Flash Flooding and Flooding in Kentucky, July 6 to 7, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
655 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS IS WORKING SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY UP INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND
SOUTHWEST OHIO. THIS IS IN AN AREA OF GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 25 TO 30 KNOT 850 JET PUSHING UP ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE JET MAX IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH INTO OUR
AREA BUT WEAKEN THROUGH LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT TO SEE PCPN CONTINUE TO PUSH UP INTO OUR AREA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH WE WILL
DESTABILIZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND AS A RESULT HOW MUCH
REDEVELOPMENT WE MAY SEE. WILL HEDGE A LITTLE AND TAPER POPS BACK
TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR LATER TODAY. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLOODING
ISSUES SHOULD BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS TODAY WHERE MORNING
PCPN WILL BE THE HEAVIEST AND LAST THE LONGEST. WITH THE PCPN
BEING MORE STRATIFORM THIS MORNING AND 6 HOUR FFG VALUES IN THE
1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE...THINK WE ARE OKAY HOLDING OFF ON AN FFA.
EXPECT HIGHS AGAIN TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLY THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM ARE INDICATING ANOTHER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING TONIGHT A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE ONE THIS MORNING...NOSING UP INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PCPN LATER TONIGHT ACROSS OUR EASTERN AREAS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS
WILL KEEP THE PLUME OF MOISTURE ADVECTING UP INTO OUR AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PWS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST OF OUR
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AS WE GET ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW...WE SHOULD SEE DECREASING PCPN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SHORT WAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PCPN
BACK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80...BUT WE SHOULD THEN
WARM BACK UP TO MORE NORMAL LIKE READINGS IN THE MID 80S BY
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WAVES IN THE QUICK WESTERLY FLOW WILL FAVOR OCCASIONAL CONVECTIVE
CHANCES THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
SURFACE...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO BUILD...WITH DEWPOINTS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST WITH AN INITIAL WAVE LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...AND THEN AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER
UNSETTLED DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
INSTABILITY AND THE EXPECTATIONS OF WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE
OVERALL ZONAL FLOW. AFTER FRIDAY...COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD
TO A DROP IN TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...AND A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
TERMINALS KCVG/KLUK/KDAY/KILN. AT THOSE TERMINALS...A MIX OF
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL
MVFR VSBYS IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THE EASTERN TERMINALS
KCMH/KLCK WILL STAY EAST OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL DURING THE MORNING
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR AS WELL. THE LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
IS EXPECTED TO BREAK APART THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY CROSS THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CIGS WITH FOG/MIST POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...LATTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
438 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-070845-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
438 AM EDT SAT JUL 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.