Heavy Rain in Florida, October 8, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
224 PM EDT MON OCT 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ARE FILLING IN ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS
STILL A GAP THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKELY
DUE TO CONFLUENT FLOW IN MID LEVELS. REMNANTS OF KAREN APPROACHING
THE FL WEST COAST WITH SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS PUSHING TOWARDS
MARION COUNTY. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE THE GAP WILL FILL IN BY MID
AFTERNOON.

MODELS SLOWLY MOVE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION ACROSS NE FL TONIGHT...
KEEPING A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT RAINFALL SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. HOWEVER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SE
GA COAST WILL SET UP AS FLOW BECOMES N/NE OVER THE GA COASTAL
WATERS. RAIN BANDS COULD SET UP OFF THE ATLC OCEAN TOWARD SUNRISE.
REMNANT LOW WILL DRIFT EAST OF THE NE FL COASTLINE ON TUESDAY
SETTING UP A LOCAL NOR'EASTER AS N/NE WIND SURGE DOWN THE SE GA
COAST TO JACKSONVILLE AND ST. AUGUSTINE. WILL GO WITH 40-60% POPS
NEAR COAST ON TUE WITH 20-30% WELL INLAND. MAIN PRECIP TRIGGER
WILL BE IN THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MODEL QPF FIELDS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST FROM JAX
NORTHWARD AND ACROSS SE GA. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. MAX TEMP FORECAST WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH A LARGE
RANGE EXPECTED FROM THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE GA
WHERE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL CHILL THE AIR...TO WELL INTO THE 80S
ACROSS INLD NE FLORIDA WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST AND
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SURFACE LOW EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
TUESDAY EVENING WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL UNDER STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. TIGHT GRADIENT NORTH OF LOW CENTER WILL PRODUCE LOCAL
NOR'EASTER CONDITIONS OVER GA WATERS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER GA/SC
WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL OVER COASTAL GEORGIA ESPECIALLY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINBANDS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MODELS KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST
WITH DIFFERENCES IN LOCATION. A NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE BUT
NOT AS STRONG AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO NORTH WEAKENS. DRY NW
MID/UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP MOST OF AREA DRY EXCEPT NEAR EAST COAST
WHERE SLIGHT CHANCE OF COASTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR...EXCEPT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MVFR
CONDITIONS. HAVE SHRA OR VCSH CONTINUING UNTIL NEAR 08Z. NE FLOW
WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND WILL KEEP SHRA AT SSI THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BECOME NE AND INCREASE OVER THE
GA WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OFFSHORE BY
TUESDAY EVENING. SURFACE LOW WILL STALL OFF THE NE FL COAST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH.
THIS WILL PRODUCE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE NORTH OF LOW.
WILL GO CLOSE TO GFS WHICH IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO ECMWF LOW POSITION.
CONDITIONS OVER OFFSHORE FL WATES WILL COME CLOSE TO ADVISORY
CRITERIA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FARTHER
SOUTH.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK FOR NE FL BEACHES. MODERATE RISK WILL DEVELOP
AT GEORGIA BEACHES ON TUESDAY AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  67  73  59  74 /  50  50  30  20
SSI  71  77  64  74 /  60  60  50  30
JAX  70  80  64  77 /  50  50  40  20
SGJ  73  81  69  80 /  50  50  40  20
GNV  68  83  63  82 /  40  40  40  20
OCF  69  85  65  85 /  40  40  40  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

MKT/MZ/PP