Damaging Wind in North Carolina, June 27, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 AM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEK
PRODUCING WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH IN TOMORROW...LIKELY PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL STILL EXIST EACH DAY. A
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM...ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MCS IS BECOMING
ISOLATED AS IT MOVES EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY WITH THE
MCS TO SPREAD INTO THE MTNS BEFORE DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
SVR REPORTS WITH THIS LINE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
THE BIG QUESTION IS IF THIS LINE HOLDS TOGETHER AS IT MOVES EAST OR
DISSIPATES THEN REACTIVATES LATER. EITHER WAY...CAT POP IS
WARRANTED ACROSS THE MTNS WITH LIKELY MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA THRU
THE DAY. END THE LIKELY POP FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ORGANIZED LINES OR CLUSTERS OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE NEAR 90.

CONVECTION SHUD DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE EVENING...BUT ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE MTNS TOWARD DAYBREAK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
TOWARD THE AREA. LOWS SHUD AGAIN BE NEAR 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF EARLY THU MORNING...FRIDAY MORNING SOLIDLY NW FLOW WILL OCCUR
ACRS THE CWFA WITH PRONOUNCED TROUGHING IN PLACE UP THE ERN
SEABOARD...THOUGH WITHOUT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. POPS GENERALLY
FOLLOW THE DIURNAL INSTABILITY CYCLE. WE WILL BE ON THE UPSTREAM SIDE
OF THE TROUGH INITIALLY AND A SLIGHT MIDLEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
MAY INITIALLY RESTRICT CONVECTION...BUT THE TROUGH DEEPENS TO OUR
WEST AS THE DAY GOES ON SO THIS FEATURE WILL BE SHORT LIVED. BY AFTN
SFC CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ENOUGH FOR THUNDER CHANCES IN
CHANCE RANGE. MID-UPPER FLOW IS MODEST BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40
KT /MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL IN NATURE/ IS TOO STRONG TO IGNORE. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW STORMS PRODUCED LARGE HAIL OR DMGG STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS. THE STRONGER FLOW RELATIVE TO THAT SEEN RECENTLY MAY BE A
BENEFIT...KEEPING STORMS MOVING AND LIMITING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

FRIDAY NIGHT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOOKS TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE MODELS INDICATE MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE NAM THINKS SFC DEWPOINTS WILL
BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE DEPICTED ON THE GFS. AS THE
MID-UPPER TROUGH DIGS FURTHER SOUTH FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
MIDDAY...SO IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO LEAN IN FAVOR OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. SHEAR IS A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NORTH
AND WEST NEARER THE DEEPENING TROUGH. INCLUDED CHC POPS ON A DIURNAL
CURVE...THOUGH NAM DEPICTS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING NEAR THE
GULF COAST DURING THE DAY SAT WHICH MOVES UP OVER THE PIEDMONT SAT
NIGHT. THUS KEPT CHC POPS THERE OVERNIGHT.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL BOTH FRI/SAT NIGHTS. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY...RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AS
THICKNESSES DIP SOME WITH THE COOLER AIR ALOFT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS JUST AFTER A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE WITH A LARGE TROUGH SETTLING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE TROUGH DEEPENS CONSIDERABLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND THE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON THE OUTER
FRINGE OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE GENERAL PATTERN
UNSETTLED AND AFTER A DRIER SATURDAY THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK IN. THE CWA WILL REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE
HIGH FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED TERM...AND WITH THE RESURGENCE OF
BERMUDA HIGH EARLY IN THE WEEK COMES MORE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OFF
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THIS SETUP WILL DEVELOP SOME INSTABILITY EACH
AFTERNOON AND DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE A FEATURE EVERY DAY IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE. MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGTLY BELOW
AVERAGE AND LOWS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE STRONG
MCS DIVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM E TN. THEREFORE...HAVE SPED UP THE
TSRA INCLUSION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WRN TAFS WHERE TSRA ARE
ALREADY AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IN FACT...TS IS INCLUDED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY AT ALL SITES AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AND MOVES
THRU WITH THE MCS. WILL STILL BE SOME MVFR OR IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE
AREA AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...BUT IT MAY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
PREVIOUS NITES. FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP BEFORE...BUT MAY NOT LAST AS
LONG IF CONVECTION DISRUPTS THE FORMATION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
OVERNIGHT FOR ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD AND FOG FORMATION.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS IN THE AREA. BRIEF DRYING IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NW ON
SAT BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RESTRICTIONS BECOMING LIKELY AGAIN.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-07Z
KCLT       HIGH  91%     HIGH  98%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       MED   74%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%
KAND       HIGH  95%     HIGH  95%     HIGH 100%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
319 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-271930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
319 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A WEAK FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA BOTH THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY WILL TRIGGER TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...A
FEW OF WHICH ARE LIKELY TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LG