High Wind in California, April 7 to 9, 2013

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT SAT APR 6 2013

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
THE BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS IN SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST AND MOUNTAINS...AND THE
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE PEAK WIND
PERIODS SHOULD OCCUR FROM SUNDAY TO LATE MONDAY...AS A LOW ARRIVES
TO MIX STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO LOWER LEVELS. THE LOW WILL ALSO
BRING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL TO BELOW NORMAL BY MONDAY...THEN BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN ON
TUESDAY. BREEZY OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BRING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THEN A COOLING TREND IS
EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...GUSTY NW WINDS CONTINUED THIS EVENING
OVER THE L.A./VTU/SBA COURTNAY MOUNTAINS...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...
ANTELOPE VALLEY...SBA S COAST...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COAST.
THE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE COAST
AND VALLEYS...BUT PERSIST OVER THE MTNS...ANTELOPE VALLEY AND SBA S
COAST...WHERE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. WIND ADVISORIES ARE
ALSO IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR REST OF THE COAST AND
ADJACENT VALLEYS. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS
OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS...WITH LOW
CLOUDS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ALONG THE L.A. COUNTY
COAST TONIGHT. MORE CLOUDINESS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE N MTN SLOPES OVERNIGHT AS WELL THANKS TO LINGERING
UPSLOPE FLOW.

A BROAD WNW TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER SRN CA THRU SUN...
WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU THE AREA ON SUN.
THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS FOR MANY AREAS...WITH
HIGH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE MTNS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND SBA S COAST.
A RATHER SHARP INSIDE SLIDER UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL PUSH THRU SRN CA
LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL INCREASE FURTHER
ESPECIALLY LATER SUN NIGHT AND MON. WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THRU MON NIGHT OVER THE MTNS...ANTELOPE VALLEY AND SBA S
COAST...WITH POSSIBLE HIGH WINDS FOR THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY AND
SANTA MONICA MTNS. ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS SHOULD SPREAD TO ALL COASTAL
AREAS AND ADJACENT VLYS AS WELL...WHERE WIND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NON-PRECIPITATION WEATHER MESSAGE
(LAXNPWLOX) FOR THE DETAILS ON THIS COMPLEX WIND EVENT WITH HIGH
WIND WATCHES/WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. THE
UPPER TROF WILL SLOWLY MOVE E MON NIGHT AND TUE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE E PAC. THIS WILL KEEP A BROAD N FLOW ALOFT
OVER SRN CA FOR TUE. THE GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER MON
NIGHT THEN DIMINISH ON TUE. SOME CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST AT TIMES
MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SLO/SBA COUNTIES...THE L.A. COUNTY COAST AND
ALONG THEN N MTN SLOPES THRU MON MORNING...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS FOR LATER MON THRU TUE. OTHERWISE...
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HI CLOUDS AT TIMES CAN BE EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD. TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON SUN...COOL BACK TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR MON...THEN WARM AGAIN TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
TUE.

***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH VERY WARM CONDITIONS.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE ALL SUGGEST A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE AND A RETURN
TO ONSHORE FLOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE THIS IS OUT AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THE
TIMING OF OFFSHORE-TO-ONSHORE TRANSITIONS...A COLLING TREND BY THE
WEEKEND SEEMS WARRANTED. NO RAIN POSSIBILITIES IN THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...07/0525Z...STRATUS WAS PATCHY IN NATURE THIS
EVENING...AND SO FAR WAS CONFINED TO PARTS OF SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES...AND NORTH FACING SLOPES. EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF L.A. COUNTY LATER TONIGHT. CONDS WILL BE
GENERALLY MVFR ACROSS L.A. COUNTY COASTAL AREAS AND IFR ELSEWHERE.
MAIN STORY WILL BE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MTNS...VLYS AND ANTELOPE VLY TONIGHT...WITH LLWS AND UDDFS IN THE
VLYS AND ACROSS THE S COAST OF SBA COUNTY.

GUSTY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR KWJF AND KPMD...GUSTY W TO NW WINDS WILL PERSIST
THRU THE PERIOD...WITH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AT KWJF DUE TO BLOWING
DUST ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT SKIES WILL STAY CLEAR THRU THE PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF NORTHERLY CROSSWINDS EXCEEDING 15 KNOTS AFTER FROM 06Z-12Z
MON.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF THRU THE PERIOD...WITH JUST A 10
PERCENT CHANCE OF IFR CONDS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z. HOWEVER...LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND FORECAST. THERE WILL LIKELY BE LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR NEAR THE AIRFIELD AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT NW TO N WINDS COULD EXCEED 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
AFTER 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY...FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY SUNDOWNER WINDS ACROSS
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AS WELL AS STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 5
CORRIDOR AND ANTELOPE VALLEY. THESE AREAS CAN GENERALLY EXPECT WINDS
GUSTING TO BETWEEN 40 AND 60 MPH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL IMPACT MOST COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GREAT BASIN LATER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BRING
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WIND SUPPORT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING NORTHWEST
TO NORTH WIND EVENT LOOKS FAVORABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE
PEAK OF THE EVENT...FAVORED MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD SEE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 70 AND 80 MPH. OTHER AREAS AT RISK FOR POTENTIAL
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH INCLUDE THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH
COAST...ANTELOPE VALLEY...SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...SAN FERNANDO
VALLEY...AND SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS. HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE STRONG
WIND EVENT...HOWEVER MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO AROUND 15 PERCENT BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOS ANGELES COUNTY.

THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
IT APPEARS THAT HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO AN OFFSHORE
DIRECTION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER HUMIDITIES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...SIRARD/KITTELL
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...SETO
FIRE...DG/RK

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
538 PM PDT SAT APR 6 2013

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-071300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
538 PM PDT SAT APR 6 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... THROUGH TONIGHT

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF LOS
ANGELES AND VENTURA COUNTY THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR. DAMAGING GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ANTELOPE VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT AND THROUGH AND BELOW PASSES AND
CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ON THE CENTRAL COAST...AND IN THE SANTA CLARITA AND SANTA
YNEZ VALLEYS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GALE FORCE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AFFECT MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...CREATING
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND MODERATELY DRY
FUELS WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
THOUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 80 MPH IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND 60 MPH IN THE WINDIEST VALLEY LOCATIONS AND BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE ON THE SOUTH COAST OF
SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES. AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
HAVE POWER OUTAGES AND POSSIBLY PROPERTY DAMAGE. IN THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...THERE WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING DUST AND
SAND. IN ADDITION...CROSS WINDS COULD AFFECT AREA AIRPORTS...
INCLUDING LAX. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE DANGEROUS
SEA CONDITIONS OVER ALL COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG WINDS AND MODERATELY DRY FUELS
WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH WIND WATCH............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WATCH...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SIRARD