Hail in Colorado, May 24, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
249 PM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT DEW POINT READINGS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S-
30S F OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS...AND INTO THE TEENS F
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS THEY
ARE IN THE 40S-50S F...HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS
AT THIS TIME. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF CIN OVER THE PLAINS RIGHT
NOW. THERE IS A DENVER CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR DENVER INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT ALONG WITH A BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM AROUND MORRISON IN
JEFFERSON COUNTY TO CENTRAL ADAMS COUNTY. MODELS KEEP
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED TO BE BENIGN TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BE NORMAL DRAINAGE
TONIGHT AND MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING ON SATURDAY. SOME OF
THE MODELS HANG ON TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER ON
SATURDAY. MOISTURE IS NOT GOOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER
LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED TO STAY
ABOVE 50S F OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER THIS EVENING...AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PROGGED CAPES ARE FAIRLY DECENT OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS...OVER 2000 J/KG THIS EVENING. FOR POPS THIS
EVENING...WILL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP 10-30%S OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. THE SHEAR IS GOOD AND THE
MOISTURE PLENTIFUL. NO POPS ELSEWHERE. FOR SATURDAY...THE DECENT
CAPE IS PROGGED OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER AGAIN. THE SHEAR IS NOT
AS GOOD TO NO SEVERE MENTIONED THERE BUT WILL GO WITH 10-20%S FOR
LATER AFTERNOON. SATURDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO BE 0-1.5 C WARMER THAN
TODAY'S CURRENT HIGHS.

.LONG TERM...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STAYS
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL
US. THROUGH TUESDAY...NOT MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ENTRAINED IN THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW...SO EXPECTING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THAN
NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE 80S OVER THE PLAINS...IN THE 60S AND 70S IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND HUMIDITIES IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS DAY AFTER DAY WILL LIKELY BEGIN
TAKING A TOLL ON THE FUELS AROUND THE STATE...HOWEVER CURRENTLY
THE FUELS ARE LISTED AS STILL BEING GREEN ENOUGH AFTER OUR LATE
SEASON MOISTURE. WILL KEEP EVALUATING THE FUELS EACH DAY TO
DETERMINE ANY NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS. RIGHT NOW WINDS
LOOK TO BE RIGHT AT OR BELOW CRITERIA. A SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CO/KS/NE STATE BORDERS KEEPING MOST OF
THE AREA DRY AND LEAVING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN PLAINS. CAPE
VALUES EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER WILL VARY BETWEEN
500-1000 J/KG WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A
VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF CAPE OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...BUT WITH NOT MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SO ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL MAINLY HAVE LITTLE RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS.

BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO MID-WEEK...THE PAC-NW TROUGH WILL
GET AN EXTRA SHOT OF ENERGY AND PUSH A TROUGH SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
STATE. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE GETTING LESS AS THE ECMWF USED TO
DEEPEN THE TROUGH INTO A CUT-OFF LOW WHICH ITS DOING LESS NOW. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE...SHOWER/TSTORM COVERAGE AND DECREASE TEMPERATURES OVER
THIS PERIOD. FORECAST ALREADY HAD THIS TREND...ONLY MADE MINOR
EDITS.

&&

.AVIATION...PESKY WIND FIELDS TO DEAL WITH AS A DENVER CYCLONE IS
IN AND NEAR KDEN. NORMAL DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS SHOULD KICK IN
LATER THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH MOISTURE LACKING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINS THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD GET UP
TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH...BUT FLOODING ISSUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
UNTIL 10 PM MDT FOR LOGAN...WASHINGTON...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS
COUNTIES.

&&

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....KRIEDERMAN
AVIATION...RJK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1023 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

COZ030>051-251630-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-
WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/
GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE
9000 FEET-LARIMER AND BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-
JEFFERSON AND WEST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR
CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-
LARIMER COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-
BOULDER AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD
COUNTY-
NORTH DOUGLAS COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND
ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-
ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET-
NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-
CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-
SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-
LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS COUNTY-
1023 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER
LOGAN...PHILLIPS...SEDGWICK AND WASHINGTON AFTER 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE EAST OF A LINE
FROM STERLING TO AKRON TO BURLINGTON. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE PLAINS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AND A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK
STORMS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS COLORADO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA. STORMS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY...MONDAY AND
TUESDAY COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THEN A RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
COLORADO FROM MID AFTERNOON TO MID EVENING.