Drought in Hawaii, January 1 to 31, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON DEC 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL BRING BRING RAIN TO KAUAI TONIGHT...OAHU ON
TUESDAY...AND MAUI COUNTY AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT. A COOL AIR MASS
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT.
AS THE FRONT DISINTEGRATES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD OVER MOST OF THE STATE...THOUGH FAVORING WINDWARD
SLOPES. EVEN STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK FRONT NUDGED ITS BEDRAGGLED CLOUD BAND TOWARD KAUAI.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...SEA BREEZES FADED SLOWLY. SOUNDING DATA
REPORTED PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...AND CONVERGENCE IN
THE WEAK SOUTHEAST PREVAILING FLOW AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
MANAGED TO PRODUCE A FEW SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
SYNOPTIC CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH THE SEA BREEZES. LAND BREEZES
SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION OVER LAND INTO THE NIGHT...AT LEAST UNTIL
THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND ARRIVES.

RECENT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT TIMETABLE. THE
CLOUD BAND SHOULD REACH KAUAI BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN OAHU BY
AROUND SUNRISE. THE FEATURE WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS IT TRAVELS
SOUTHEAST...SO THAT THERE MAY NOT BE A CLEAR TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR
MAUI COUNTY...BUT SHOWERS THERE WILL SPREAD AND INCREASE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT WILL FADE BY MID-WEEK AS WEAK
RIDGING REASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE STATE. HOWEVER...BUILDING TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MOISTURE FROM THE THE DISSIPATING FRONT
ONTO THE ISLANDS...KEEPING AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE STATE WETTER
THAN USUAL WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.

BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...GUIDANCE PREDICTS DEEP RIDGING TO
BUILD TREMENDOUSLY THROUGH A LARGE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO THE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...PRODUCING VERY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THIS SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...IT STILL SEEMS A BIT EXTREME...AND THUS THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CARRIES A MORE CAUTIOUS PREDICTION. HOWEVER...THIS MATTER
WILL REQUIRE CONTINUED ATTENTION...AND IN ANY CASE...WINDS CERTAINLY
WILL BE STRONGER THAN USUAL DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE ISLAND
CHAIN AS IT DECLINES GRADUALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
CURRENT HIGH SURF WARNING AND ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH
THE FIRST DAY OF THE NEW YEAR. AN NEW ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTHWEST SWELL
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY AND LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS UP FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS EXPOSED TO THE
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL. AS GUSTY NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS FILL IN BEHIND
THE FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KONA-KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR
MAALAEA BAY.

&&

RYSHKO