Hail in Nebraska, May 24, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

MAIN CONCERN WITH FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE WINDS
OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. STILL HITTING ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SEVERAL PLACES AND JUST
UNDER AT SEVERAL OTHERS SO WILL CONTINUE NPW THROUGH 00Z. TONIGHT
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA. STILL DEEP MOISTURE
VALENTINE TO NORTH PLATTE WITH CLOUDS STUBBORN TO BURN OFF. DEW
POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALONG THE DRY LINE. AS THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE. COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT IN THE 50S. HIGHS ON SATURDAY HAVE PUSHED THE ENVELOPE WITH
HIGHER GUIDANCE IN THE UPPER 70S NORTH CENTRAL TO AROUND 90
SOUTHWEST. SIMILAR PARAMETERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW OVER
NORTHWEST KANSAS. WOULD AGAIN EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN THE AM WITH A
QUICKER BURN OFF AND DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE THEN PROCEEDING NORTHEAST OVER
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN COLORADO.
WHILE WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS...THE MAIN LIFTING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN THE HIGH PLAINS LOOKS TO BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INSTABILITY BUILT UP BY DIURNAL HEATING.

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING.
THE PRESENCE OF A 45KT LLJ WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS IT VEERS OFF TO THE EAST. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...DIFFLUENT THICKNESS FIELDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL HELP
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY INTO AN MCS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY...WHEN STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
IN WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW/MID 50S CREATE
FAIRLY STRONG INSTABILITY...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.
A WARM FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO RUN NEAR I80...THEN WEST
INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREATS AT
THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AGAIN...LLJ
WILL STRENGTHEN AFTER DARK AND HELP MAINTAIN THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS IT MOVES EAST.

STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MEMORIAL DAY AS WELL. LITTLE CHANGE IN
OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A WARM FRONT AGAIN EXPECTED TO BECOME
POSITIONED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGHS TO RANGE FROM UPPER
70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH.

THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UPPER FLOW WILL TURN MORE ZONAL. RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN SPREADING NORTH INTO THE WESTERN
SANDHILLS. DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TSRA AT KLBF SITE SO
HAVE INCLUDED IN TEMPO. CEILINGS LIFT INTO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN FALL THROUGH MVFR INTO IFR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-026>029-
038.

&&

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
519 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-251030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
519 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013 /419 AM MDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING. LARGE
HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT AND DAMAGING WIND IS POSSIBLE. BECAUSE
THE STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY SLOW-MOVING...HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A
THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THIS TIME...WE
BELIEVE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP ON HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND THEN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA INCLUDING WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND MOST OF KEITH...
PERKINS...CHASE...DEUEL AND SOUTHERN GARDEN COUNTIES. OTHER
AREAS...SUCH AS CUSTER COUNTY COULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
RISKS WITH THE STORMS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AND
HEAVY RAIN.

WATCH FUTURE FORECASTS FOR REFINEMENT IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF
STORMS THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

JRS