Flood and Hail in Kansas, June 27, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
151 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE AHEAD OF THE
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND MESO/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH WILL
DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE MOST
INTENSE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN WITH IMPACT DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING. THE IMPETUS INTO THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL HINGE ON POTENTIAL COLD POOL
AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOWS...WHICH COULD DRIVE MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE ELEVATED SEVERE RISK FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS GUSTS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IS STILL ON TRACK AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME
BETWEEN THE AMPLIFIED WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN TROF.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING TEMPERATURE TRENDS...SHOWING BELOW
CLIMO TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROF RETROGRADES WEST
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PORTION OF THE PLAINS. THIS MAY ALSO
LEAD TO MODEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY MID-WEEK.

DARMOFAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL TERMINALS.

UNTIL CONVECTION DEVELOPS...TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH
RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. AS THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM NORTHEAST OF KRSL AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS. CURRENT THINKING IS TIMING WILL BEGIN AT 20-21Z FOR
KRSL AND MOVE SOUTHEAST TO KCNU BY 00Z FOR MAIN LINE. THERE MAYBE
SOME GIVE AND TAKE WITH THAT TIMING...BUT THE LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...HRRR/RAP HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR THE LAST
FEW RUNS WITH THAT TIMING.

DURING THE CONVECTION HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS. GUSTS OF 60MPH OR GREATER ARE POSSIBLE. HEAVY
RAIN WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES TO BE REDUCED AND CEILINGS TO DROP.
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMP GROUP FOR MODERATE THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING
INTO MVFR...BUT COULD SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
OF STORMS...AT LEAST BRIEFLY.

AFTER THE STORMS PASS...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BE NORTH
TO NORTHEASTERLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  94  66  89 /  50  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      70  94  65  88 /  50   0  10  10
NEWTON          70  93  64  87 /  50  10  10  10
ELDORADO        70  93  63  87 /  60  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  94  65  90 /  50  10  10  10
RUSSELL         68  95  63  88 /  20   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      68  95  63  88 /  30   0  10  10
SALINA          69  94  65  88 /  40   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       69  94  64  88 /  50   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  93  66  88 /  60  20  10   0
CHANUTE         71  92  63  86 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            71  91  63  86 /  60  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    73  92  64  88 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-281930-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
230 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS OVERNIGHT.

DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 112 DEGREES.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HEAT ADVISORY STATEMENT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

COOLER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE
SEVERE RISK IS LOW...A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/JMB/ES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
354 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

KSZ032-272130-
RUSSELL-
354 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 352 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PARADISE...OR 18 MILES NORTH OF
RUSSELL...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
LOCATED NORTHEAST OF LURAY...ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3914 9903 3914 9880 3914 9849
      3887 9848 3886 9875 3901 9905
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 306DEG 22KT 3915 9884

KLEINSASSER