An embedded disturbance in a northwest flow aloft produced significant snowfall in the central mountains of western Colorado adjacent to the continental divide.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
An embedded disturbance in a northwest flow aloft produced significant snowfall in the central mountains of western Colorado adjacent to the continental divide.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 11:58 PM MST, 2 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 1158 PM MST THU FEB 28 2013 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 1149 PM MST THU FEB 28 2013 A QUICK UPDATE FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT TO BETTER INCORPORATE CURRENT CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER GRAND MESA IN THE NORTHERLY ON A TRAJECTORY TO ALSO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW THE NW SAN JUANS LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SNOW STILL FALLING AT ASPEN AND OVER VAIL PASS. STILL EXPECT SOME LET UP LATER ON TONIGHT AS THE BEST JET SUPPORT SHIFTS EAST. THREE TO 6 INCHES ACCUMS FOR THE NRN MTNS THROUGH MIDDAY FRI STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM MST THU FEB 28 2013 MODELS DOING PRETTY WELL WITH THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE BRINGING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A FEW SNOTELS SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAVING ALREADY FALLEN SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON AMOUNTS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS IN CASE ADVISORY NEEDS TO BE POSTED. BOTH NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP THROUGH TOMORROW SO SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE. IMPORTANT TO MENTION THAT NOSE OF JET IS NOW MOVING OVER THE NORTH AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SO BEST SUPPORT WILL BE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL. && .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 317 PM MST THU FEB 28 2013 MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD. LATEST WEB CAMS SHOW SNOW ALREADY FALLING ACROSS THE PARK AND ELKHEAD MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME LIGHT ACTIVITY ALSO MOVING INTO THE VAIL PASS REGION. AS NOSE OF H3 JETS SETTLES IN...EXPECT THE SNOWFALL TO SPREAD A BIT FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH REACHING INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME VALLEY ACTIVITY ALSO EXPECTED FROM RIFLE EAST ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND FROM CRAIG EAST TO STEAMBOAT SPRINGS ALONG HIGHWAY 40. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...WITH THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLAT TOPS AND PARK RANGE WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES WILL FALL BETWEEN NOW AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MOIST FLOW WILL ERODE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER CONDS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 317 PM MST THU FEB 28 2013 THE NEXT UPSTREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL BE CRASHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SATURDAY...SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL FLATTEN THE WESTERN STATES RIDGE AS IT PUSHES IT OVER THE ROCKIES THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWA AND PUSH HIGHS UP TO SEASONAL AND ABOVE FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ON SATURDAY MAY BE HAMPERED SOMEWHAT BY FLAT LAPSE RATES AND LIGHTER WINDS ALOFT SO DID LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER GUIDANCE NUMBERS ATTM. TRAILING ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN SYSTEM WILL DRIVEN INTO OUR CWA SUNDAY MORNING BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE MAIN JET CORE. ISENTROPIC SURFACES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY GOOD PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP WITH PWATS PUSHING NEAR .30...WHICH WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY MARCH. THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH NEAR THE MAIN LOW BUT SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AND JET WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE TERRAIN. THIS INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LEAD TO BETTER MIXING AND HIGH ON SUNDAY LOOKS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES OVER SUNDAY IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...HELD DOWN OVER THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS BY INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY. SNOW LEVELS MAY START OUT AROUND 8000 FEET BEFORE THE WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CONVECTION PUSHES THEM TO MOUNTAIN BASES THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER MOST VALLEYS SHOULD STAY AS LIQUID. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE ARRIVING WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE WANE...LIFT FRONT THE FRONT...INSTABILITY AND OROGRAPHICS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH SUNRISE ON MONDAY SO POPS REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THIS AREA. STRONGER RIDGING FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE FRONT WILL BE LIFTING BACK OUT OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING AND EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH THE UPPER FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASING BY THE ARRIVAL OF A A DEEPER SPLITTING TROF TO THE WEST COAST. SEASONAL OR ABOVE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA WITH AN EARLY TASTE OF SPRING TYPE WEATHER. MODELS ARE HANDLING THE SPLIT DIFFERENTLY SO LOW POPS IN THE LATTER PERIODS LOOK ON TRACK. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 948 PM MST THU FEB 28 2013 PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH BKN TO OVC SKIES BEING PREDOMINANT. CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CLOUDS VARY FROM AROUND 5K FEET FOR NORTHERN VALLEYS REACHING UPWARDS OF 10K FEET AT KMTJ. SOME MVFR POSSIBLE FOR KASE AND KEGE AS WAVE MOVES ACROSS OVERNIGHT WITH REMAINING TAF SITES SEEING VFR THOUGH BKN TO OVC SKIES WILL BE COMMON. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE THE RULE TONIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH LOW CIGS AND VIS IN HEAVIER SNOW. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...NONE. UT...NONE. && UPDATE...JAD SHORT TERM...JDC LONG TERM...15 AVIATION...TGR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO 341 AM MST THU FEB 28 2013 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-011045- LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN- ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS- UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR- CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS- GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS- CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN- WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS- UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE- NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS- PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER- FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN- SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS- EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT- LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES- 341 AM MST THU FEB 28 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW ON THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN COLORADO. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOWFALL WILL BE THIS EVENING...WITH OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 2 TO 6 INCHES...MOSTLY ON NORTHWEST FACING SLOPE. TRAVELING WILL BE LOCALLY HAZARDOUS WITH AREAS OF SNOWPACKED ROAD SURFACES AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A STRONGER STORM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE IMPACT IT WILL HAVE FOR THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW APPEARS TO TARGET THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER STORM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. CUOCO
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall amounts of 5 to 11 inches were measured across the area. This snowfall event began on the last day of February 2013.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2013Every state in 2013This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, March 2013
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 518829.