Strong south winds ahead of an approaching cold front produced damage in Carney on the evening of the 4th.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
Strong south winds ahead of an approaching cold front produced damage in Carney on the evening of the 4th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 4, 5:22 PM CST, 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 622 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN SW FLOW THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NRN MN ALONG WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT 295K-300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH IN ERN MN SUPPORTED AN AREA OF RAIN ACROSS NE MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. FARTHER EAST...AWAY FROM THE STRONGER 700-300 MB QVECTOR CONV...MAINLY JUST SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES HAD DEVELOPED OVER WEST UPPER MI. TONIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCT LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS THE AREA OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE NE MN SHRTWV LIFTS TO THE N OF LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL PUSH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH UPPER MI BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND ENDING ANY LINGERING LIGHT PCPN. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ALSO EXPECTED...PER UPSTREAM TRENDS OVER MN. THE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN CWA WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. TUESDAY...SOME MORNING SUNSHINE WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS 300K ISENTROPIC LIFT AGAIN INCREASES AHEAD OF THE STRENGTHENING 700 MB FRONTAL ZONE FROM SW MN IA INTO NRN WI. WITH THE AREA FALLING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 250-300 MB JET AND 800-600 FGEN...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST NEAR THE WI BORDER. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 00Z/WED. WITH THE SUNSHINE AND SW WINDS...TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SNOWFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE CWA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE AREA IS UNDER A COUPLED JET (RIGHT REAR OF JET OVER ONTARIO AND LEFT FRONT OF JET ROUNDING THE UPPER TROUGH AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES). A LITTLE LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SPREAD INTO UPPER MICHIGAN WITH THE BEST FORCING ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT CUTTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF UPPER MICHIGAN...LIKELY LEADING TO A SHARP CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN OVER THE EAST AND SNOW OVER THE WEST. TO COMPLICATE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FURTHER...TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AHEAD OF THIS LOW ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LIMITED COLD AIR TO PULL SOUTH AS THE WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...THAT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARMER WATER TEMPS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE REGIONS. THUS...THINKING THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...FROM BESSEMER TO ROCKLAND AND EAST TO THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND CRYSTAL FALLS. THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA IS COMPLICATED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS...THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WARM AIR TO HAVE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. SINCE THIS IS A SITUATION OF SNOW ALOFT FALLING THROUGH NEAR SURFACE WARM OR ISOTHERMAL LAYER...HAVE FOLLOWED 1000-850MB THICKNESS AND WETBULB0 VALUES TO DELINEATE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE. THAT RAIN/SNOW LINE AWAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR WARMING WILL LIKELY RUN FROM SKANDIA TO IRON MOUNTAIN. AS FOR QPF AMOUNTS...EXPECT 0.40-1.0 INCH OF LIQUID ACROSS THE CWA WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS FROM IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTHEAST OF MARQUETTE AND IRON MOUNTAIN. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME ENHANCED PRECIPITATION WITH A FGEN BAND FROM ROUGHLY WATERSMEET TO BARAGA COUNTY. IN THAT SAME REALM...SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION RUNS ARE SHIFTING THE QPF A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST...SO THAT WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS AND THE EXPECTED FORCING LOCATIONS...EXPECT MUCH OF THE LIFT TO BE JUST BELOW THE DGZ WHICH SHOULD KEEP SNOW RATIOS CLOSER TO 10-1. THUS...WITH THE EXPECTED QPF AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN SNOW AREAS WOULD EXPECT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AND THAT SITS RIGHT IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE THERE IS STILL SOME TIME (DUE TO THE MAIN IMPACTS OCCURRING DURING THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE)...WILL ISSUE AN SPS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO CANADA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WOULD EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AS COLDER AIR AND BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLOWS SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THERE TO BE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWEST WIND BELTS. 850MB TEMPS ARE IN THE -7 TO -9C RANGE DEPENDING ON MODEL...SO DELTA-T VALUES ARE IN THE MID-UPPER TEENS. INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK IN THE 7-8KFT RANGE...SO SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...ONLY HAVE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE FORECASTS FOR THE SNOW BELTS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM A HIGH EXITING THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE...SHOWED DIMINISHING POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD...WITH THEM LINGERING LONGEST IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST FAVORED LOCATION OVER THE EAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY. THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE QPF ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN. BASED OFF SNOW ALOFT FALLING THROUGH A WARM LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE...LEANED ON 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES FOR P-TYPE WHICH INDICATES A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. A LOT OF VARIABILITY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH HOW COLD THE AIR WILL BE WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO GO WITH MORE THAN LOW CHANCE POPS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING) ISSUED AT 622 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 LIGHT RAIN INTO THE EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH SO THAT VSBY WILL NOT BE AFFECTED. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY AT SAW WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 KNOTS. VEERING WINDS TO WSW BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE UPPER MI WILL HELP PUSH THE LOWER CLOUDS TO THE EAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING OVERNIGHT AT ALL SITES. WILL GET GUSTY AT CMX AGAIN FOR TUE WITH WEST WINDS ALLOWING GOOD MIXING TO TAKE PLACE. && .MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT 414 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 AS LOW PRES MOVES FROM LAKE WINNIPEG TO HUDSON BAY ON TONIGHT...IT WILL DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL/ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING AN END TO THE GALES BY LATE THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY MORNING (TO 30KTS)...BUT THEN WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT AT THIS POINT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING WINDS BELOW 25KTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... UPPER MICHIGAN... NONE. LAKE SUPERIOR... GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LSZ266-267. GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ249>251-264-265. LAKE MICHIGAN... GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ221-248-250. && SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...SRF AVIATION...07 MARINE...JLB
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 427 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 MIZ001>005-009>011-084-051200- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-GOGEBIC- IRON-DICKINSON-SOUTHERN HOUGHTON- 427 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 /327 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 35 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM ISHPEMING TO MENOMINEE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SEVERAL INCHES OF WET...HEAVY SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SEE THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. MIZ006-007-012>014-085-051200- ALGER-LUCE-MENOMINEE-DELTA-SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 427 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 /327 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS MAY GUST TO 35 MPH THROUGH EARLY EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-051200- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 427 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 /327 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT EXPECT SOUTH GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND LAKE SUPERIOR OPEN WATERS FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LMZ221-248-250-051200- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 427 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT EXPECT SOUTH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING. SEE THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE AND LAKE MICHIGAN NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THE NEED FOR WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SRF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 410 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 MIZ002-004-005-009>011-084-051000- ONTONAGON-BARAGA-MARQUETTE-GOGEBIC-IRON-DICKINSON- SOUTHERN HOUGHTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ONTONAGON...L'ANSE...GWINN... MARQUETTE...IRONWOOD...IRON RIVER...IRON MOUNTAIN...KENTON... SIDNAW 410 PM EST MON NOV 4 2013 /310 PM CST MON NOV 4 2013/ ...MEASURABLE SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND NORTH ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. LOCATIONS NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE WILL LIKELY SEE ALL RAIN OR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM BESSEMER TO ROCKLAND AND EAST TO THE HURON MOUNTAINS AND CRYSTAL FALLS...WHERE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. LOCATIONS ALONG A LINE FROM NEGAUNEE TO IRON MOUNTAIN WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW...WHICH WILL KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH OR TWO. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ONTANAGON...BARAGA...LANSE...AND MARQUETTE. THIS WET AND HEAVY SNOW MAY MAKE FOR A SLOW WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR ANY CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL. SRF
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Non-convective winds associated with a line of showers snapped a 14-inch diameter 30 foot tall pine tree and blew a trampoline across a yard in Carney. The time of the report was estimated from radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, November 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 478038.