A series of strong persistent thunderstorms produced periods of flooding and flash flooding during the late night and early morning hours of July 4th and 5th of 2013.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MOB wrote it up.
A series of strong persistent thunderstorms produced periods of flooding and flash flooding during the late night and early morning hours of July 4th and 5th of 2013.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 7:56 PM CST, 3 hours 4 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
856 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013
.UPDATE...WEATHER MAPS THIS EVENING SHOW A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...SOUTHWARD TO
EASTERN TEXAS. TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROF...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE SCALE PRESSURE
SYSTEMS...DEEP GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.8 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN
STATES IS SOME 110 TO 120 PERCENT OF NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE...A NORTH
TO SOUTH WEAK PRESSURE TROF WAS DRAPED OVER THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER AND SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN A DEEPLY
MOIST TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING AS MID LEVEL IMPULSES EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD AS WELL. LOCAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS POCKETS OF 3
TO 5 INCH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHILE A MORE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT...4 TO 8 INCHES HAS OCCURRED FROM SOUTHERN
BALDWIN COUNTY...EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. VERY
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...WITH A REDEVELOPMENT AND
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE...STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
EFFICIENT IN DROPPING ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS. WITH GROUND MOISTURE
BEING HIGH OVER SEVERAL AREAS...WILL NOT TAKE MUCH FOR HEAVY RAINS TO
LEAD TO RUNOFF...THUS FLOODING IN LOWER LYING AND POORLY DRAINED
AREAS. THE LATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TO EXCEED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA TO THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AT THIS TIME...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-65...EXCEPT FOR
MOBILE COUNTY.
HYDROLOGY...THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AT THIS TIME
STILL REMAINS EAST OF I-65 WHERE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS TONIGHT.
THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE AREA STRETCHING FROM SOUTH BALDWIN COUNTY
THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO THE LARGE AREAS OF 4 TO 8 INCH
RAINFALLS WHICH OCCURRED RECENTLY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AXIS BEGINS TO
SHIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD OVERNIGHT...BRINGING A RETURN OF HEAVY RAINS
FROM SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. AN ADDITIONAL TWO TO FOUR INCHES
OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATCH AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING UP TO TWICE AS MUCH. CONVECTION SHOULD
SHIFT WEST AND NORTH AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES. SUSPECT MORE
STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REGION...
ESPECIALLY WEST...GETS A LITTLE EXTRA LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET MAXIMUM ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ALOFT. ON AN UP...OR DRY NOTE THIS WILL LEAD TO FILLING OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH (THOUGH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SPLITS OVER THE GULF AND THE
RESIDUAL ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE WESTWARD) AND A GRADUAL
RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.
IN SHORT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
EVENING AND WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. STORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS EAST OF I-65 IN A LARGE PART DUE TO THE
ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
HEAVY RAINFALLS HAVE ALSO CAUSED SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG SOME
OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE RIVERS WITH THE SHOAL RIVER NEAR CRESTVIEW
AND THE BLACKWATER RIVER NEAR BAKER EXPECTED TO RISE TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE THIS EVENING. 10/08
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...A SURFACE LOW SEEN IN CURRENT
SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE LOOP IS PRESENT OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWARD TONIGHT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
THE MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR THE BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE CURRENTLY LOCATED EAST OF THE AREA TO SHIFT BACK WESTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY. BASED ON BEST DEEP LAYER LIFT AND MOVEMENT OF THE BEST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE...WILL HAVE POPS INCREASING WESTWARD OVERNIGHT TO
LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR...THEN FOR FRIDAY WILL
HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION WITH LIKELY POPS
ELSEWHERE.
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...HAVE MADE AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE TIMING FOR
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO BEGIN AT 10 PM AND STILL BE MAINLY FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
INCLUDING BALDWIN COUNTY...THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING. A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM
FOR BEACH AREAS. /29
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHILE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FETCH OF DEEP LAYER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE GULF COAST REGION...INCLUDING OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED HIGH RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 2.00 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...SO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ASSOCIATED FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...
AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. /21
LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NO CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS.
TO SUMMARIZE...CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL
RENDER IT TO ZONAL WITH A LIKELY RETURN TO THE SEABREEZE REGIME BY
WEDNESDAY. LIKELY POPS KEPT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA FOR SUNDAY.
THE UPPER HIGHS COMBINE INTO A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
GUIDANCE IS ALIGNED WITH THE NUMBERS FOR THE FA...SO LEFT IT BE. FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE SPLITS IN THE
GFS...WITH A TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE GFS BEING
WETTER THAN THE ECMWF SO WE STUCK WITH THE GFS. /77
MARINE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA WILL
MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH MONDAY. MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS OVER THE MOBILE BAY AREA WILL INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE
AREA. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. /29
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE 72 84 72 87 73 / 60 80 60 60 40
PENSACOLA 75 84 76 88 77 / 100 80 60 70 40
DESTIN 75 84 75 87 77 / 90 80 60 70 40
EVERGREEN 71 84 70 86 70 / 70 80 60 70 40
WAYNESBORO 69 84 68 87 69 / 50 60 60 60 40
CAMDEN 71 83 71 83 71 / 60 80 60 70 40
CRESTVIEW 73 84 72 89 71 / 100 80 60 70 40
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
LOWER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BUTLER...CONECUH...COVINGTON...CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...LOWER
BALDWIN...UPPER BALDWIN...
FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...COASTAL SANTA ROSA...
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY...MISSISSIPPI SOUND...NORTHERN MOBILE
BAY...PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM...PERDIDO BAY...SOUTHERN MOBILE
BAY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
NM...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60
NM...
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 306 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013 ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-052015- CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW- ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE- LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA- COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY- GREENE-STONE-GEORGE- 306 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL LOCAL FLOODING WILL EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. IN ADDITION...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. HIGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... STORM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FOR FLOODING ISSUES...THAT ARISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-052015- NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND- PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 306 PM CDT THU JUL 4 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AT TIMES REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO ZERO AND CREATE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH 1 PM FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWLY ABATING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT BOATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT STORMS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
The Mobile radar (KMOB), 111 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:58 UTC.
4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
U.S. Highway 45 at Old Winchester Road in Buckatunna was flooded with water at least 6 inches in depth.
Flats Road in Buckatunna was closed due to flooding of water at least 6 inches deep over roadway.
Eleven people were rescued from homes due to flash flooding. Numerous roads under at least 6 inches of water in the Sand Hill Community.
Spring Street, South Street and Azalea Streets in Waynesboro were flooded with at least 6 inches of water over roadway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, July 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 472075, 472081, 472077, 472079.