High Wind in California, December 14 to 15, 2013

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
250 AM PST SAT DEC 14 2013

UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...AND
WILL RESULT IN WINDY...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...THERE
WILL BE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA TODAY/SUNDAY...THEN WEAKEN A BIT ON MONDAY. NEAR THE
SURFACE...MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENING ON MONDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...MAIN CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SANTA ANA
WINDS. BASED ON OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...EVERYTHING SEEMS
TO BE DEVELOPING AS ANTICIPATED. ALREADY GETTING SOME SITES IN THE
MOUNTAINS GUSTING NEAR 55 MPH. WITH THE SURFACE GRADIENTS FORECAST
TO STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE TODAY...AND WITH MODELS INDICATING GOOD
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (850 MB WINDS 35-45 KNOTS)...MODERATE TO STRONG
SANTA ANA WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL PEAK IN STRENGTH THIS
MORNING...BUT EVEN TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING THE WINDS SHOULD BE VERY
GUSTY. GIVEN THE FACT SOME MOUNTAIN SITES ARE ALREADY GUSTING NEAR
55 MPH...AND THE WINDS SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY...WILL UPGRADE
THE VENTURA/LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING...AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE STRONG ADVISORIES ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE
COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS. FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...THE WARNING LEVEL
GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE MORE LOCALIZED...BUT WILL RUN THE HIGH WIND
WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY AT NOON JUST TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLIFIED. FOR
SAN LUIS OBISPO/SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES...THE OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE
WEAKER (NOT REQUIRING ANY ADVISORIES)...BUT STILL GUSTY IN THE MORE
FAVORED CANYONS.

WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS AND THE RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL
BE ON THE UPSWING THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN FACT BY MONDAY...MOST
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
SAME SYNOPTIC IDEA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...WEAK LOW
WILL APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVE INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...MODELS DROP AN UPPER LOW SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND OVER OUR AREA...THEN MOVE THIS THIS FEATURE INTO
NORTHERN BAJA/SOUTHERN ARIZONA ON FRIDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY FOR
THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY. WITH THE LAST GASP OF
OFFSHORE FLOW...SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR.

FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW (WITH QUITE A
VENGEANCE) WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AND AN
INCREASE IN COASTAL/VALLEY STRATUS. ON THURSDAY...HAVE INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO SOME AREAS AS ALL MODELS SPIT OUT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA.
THE ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST THEN THE GFS WITH THE LOW...BUT EITHER
SOLUTION INDICATE A RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OOMPH TO WARRANT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH THE SHOWER THREAT FOCUSED ACROSS THE CENTRAL COAST...THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY. AS PER THE USUAL SO FAR THIS
SEASON...SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY AND VENTURA COUNTY HAVE A LESSER CHANCE
OF SEEING ANY PRECIP. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 5000 FEET ON
THURSDAY (OR POTENTIALLY LOWER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT)...SO SOME
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOCAL MOUNTAINS.

BY FRIDAY...THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT ANY THREAT
OF SHOWERS FOR THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ADVISORY-LEVEL OFFSHORE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...14/1035Z...MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SANTA ANA
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...AND SHOULD DESCEND QUICKLY INTO
THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH THE OFFSHORE
WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE OFFSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK TODAY ACROSS LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTIES...WHEN GUSTS
BETWEEN 55 AND 65 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE...COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS WILL GENERALLY SEE GUSTS IN THE
40 TO 50 MPH RANGE. SLIGHT WEAKENING OF SANTA ANA WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...BUT WINDS WILL STILL BE VERY GUSTY. PEAK LAX-DAGGETT
GRADIENTS TODAY AND SUNDAY ARE PROJECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN -6 AND -7
MB.

HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND 15 PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER DRYING IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHEN THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HUMIDITIES BETWEEN 8 AND 15 PERCENT. A RED
FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF LOS ANGELES AND VENTURA
COUNTIES FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES...WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND DRY FUELS. OFFSHORE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS STRONG ACROSS SAN LUIS OBSIPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES.
HOWEVER WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TO THESE AREAS.

OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINTAINING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY NE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AT TIMES
THRUOGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WATERS
FROM POINT MUGU TO SANTA MONICA WHERE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE WATERS FROM VENTURA
TO POINT MUGU OUT TO SANTA CRUZ ISLAND...AND ACROSS THE SAN PEDRO
CHANNEL WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS EACH DAY. HAZARDOUS SHORT
PERIOD WAVES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. EASTERLY WIND CHOP WILL BUILD TO 3
TO 5 FEET TODAY AND CONTNUE THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 5 NM
FROM SHORE. THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL AFFECT EAST FACING HARBORS
SUCH AS AVALON HARBOR...AND ANY OTHER HARBORS OR LANDINGS WITH EAST
EXPOSURE.

A LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET AT 18 SECONDS IN THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND TO 6 TO 8 FEET
AT 17 SECONDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
WATERS SOUTH OF PT CONCEPTION SUNDAY NIGHT...BUILDING TO 3 TO 4 FEET
AT 17 SECONDS NEAR SHORE EARLY MONDAY. BUILDING SURF WILL LIKELY
APPROACH THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THRESHOLD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...14/1100Z...HI CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAFS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THE AIRFIELDS THRU THE PERIOD.
GUSTY NE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE MTNS OF L.A. AND VTU COUNTIES...THE
WESTERN L.A. COUNTY VALLEYS...THE VTU COUNTY COAST AND VALLEYS...
AND THE L.A. COUNTY COAST BELOW PASSES AND CANYONS FROM MALIBU TO
THE HOLLYWOOD HILLS. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND UDDF AT
TIMES FOR KBUR DUE TO GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUNDAY MORNING.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 12Z TAF WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THRU SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY N CANYON WINDS IN THE VICINITY WILL
RESULT IN LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND MDT UDDF AT TIMES THIS MORNING.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...RAT
FIRE...GOMBERG
MARINE...SMITH
AVIATION...BRUNO
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1038 AM PST FRI DEC 13 2013

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-141400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
1038 AM PST FRI DEC 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

WFO LOX PLANS TO DISCONTINUE THIS PRODUCT IN 2014.
PLEASE DIRECT ANY COMMENTS TO ERIC BOLDT AT 805-988-6623.

.DAY ONE... TODAY AND TONIGHT

A MODERATE SANTA ANA WIND EVENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND MOVE TO THE VALLEYS AND COASTS OF VENTURA AND LOS
ANGELES COUNTY TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

GUSTY NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AND VALLEYS SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
READINGS...ALONG WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW HUMIDITIES AND OFFSHORE BREEZES WILL LINGER MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

BOLDT