Wildfire in California, December 17 to 20, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
950 PM PST MON DEC 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...AS OF 8:09 PM PST MONDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY TODAY
WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S
AROUND THE FORECAST AREA. MONTEREY AIRPORT REACHED 75...CARMEL
VALLEY 77...DOWNTOWN SAN FRANCISCO 67 AND HALFMOON BAY 72.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AS HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN
TO FILTER IN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

SMOKE FROM THE PFEIFFER FIRE IS BEING REPORTED AT MONTEREY AIRPORT
THIS EVENING AND HAS BEEN OBSERVED AROUND THE MONTEREY AREA.
THEREFORE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE SMOKE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BY WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST. PROVIDING
THAT THE FIRE IS STILL BURNING THE SMOKE WILL HEAD INLAND TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST.

THE 0000Z GFS40 AND THE 1200Z ECMWF HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE
CURRENT SYNOPTIC FEATURES. BOTH MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MOVING THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED AT 33N AND 133W TO THE EAST
THEN ABSORBING IT INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING IN FROM
THE NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. THIS EVOLVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RETURN OF NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW TO UPPER 50S.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE
AGAIN BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND CALIFORNIA.

&&

.AVIATION...AS OF 9:50 PM PST MONDAY...FOR 06Z TAFS. VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. LOCAL SMOKE POSSIBLE AROUND MONTEREY BAY
AND ALONG BIG SUR COAST.

VICINITY OF KSFO...VFR WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

KSFO BRIDGE APPROACH...SIMILAR TO KSFO.

MONTEREY BAY AREA TERMINALS...VFR WITH AREAS OF SMOKE ALOFT AS
WELL AS ALONG BIG SUR COAST. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS TURNING ONSHORE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.CLIMATE...HERE IS A LIST OF HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS ACROSS OUR
AREA FOR MONDAY DEC 16:

SF BAY AREA
.LOCATION...............TEMP.....YEAR
 KENTFIELD...............70......1956
 SAN RAFAEL..............74......1980
 NAPA....................72......1958
 SAN FRANCISCO...........71......1998
 SFO AIRPORT.............70......1998
 OAKLAND MUSEUM..........74......1998
 OAKLAND AIRPORT.........65......1958
 RICHMOND................73......1980
 LIVERMORE...............72......1958
 SAN JOSE................70......1998
 GILROY..................75......1958

MONTEREY BAY AREA
.LOCATION...............TEMP.....YEAR
 MONTEREY................85......1980
 SANTA CRUZ..............74......1923
 SALINAS.................78......1976
 SALINAS AIRPORT.........84......1980
 KING CITY...............84......1980/1924

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AS OF 8:09 PM PST MONDAY...A FIRE SIGNATURE IS
READILY APPARENT OVER THE PFEIFFER BIG SUR AREA ON THE CURRENT IR
SATELLITE FOG PRODUCT. SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE MOVED SMOKE INTO THE
MONTEREY BAY AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG
THE BIG SUR COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING A RETURN OF
NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE BIG SUR AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOIST
OCEAN AIR WILL GREATLY IMPROVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG THE
BIG SUR COAST AND MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
THE RETURN OF THE ONSHORE FLOW WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL RIDGE LINES
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST REACHING 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL DECREASE ONCE AGAIN
THURSDAY EVENING BECOMING OFFSHORE BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .TNGT...NONE.

PUBLIC FORECAST: LARRY
AVIATION: RWW
CLIMATE: BELL
FIRE WEATHER: LARRY

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