Flash Flooding in North Carolina, June 2 to 3, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH
ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MOISTURE GRADUALLY RETURNING OVER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1030 PM...THE LATEST WV IMAGERY AND THE RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
THE UPR LVL VORT MAX A LTL OVER HALFWAY THRU THE CWFA. THE LEADING
CONVECTION IS ABOUT THRU THE SE CORNER OF THE FA (UNION NC)...AND
BEHIND THIS...VERY LITTLE IS SEEN ON RADAR. LOOKING AT THE 12Z
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS...IT SEEMS THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH LINGERING
SYNOPTIC FORCING ATOP A MOIST AIR MASS AND CONTINUED SWLY 850 MB
FLOW OF 25-30 KTS...WILL KEEP A DECENT CHC POP THRU THE OVERNIGHT.
TEMPS HAVE COOLED FROM THE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO MAINLY UPR 60S
ACRS MOST OF THE AREA...AND THEY WILL PROBABLY HOLD AROUND THOSE
READINGS OVERNIGHT.

THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH DECENT UPPER DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE MAY WELL PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP OR WASHES OUT. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE OF A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE ON MONDAY...BUT
WITH A SHEAR AXIS OUT OVER INTERSTATE 77 WHERE THE BEST CHC OF
STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA WILL BE THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. WILL CONTINUE TO
FEATURE A RELATIVELY LOW DIURNAL TEMP TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...PRECIP SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY MON NIGHT AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA. DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOUNDING SHOWING GOOD MID LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION ON TUE IN PERSISTENT NE FLOW. THEREFORE...I KEPT THE
FORECAST MOSTLY DRY MAINLY OVER THE PIEDMONT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
UPSLOPE PRECIP IN THE MTNS.

TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFT EAST. THE CENTER OF
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WED WITH ITS SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION. CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD
TO JUICY CONDITIONS WITH PW VALUES REACHING NEAR 1.5 INCHES BY WED
NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT CAPPING INVERSION WILL WEAKEN
AND SURFACE TO 700 MB LAYER WILL BECOME SATURATED. IN
ADDITION...RELATIVELY WEAK SBCAPE OF 300-500 J/KG WILL BE PRESENT.
HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN REFLECTED ACCORDINGLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE AROUND 2-3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF NOON SUNDAY...AS WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...USED MODEL BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF WITH MORE WEIGHT GIVEN TO
THE EC.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DURING
START OF THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A RATHER LOW AMPLITUDE
TROF PUSHING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL EXTEND ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY...AND EVENTUALLY MOVE
EASTWARD LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE TROF EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...PROXIMITY TO A BUILDING TROPICAL
FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL YIELD SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THUS...EXPECTING INCREASES IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
MARINE AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION.  NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FORCING ALOFT...THEREFORE WENT WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAINLY ON A DIURNAL HEATING TYPE PATTERN.
WOULD LIKE TO NOTE THAT POPS DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND COULD CHANGE AS THEY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TROPICAL
FORMATION...WHICH IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE.

WITH RESPECT TO THE TROPICAL SYSTEM...THERE IS BROAD MODEL
DISCONTINUITY REGARDING THE OVERALL TRACK AND INTENSITY.  THE GFS
SEEMS TO TREND WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE GULF MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHCENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN WEAKENING FURTHER AS
ITS REMNANTS CROSS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC WHERE IT DISSIPATES.  THE
ECMWF TAKES THE SAME TRACK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT KEEPS A MUCH
MORE ORGANIZED TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING OFF SHORE NEAR SAVANNAH
GEORGIA...AND BRUSHING THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA BEFORE EJECTING OUT TO SEA WITH THE
UPPER TROF.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...AN AREA OF DECAYING CONVECTION HAS ENTERED THE KCLT
AREA...WITH A LIGHT STEADY RAIN OCCURRING. SOME ACTIVITY STILL TO
THE SW HEADING TOWARD THE TERMINAL. GIVEN THAT KCLT IS NOT AS
UNSTABLE AS AREAS TO THE SW...NOT CONFIDENT THE SOLID LINE WILL
REACH THE TERMINAL...SO WILL CONTINUE A TEMPO FOR TS FOR FIRST THREE
HOURS OF THE TAF. THEREAFTER...THE MOIST AIR MASS LOOKS TO SUPPORT A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...BUT MOSTLY IN FORM OF SHRA. SO
WILL NOT MENTION TS OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER ISSUE IS HOW MUCH STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WET GROUND. GENERALLY NEED MORE
CLEARING ALOFT TO GET WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS. FOR NOW...I WILL KEEP
THE DETERIORATING CIG TRENDS...BUT THESE MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTN. WILL GO WITH PREVAILING TSRA
FOR THE AFTN HOURS TO MATCH THE LIKELY POP GRIDS. WINDS ARE FAIRLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE WNW FROM OUTFLOW...BUT SHUD TURN BACK OUT OF THE SW
BEHIND NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING...AND REMAIN IN
THAT GENERAL DIRECTION THRU MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION TURNING INTO DOMINATED STRATIFORM RAIN REGION
BEHIND MAY CELLS TO THE WEST OF KGSP/KGMU. MAINLY A LIGHT STEADY
RAIN OR SHRA AT THE UPSTATE TERMINALS...BUT WILL KEEP A VCTS FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS. SIMILARLY AT KHKY. AT KAVL...COVERAGE MAINLY IN FORM
OF SHRA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...EXPECTING MAINLY SHRA WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED TS POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE HITTING STRATUS AND SOME FOG FAIRLY
HARD LATE TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH DRYING
ALOFT. FOR NOW...I WILL KEEP THE DETERIORATING CIG TRENDS...BUT
THESE MAY BE TOO PESSIMISTIC. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY AROUND
MIDDAY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA DURING THE
AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE PIEDMONT WHERE I WILL GO WITH VCTS. AT
KAVL...WILL GO WITH PROB30 FOR TS.

OUTLOOK...BRIEF DRYING UNDER HIGH PRES IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS QUICKLY OVER THE SFC HIGH MID TO LATE
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

            02-08Z        08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z
KCLT       HIGH  83%     HIGH  90%     HIGH  93%     HIGH 100%
KGSP       HIGH  88%     MED   66%     HIGH  94%     HIGH 100%
KAVL       HIGH  81%     HIGH  86%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%
KHKY       LOW   32%     LOW   47%     MED   63%     HIGH 100%
KGMU       MED   75%     HIGH  82%     HIGH  84%     HIGH 100%
KAND       MED   75%     MED   75%     HIGH  83%     HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE
HOURLY EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/HG
SHORT TERM...JOH
LONG TERM...CDG
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-040245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1039 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
742 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

SCZ007>009-012>014-030030-
CHEROKEE-CHESTER-LAURENS-SPARTANBURG-UNION-YORK-
742 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN LAURENS...EASTERN
SPARTANBURG...SOUTHERN CHEROKEE...UNION...WESTERN CHESTER AND WESTERN
YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

AT 738 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PACOLET TO BUFFALO
TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF SEDALIA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  THICKETTY...
  LOCKHART...
  HICKORY GROVE...
  MCCONNELLS...
  YORK...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3441 8184 3469 8176 3499 8191 3517 8132
      3482 8106 3455 8114 3456 8141 3449 8142
      3447 8156 3451 8160 3452 8164 3444 8171

MOORE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
835 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

SCZ009-014-030115-
CHESTER-YORK-
835 PM EDT SUN JUN 2 2013

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT EASTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
YORK COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT...

AT 830 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ROCK HILL TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BLACKSTOCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...

BLACKSTOCK...ROCK HILL...RICHBURG...FORT MILL...GREAT FALLS...CEDAR
CREEK RESERVOIR...CATAWBA...FORT LAWN...FISHING CREEK RESERVOIR AND
GREAT FALLS RESERVOIR...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

LAT...LON 3465 8089 3455 8087 3453 8088 3455 8116
      3493 8112 3507 8091 3501 8090 3495 8086
      3484 8086 3482 8089 3477 8086 3474 8087
      3470 8085

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
912 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARTWELL                34.35N 82.93W
06/02/2013                   HART               GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE ON HOUSE ON NORTH SIDE OF HARTWELL. 10-12 TREES DOWN
            ACROSS COUNTY. SEVERAL POWER LINES DOWN AS WELL.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
928 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SSE ANDERSON          34.42N 82.60W
06/02/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN IN ROADWAY OF HIGHWAY 28 JUST SOUTH OF
            INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 108.

0631 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 ESE ANDERSON          34.48N 82.56W
06/02/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE IN ROADWAY NEAR INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 76 AND
            HIGHWAY 252.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
929 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILLIAMSTON             34.62N 82.48W
06/02/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON CHURCH ST IN WILLIAMSTON. ANOTHER TREE DOWN
            ON GOODRICH ST IN PELZER.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1005 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W ANDERSON            34.51N 82.71W
06/02/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED NEW PROSPECT CHURCH ROAD CLOSED
            DUE TO FLOODING. THE EXTENT OF THE FLOODING UNKNOWN AT
            THIS TIME.

0806 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNE ANDERSON          34.58N 82.62W
06/02/2013                   ANDERSON           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY PATROL REPORTED ROAD CLOSURE DUE TO FLOODING AT
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 276 AND HIGHWAY 81. THE EXTENT OF
            THE FLOODING UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. LAST HEAVY DOWNPOUR
            CROSSED LOCATION AROUND 625 PM ACCORDING TO RADAR. A
            MODERATE BAND CROSSED AROUND AND AFTER 7 PM.

&&

OUTLAW