Hail in Alabama, June 13, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1220 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.UPDATE...
FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 1043 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
WITH A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH...CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM NEAR NASHVILLE
AND ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WARM AND MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO BE
PUMPED ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS MOIST ENVIRONMENT KEPT
MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND HAS ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER QUICK
WARMUP SO FAR. WITH 10AM TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP
CURTAIL THE HEATING THOUGH...AND PREVENT US FROM REACHING THE MID
AND UPPER 90S SEEN IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS YESTERDAY. HAVE INCREASED THE
SKY COVER FORECAST FOR THE LATE EVENING TO REFLECT A MORE WIDESPREAD
CU FIELD THAT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND LIKEWISE
INCREASED THE WIND GUSTS THRU THE AFTERNOON (AOA 20KTS) DUE TO THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

THE WARM TEMPERATURES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA LATER TODAY. SEVERAL
CLOSELY CLUSTERED WAVES OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT (WHICH THE HRRR IS SHOWING AND COMPARED WELL
TO CURRENT CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH). THIS SHOULD START TO REACH OUR
NORTHERN CWA AROUND THE NOON TIMEFRAME...AND TRACK SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PARAMETERS FOR MICROBURST POTENTIAL
(MLCAPE ABV 1500/DCAPE ABV 1000/1000-850MB MIXING RATIOS ABV
15/1000-700MB LAPSE RATES OVER 7) CONTINUE TO INDICATE OUR DAMAGING
WIND THREAT FOR THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. LARGE HAIL REMAINS OUR SECONDARY
THREAT...BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE CORES WILL BE NEEDED TO ACHIEVE THIS
DUE TO THE HIGH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS (NEAR 11KFT PER THE 12Z OHX/BMX
SOUNDINGS). REDSTONE ARSENAL WILL BE SENDING UP A 16Z
SOUNDING...WHICH WILL BE USEFUL IN DETERMINING THE DEVELOPING TRENDS
OF OUR LOCAL ENVIRONMENT.

CCC

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS WILL BE PREDOMINANT THRU THE PERIOD. GUSTY
W WINDS (20-25KT GUSTS FROM 250-300 DEG) WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTN. THE FRONT WILL BRING A SCT
ROUND OF TSRA TO THE REGION BTWN 18-00Z...AND A SHIFT TO NW WINDS
WILL FOLLOW BEHIND. ANY TSRA THAT DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS COULD
DROP CIGS INTO MVFR/ALT REQ...BUT QUESTIONS ABOUT COVERAGE OF TSRA
AND THEREFORE TIMING OF THESE DROPS AT THE TERMINALS PRECLUDES
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. GUSTS AND CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER FOR
SEVERAL HRS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES...WITH WINDS SLACKENING AND
SHIFTING MORE TO THE N OVERNIGHT AND THRU THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

CCC

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
459 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-131830-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DEKALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
459 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TODAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING. BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF THE
TENNESSEE RIVER DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IN THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

FORMAL ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.

RSB