An area of low pressure tracked northeast along Atlantic coast from the mid-Atlantic region to near New England. As the system strengthened, very strong damaging northwest winds developed across the mountains of North Carolina.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
An area of low pressure tracked northeast along Atlantic coast from the mid-Atlantic region to near New England. As the system strengthened, very strong damaging northwest winds developed across the mountains of North Carolina.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 7, 12:01 AM EST, 54 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 1201 AM EST THU FEB 7 2013 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST APPROACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM PROMISES TO BRING A WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADDITION TO A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO HIGH PRESSURE AND FAIR WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 1150 PM EST WEDNESDAY... INCREASED SKY COVER INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING. MADE SOME EARLY ADJUSTMENTS TO COOL TEMPS THEN STEADY THEM OUT TOWARD DAWN GIVEN MORE CLOUDS. PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE DOWN THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO INVADE THE AREA TONIGHT. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...A GULF DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST AND PUSH WARM MOIST AIR OVER THE WEDGE. PRECIPITATION FALLING IN THIS WEDGE WILL ENHANCE IT AND EVAPORATIVELY COOL THE AIR LATE AFTERNOON. THIS COOLING WILL BRING P- TYPE ISSUES INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS TO THE NORTH. TIMING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE A WORLD OF DIFFERENCE FOR P-TYPE. PRECIPITATION COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUCH AS THE 12Z NAM...SHOULD START AND STAY AS RAIN INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE NAM ALSO KEEPS RAIN CHANCES SOUTH AND NOT FAR PAST THE VA/NC BORDER. RAIN ENTERING THE AREA IN THE MORNING...AKA 12Z GFS...MAY START OUT AS A WINTER MIX...THEN TRANSITION TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH FREEZING RAIN/SLEET POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH...GREENBRIER VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY TO INCLUDE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WE ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHER SUN ANGLE. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING TO KEEP P-TYPE AS MOSTLY RAIN. WET BULB TEMPERATURES LOOK WARM WITH A MINIMUM AGAIN IN THE NORTH AROUND 30F LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TOOK A BLEND OF THE MODELS WITH 40 PERCENT NAM/ECMWF AND 20 PERCENT GFS. WITH THE DELAY IN THE RAIN...INCREASED TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY BUT REMAINED BELOW GUIDANCE BY A CATEGORY. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 331 PM EST WEDNESDAY... SHORT WAVE COMING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN STREAM CROSSES OVER THE COUNTY WARNING AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER IN THE NORTHERN STREAM HELPING KICK IT EAST. NCEP RECOMMENDED THE POSITION OF THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE ASSOCIATED SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW WHICH MOVES THE SYSTEM FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE OUTER BANKS THURSDAY NIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN A WELL ESTABLISHED WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. SURFACE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS. THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST UPSLOPE AREAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PARTIAL THICKNESS FORECASTS AND BUFKIT FROM THE NAM AND GFS SHOW SLEET...FREEZING RAIN OR RAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 00Z/7PM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AS ALWAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING PRECIPITATION TYPE. AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN DO NOT SUPPORT THE NEED FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH. ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY COVER THIS EVENT. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS AND LOWER DEW POINTS COMING IN FRIDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL KEEP ENVIRONMENT MIXED ENOUGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT PLUMMET. HAVE EXTENDED PROBABILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING WHEN THE MODELS DIMINISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 250 PM EST WEDNESDAY... LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN ESTABLISHING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SOUTH INTO THE MID APPALACHIAN AND MID ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ON HEELS OF MAJOR NOR-EASTER...CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AND SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA. NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROFS EXPECTED TO IMPINGE UPON THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PRECEDED BY INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERMAL PROFILES AT ONSET OF NEXT PRECIPITATION EVENT ON SUNDAY NIGHT ARE SUGGESTIVE OF COLD RAIN...BUT SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME VERY LIMITED SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IN SOME OF THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460...PROVIDED THAT DEW POINTS PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF RAIN SHIELD ARE LOW AND WET BULB PROCESSES CAN HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES DOWN. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THAT WAVE IN NORTHERN STREAM MAY LIFT NORTH AND EAST AGGRESSIVELY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT THROUGH FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY...DISLODGING DEEPER MOISTURE BY MONDAY EVENING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION THREAT UNTIL SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF COAST REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT- WEDNESDAY LOOK MAINLY WET RATHER THAN WHITE FOR THE BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA...SUFFICIENT DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS EXIST LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD TO GENERATE A RAPID INCREASE IN UNCERTAINTY IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GFS INDICATES ONSET OF PRECIPITATION FROM SECOND SYSTEM BEGINNING ON TUESDAY NIGHT OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460 PROVIDED THAT SUFFICIENT COLD AND DRY AIR CAN BE ENTRAINED INTO THE AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SYSTEM. ECMWF DEPICTS A SIMILAR TIMING...BUT DISPLACES AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHER SOUTH TO SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO MINIMIZE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION-TYPE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ECMWF THEN OMINOUSLY BRINGS LEFT EXIT/DEFORMATION REGION OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A DYNAMICALLY-COOLED LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND AN INCREASING THREAT FOR A SYNOPTIC-SCALE SNOW EVENT...AT LEAST IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH RAIN CONTINUING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TIMING AND PLACEMENT UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN THE FIRST AND SECOND SYSTEMS WARRANT A CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO TREATMENT OF THE SECOND SYSTEM AT THE PRESENT TIME...WITH AN ONGOING THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH THERMAL PROFILES NOT YET CONVINCINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF A RAIN TO SNOW EVENT ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OF COURSE...THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...AND REFINEMENTS WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST AS NECESSARY TO REFLECT A CHANGING WINTER-BASED THREAT...IF ANY. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 1150 PM EST WEDNESDAY... MODELS VARY ON TIMING OF THE LOWER CIGS AND PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE TX/GULF COAST STATES TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS PERIOD. NAM IS SLOWEST/GFS FASTEST. DECIDED BASED ON RADAR TO THE SOUTHWEST THAT THE GFS IS TOO FAST BUT THE NAM TOO SLOW...SO WENT TOWARD A BLEND. STILL LOOKS LIKE CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR IN THE 13-16Z TIME FRAME NEAR ROA. THE PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO HOLD OFF TIL LATER IN THE DAY BUT MAINLY INTO THU EVENING AND FRI MORNING. WILL SEE CIGS SINK TO MVFR AND LOWER BY DUSK THU. PRECIP SHOULD BE MAINLY RAIN AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT LWB WHERE WEDGE KEEPS TEMPS AROUND 32F AND HAVE A MIX OF FZRAPL. MAY SEE PL AT BCB LATE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AT KLWB MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT KBCB AND KLYH...LOW CONFIDENCE AT KROA...KDAN AND KBLF. THIS ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST IMPACTING MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR FLIGHT DELAYS FOR AVIATION ROUTES HEADED NORTHEAST. LOCAL CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY...BUT WIDESPREAD VFR NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD SUNDAY WITH VFR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. MONDAY LOOKS WET WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS/WP SHORT TERM...AMS LONG TERM...WERT AVIATION...PM/RCS/WP
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 407 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 VAZ019-020-023-024-034-035-WVZ045-072115- ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-GREENBRIER- 407 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VAZ010>014-016>018-022-032-033-WVZ044-072115- BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ROANOKE- PATRICK-FRANKLIN-MONROE- 407 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VAZ045>047-072115- CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM- 407 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ015-072115- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-GRAYSON- 407 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. VAZ007-009-WVZ042-043-072115- TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-SUMMERS- 407 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043-044-058-059-072115- STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX- CHARLOTTE- 407 PM EST WED FEB 6 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT MAY CREATE WATER PROBLEMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. RCS
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
High winds blew two trees down, one on Parker Eller Road four miles north of Jefferson, the other on Old Field Creek Road, five miles east-northeast of Lansing. Damage values are estimated.
High winds blew down two trees along State Route 105 near the intersection of Shulls Mill Road, five miles northwest of Blowing Rock. Damage values are estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 436891, 436890.