Rip Currents in Florida, July 4, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
907 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING WAS THE DRIEST IN OVER A WEEK...WITH A
PWAT OF ONLY 1.65 INCHES. THIS IS 0.41 INCHES LOWER THAN THE 00Z
SOUNDING YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TUTT LOW REMAINS OVER THE
BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...WITH MID LEVEL DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS DRY AIR IS KEEPING THE SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
LOOKING VERY ANEMIC...AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE EAST COAST TODAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME.
THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE WEST...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST
FOR THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS JUST
UNDER 2 KFT...AND THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CUT BACK POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE DAY FOR THE EAST
COAST. THE THUNDER THREAT IS ALSO REALLY LOW FOR THE EAST
COAST...BUT WILL LEAVE ISOLATED THUNDER THE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL. THE POSSIBILITY OF WATERSPOUTS WAS ADDED
TO THE HWO FOR THE GULF WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013/

AVIATION...

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE...DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT DID NOT PREVAIL VCTS AT ANY EAST
COAST SITE AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS. A
COOL POOL IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS APPROACHING THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON THE WEST SIDE OF UN UPPER LEVEL LOW. AT
THE MOMENT, THE FORECAST REASONING IS THAT THE DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY OVERCOME THE COOL TEMPERATURES
AND ONLY ALLOW FOR FAST MOVING SHOWERS. HOWEVER, THIS COULD CHANGE
AND ONE OR TWO THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND MOVE ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  88  79 / 20 20 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  79  88  79 / 20 30 50 50
MIAMI            88  78  88  79 / 20 40 50 50
NAPLES           89  73  91  76 / 50 40 50 50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
     COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...84/AK
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1033 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
050545-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1033 AM EDT THU JUL 4 2013

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY...
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INTERIOR AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG
GLADES, HENDRY AND COLLIER COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE GULF WATERS.

WIND: SOME OF THE STORMS IN GLADES, HENDRY, COLLIER AND MAINLAND
MONROE COUNTIES CAN BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 55 MPH.

FLOODING: BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED URBAN
FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED AREAS, ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT HAVE
RECEIVED HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS FROM PREVIOUS RAINS.

WATERSPOUTS: IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF
WATERS COULD CONTAIN WATERSPOUTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, PARTICULARLY OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES
OF SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.