 1.5 PVU SURFACE TODAY...AND THE MAIN PV LOBE EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. THIS STRONG PV ADVECTION WILL COMBINE WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND SOME SEMBLANCE OF A COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE TO SUPPORT CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SURFACE LOW. WHAT THIS MEANS LOCALLY IS THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW/THETA-E ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A LITANY OF CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL REMAIN DRAPED JUST TO OUR NORTH AND SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES DOWNSTREAM OF APPROACHING TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF OUR AREA DRY TODAY AS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN LOWER MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN WEAK/BROAD 300-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ON NEWEST NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS. NOTHING IN THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY OR HI-RES GUIDANCE TO SUPPORT ALTERING DRY FORECAST AFTER REMAINING SHOWERS EXIT AROUND 12Z...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS AN ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORM IS CERTAINLY NOT OUTSIDE THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND EXPECTED TRAIN OF W-E ORIENTED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. CONFIDENCE IN HIGH TEMP FORECAST IS SIMILARLY LOW. ANY SUSTAINED BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER COULD ALLOW HIGHS TO SURGE WELL INTO THE MID 80S GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AROUND 16C. EXPECT THERE WILL STILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH AND WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LITTLE CHANGES DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WE REMAIN IN A REGION OF BROAD WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION. LACK OF CLEAR FORCING MECHANISM AT THIS POINT WARRANTS JUST A LOW CHANCE OF POPS. LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD...LIKELY NOT DROPPING MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 60S IN THIS VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. COULD ALSO BE A FEW AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN POOLING MOISTURE AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS BENEATH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION. MAV AND MET GUIDANCE BOTH SUPPORT PERIODS OF FOG BUT WITH THE FRONT NORTH OF HERE AND VERY LITTLE FOG THIS MORNING...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW AND LET LATER SHIFT MODIFY AS NECESSARY. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 VRY INTENSE SW TROUGH AND ATTENDANT UPR JET STREAK CARVING OUT AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE ACRS THE CNTRL ROCKIES THIS MORNING. SFC LOW CNTRD OVR SE CO WILL LIFT NEWD AND OCCLUDE INTO SAT MORNING ACRS SERN SD AND YIELD A SLW EWD EJECTION OF SFC OCCLUSION. BROAD/MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL PERSIST EWD ACRS THE LAKES/OH VALLEY YET W/MINIMAL BACKGROUND FOCUS. THUS KEPT W/A MINIMIZED LOWER BLENDED POP THROUGH SAT AFTN. CONTD EWD PROGRESSION OF OCCLUDED FNT LT SAT NIGHT WILL BRING ABT A PD OF SHRA/TSRA AND LIKELY LINGER ACRS ERN ZONES THROUGH SUN AFTN. OTRWS STG NEG THETA-E ADVTN SHLD WRAP QUICKLY EWD SWD OF MID LVL CYCLONE SUN NIGHT. SFC RIDGING AND FLATTENING FLW ALOFT FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THIS SYS FOR MID PD W/ABV NORMAL TEMPS DVLPG LT PD IN RESPONSE TO RENEWED DEEP WRN TROUGHING TWD DYS 6-7. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 140 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 ABUNDANT MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH TRIGGER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S HAVE LED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY TOWARD KFWA SO INCLUDED A TEMPO TSRA THERE COUPLED WITH RADAR TRENDS. WEAKER RETURNS TOWARD KSBN SO KEPT THIS AS JUST A SHRA. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT REMAIN UNCERTAIN FOR MANY REASONS. CONTINUED UNSTABLE AND MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE COULD ALLOW SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT NO STRONG FORCING MAKES TIMING ANY PCPN AT TAF SITES NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. THEREFORE LEFT MENTION OUT AFTER THIS AFTERNOON. FOG AND STRATUS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT LIKE THIS MORNING COULD BE HINDERED BY ANY CONVECTION AND LINGERING HIGHER CLOUDS. KEPT A MVFR GROUP IN FOR NOW AND WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...NONE. MI...NONE. OH...NONE. LM...NONE. && UPDATE...CEO SYNOPSIS...CEO SHORT TERM...AGD LONG TERM...T AVIATION...LASHLEY VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NATIONALWEATHERSERVICE.NORTHERNIN.GOV WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 504 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-051000- LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE- PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN- MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN- CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE- HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND... MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA... KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON... WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW... WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE... MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH... NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR... BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 504 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 /404 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX LMZ043-046-051000- NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI- 504 AM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
140 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013
OHZ001-002-005-041815-
FULTON OH-HENRY OH-WILLIAMS OH-
140 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD WESTERN FULTON...WILLIAMS AND
NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTIES...
AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MONTPELIER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.
PEA SIZE HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
PIONEER...
WEST UNITY AND STRYKER...
WEST JEFFERSON...
PULASKI...
KUNKLE...
ALVORDTON...ZONE AND ELMIRA...
GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES.
SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.
LAT...LON 4145 8419 4145 8466 4163 8476 4171 8451
4170 8438 4171 8435 4171 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 259DEG 12KT 4157 8458
BENTLEYThe Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:01 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management officials reported trees and power lines down in the Stryker area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, October 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 477429.