Hail in Iowa, July 2, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
256 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

FORECAST FOR TONIGHT SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AS UPPER LOW SLOWLY
SHIFTS NORTHWEST AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS.  AS EXPECTED ISOLATED STORMS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.  SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS BUT
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 00Z
SO GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.  SPC MESO PAGE
HIGHLIGHTING AN AREA OF HIGHER 0-3KM SHEAR AND MLCAPE BETWEEN
HIGHWAY 20 AND HIGHWAY 30 SO FUNNEL CLOUDS STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY AS THE UPDRAFTS GO UP.

THE NAM SHOWS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
FROM 09Z-13Z.  A SIMILAR SET UP LAST NIGHT PRODUCED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NE IA AND SHOULD DO THE SAME TONIGHT OVER
NCEN INTO WESTERN IA.  I HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT FROM FORT DODGE SSW.  THIS AREA MAY NEED TO
BE EXPANDED BUT FOR NOW I FELT THE NAM HAD A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS.

SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED SOME VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY WORKS INTO THE AREA.
WITH WEAK FLOW AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME AC I THINK
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME GROUND FOG DEVELOPING IN LOW LYING AREAS
BUT IT WONT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN GRIDS.  I DID MENTION
IT IN AVIATION PRODUCTS HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

OLD UPPER LOW OVER MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIFT BACK
NORTHWEST AND THEN EVENTUALLY LEAVE THE AREA IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WITH THE AIRMASS LITTLE CHANGED...THERE
WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCT THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND PERHAPS AGAIN...
TO A LESSER EXTENT...ON THURSDAY. BY LATE THURSDAY THE WEAKENED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL FINALLY DRIFT EAST OUT OF THE AREA WITH A
RIDGE BEGINNING TO BUILD EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY AND LOWS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S BY FRIDAY AND IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH INCREASED SW FLOW AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...DEW POINTS AND
HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL. HOWEVER...INITIALLY THERE
WILL BE LITTLE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
UNTIL LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSING
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL PREVENT ANY
SOUTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF COOLER AIR FROM CANADA AND A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
H850 MOISTURE CHANNEL FOCUSED EAST OF THE REGION ACROSS THE UPPER
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN STATES. THUS...DESPITE H700
TEMPERATURES THAT HOVER NEAR 9-10C THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...LITTLE IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED OTHER THAN PERHAPS AN OUTLIER STORM ACROSS THE NORTH
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE EAST COAST UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL DRIFT BACK WEST...FORCING THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY LOW NORTHWEST. THIS WILL FOCUS THE H850 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BACK INTO THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A RENEWED PUSH OF
COOLER AIR SOUTH INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH 01Z.  THERE STILL WILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING PEAK HEATING BUT THESE SHOULD
MAINLY BE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF LOCATIONS AND DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING.  COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE IN
MORE THAN FOD AND DSM TAFS. HOWEVER...SATELLITE SHOWING SOME
AGITATED CUMULUS AROUND OTM SO I PUT A VCSH MENTION IN THAT TAF AS
WELL.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.  SOUNDING HINTING
AT SOME VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE FROM DSM EAST FOR A BRIEF

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOKSA
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...FAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
454 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
092>097-031000-
EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
DAVIS-
454 AM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLY MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS LOW...HOWEVER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR AN ISOLATED
FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LOW WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IS MORE LIKELY WITH THE ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
116 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

IAZ035>038-047>049-022030-
WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT DODGE...WEBSTER CITY...ELDORA...
GRUNDY CENTER...BOONE...AMES...MARSHALLTOWN
116 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WIND MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTH
BETWEEN THE HIGHWAY 20 AND HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDORS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL...TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...
AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR FUNNEL
CLOUDS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.

FAB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

IAZ044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-092>097-022200-
CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-
DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-
MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-
DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DENISON...CARROLL...JEFFERSON...BOONE...
AMES...MARSHALLTOWN...TOLEDO...AUDUBON...GUTHRIE CENTER...ADEL...
DES MOINES...NEWTON...GRINNELL...ATLANTIC...GREENFIELD...
WINTERSET...INDIANOLA...KNOXVILLE...OSKALOOSA...CORNING...
CRESTON...OSCEOLA...CHARITON...ALBIA...OTTUMWA...BEDFORD...
MOUNT AYR...LEON...CORYDON...CENTERVILLE...BLOOMFIELD
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 2 2013

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH. HOWEVER...NO WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

LEE