Lightning Strike in Florida, May 22, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE 2...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PUSH INLAND. THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING NEAR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER THE AREA.

SO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAND AREAS. SO WILL KEEP THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MORNING HWO PACKAGE.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH TERMINALS KMIA...KOPF AND KTMB
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. THERE IS A LINGERING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 15Z EXCEPT FOR TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED AT 16Z. FOR
ALL TERMINALS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/

UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE COAST. SOME ARE BECOMING HEAVY WITH EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED. GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR DEPICTION, HAVE INCREASED
WEATHER TO NUMEROUS FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST AND INTERIOR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...A MID-UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
GET PICKED UP AND MERGED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES SUFFICIENT TODAY
TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. HRRR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO THE WEST
PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN RESIDUAL COLD AIR ALOFT
AS WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL, WE WILL HIGHLIGHT A FEW STRONG TSTORMS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE TREND THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS A DRYING ONE WITH LESS
AND LESS SHOWER AND TSTORMS ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS IS THE RESULT
OF THE LOCAL AREA BEING EAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
WEST OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON TSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, AND
ISOLATED TSTORMS FRIDAY. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DISSIPATES AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS HOT
AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT WITH LOWER 90S MOST LOCALES. THEN
OVER THE WEEKEND IT TURNS BREEZY ON A NORTHEAST WIND AS THE STRONG
HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THE NORTHEAST WIND IS FORECAST TO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL
NICE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GULF COAST ALONG WITH A STRONGER WIND.

FOR NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE IN THE
OFFING.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS MORNING THEN RATHER
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN SEAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC. SWAN IS GENERATING
SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  72  87  73 / 60 40 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  74  88  76 / 60 40 30 20
MIAMI            87  74  89  76 / 60 40 30 20
NAPLES           86  71  86  72 / 30 10 10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
222315-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
405 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HAIL: UP TO PENNY SIZE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH.

FLOODING: THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND
SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS RAIN WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING TODAY, MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION: WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED, HOWEVER INDIVIDUAL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
HIGH WIND, HAIL AND FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.