Drought in New Mexico, March 1 to 31, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1029 PM MST THU FEB 28 2013

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
INFRARED SATELLITE TONIGHT DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION
MOVING RAPIDLY SEWD OVER THE CO ROCKIES. THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS NE
NM PRODUCING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY NEAR THE CO BORDER. CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR LCL MTN TOP OBSCURATION. IN
ADDITION...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS WITH SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT TODAY.

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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MST THU FEB 28 2013...
AT 12Z...A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWING A PWAT OF 0.12 INCH. THE LATEST
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BEGINNING
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ADJACENT INTERIOR...AND 12Z UPPER AIR DATA
CONFIRMED A RIDGE BUILDING THERE WITH GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT
INCREASES COMPARED TO 00Z AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. THIS IS THE
RIDGE THAT WILL TRANSLATE EAST WITH TIME THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AND
ALLOW FOR A SHARP WARMING TREND...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEGUN. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY...THEN TREND TO NEAR
NORMAL ON SATURDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED BY
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST PLAINS AND IN THE 60S ACROSS THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA.
THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN-OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AND MODERATE WESTERLIES
WILL PREVAIL BY SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALSO THE IMPORT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS BATCH OF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY AMOUNT TO NOTHING MORE THAN INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT
A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...WITH
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AS A
CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL SEND A SHOT OF COLDER AIR OUR
WAY...WITH A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN FORECAST MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
STATE. WINDS WILL PICK-UP WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY
TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.

BEYOND DAY 7...BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW A POTENT UPPER LOW
MOVING EAST FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TOWARD NEW MEXICO WITH A
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THE TWO MODELS DIFFER IN THE
TIMING...BUT BOTH SHOW A BIG WEATHER-MAKER AFFECTING NEW MEXICO
THE WEEKEND OF THE 9TH/10TH. BOTH MODELS HAVE SHOWN GOOD RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE...EVEN IN THE 9-10 DAY
RANGE...WITH THE ECMWF THE MOST CONSISTENT. THIS FEATURE REPRESENTS
OUR NEXT SHOT AT WETTING PRECIPITATION.

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.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DEVELOPING LOCALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN GUADALUPE COUNTY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BASIC STORY...RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA COAST TO THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
TERRITORIES CIRCULATING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...AS BUCKLING FLOW CREATES DOWNSTREAM SHORTWAVE FROM THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TO THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL. RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ON SATURDAY AND THEN COLLAPSE
EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY. SPEEDY ZONAL FLOW ESTABLISHED
OVER NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY AS FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVES RAPIDLY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RIDGE
REBUILDING OVER NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AS NEXT PACIFIC NORTHWEST
SYSTEM MOVES ASHORE. CLOSED LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND ACROSS NEW MEXICO
LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

OVERNIGHT...A LITTLE MILDER OVERNIGHT AFTER A WARMER DAY WITH FAIR
TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. NORTHWEST BREEZES OVER THE HIGH SPOTS
WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME SPOTTY
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

FOR FRIDAY...STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE HEART
OF NEW MEXICO AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN COLORADO EXPANDS
COVERAGE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD SURFACE LOW OVER WEST TEXAS. SPOTTY
DAYTIME SNOW SHOWERS ENDING THROUGH THE DAY OVER THE NORTHWEST.
NORTHERLY BREEZES STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE EASTERN
BORDER...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT
STATEWIDE. BEST VENTILATION IN THE EAST...WITH MORE MARGINAL
CONDITIONS WEST AND NORTH OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. FAIR TO GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...WARMING TREND WILL BRING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
NORMAL OR A TAD ABOVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD
TOWARD NEW MEXICO. AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES WILL BE STRONGEST OVER
THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DETERIORATING VENTILATION TO POOR IN THE
WEST AND NORTH...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
LITTLE CHANGE TO HUMIDITIES.

FOR SUNDAY...CONTINUED WARMING TREND WILL PUSH DAYTIME MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY MARCH NORMALS...A LITTLE
COOLER IN THE NORTH. TURBULENT FLOW BACKING TO WESTERLY AS RIDGE
COLLAPSES OVER THE STATE...WITH SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER SUNDAY DAYTIME WITH COVERAGE EXPANSION OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...THE JEMEZ...AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT. BREEZY DAY...WITH WESTERLY WINDS STRONGEST OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT EASTERN
SLOPES AND PLAINS....AND ALONG THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR EAST TO
THE TEXAS STATE LINE. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FLIRTING WITH THE MID TEENS
AND SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH 20S AND 30S NORTH AND WEST.
WILL WATCH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR DEVELOPMENT OF POSSIBLE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS FROM INTERSTATE 40
SOUTHWARD. VASTLY IMPROVED VENTILATION WITH INCREASES IN TRANSPORT
WINDS. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...EXCELLENT OVER THE NORTH
NEAR SNOW SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGE DEVELOPING MONDAY AND
AMPLIFYING TUESDAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY BACKING
FLOW ALOFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM. COLD
AIR IN WAKE OF TURBULENT FLOW ALOFT PUSHING SOUTHWARD AND
PENETRATING WESTWARD TO HALT WARMING TRENDS ON MONDAY...BUT GENTLE
TEMPERATURE REBOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGHS BACK
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EARLY MARCH NORMALS. NORTHERN SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY WILL TAPER OFF BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWERS APPEARING OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WEDNESDAY DAYTIME AND
CONTINUING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED TO THE HIGH PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WITH
SPOTTY RAIN COVERAGE ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTH AND WEST. WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME SPOTS CARRYING MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN
THE LOW TEENS PCT MONDAY AFTERNOON GOOD CANDIDATES FOR SOME CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN AHEAD OF
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BOOST DAYTIME HUMIDITIES INTO THE HIGH TEENS AND
LOW 20S PCT OVER MOST OF THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
VENTILATION MARGINAL ALL THREE DAYS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 AM MST THU FEB 28 2013

NMZ501>540-011300-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
545 AM MST THU FEB 28 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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