Strong low-level winds gusting to 46 to 49 mph (40 to 43 knots) affected south-central and southeast Wisconsin on November 11th. Widely scattered power outages were reported due to wind-broken tree limbs impacting power-lines.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
Strong low-level winds gusting to 46 to 49 mph (40 to 43 knots) affected south-central and southeast Wisconsin on November 11th. Widely scattered power outages were reported due to wind-broken tree limbs impacting power-lines. These winds were assoicated with a deep mid-upper level trough, with 850 mb winds of 60 to 80 knots. Some of this high-momentum wind mixed down to the surface ahead of a strong cold front during the mid-morning to early evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 11, 11:19 AM CST, 3 hours 41 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1119 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012
.UPDATE...INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AS SEEN IN THE
MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MODEL ANALYSES. MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE
TIMING OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND ITS ASSOCIATED IMPACT ON
TEMPS AND WINDS...AND WEATHER/POPS. NO CHANGES IN HEADLINES IN
THIS UPDATE. WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS
SOUTH CENTRAL TODAY ENDING AT 6PM...WITH FAR EAST COUNTIES ENDING
AT 8PM.
MSAS AND SFC OBS AS OF 9 AM SHOW SURFACE COLD FRONT POSITION ALONG
A LINE FROM JUST EAST OF EAU CLAIRE WI...TO NEAR DECORAH IA...TO
NEAR OTTUMWA IA. QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING SHARPLY BEHIND FROPA. AT 9AM...LA CROSSE WAS 57 AHEAD OF
FROPA WITH PRESTON AT 41 BEHIND IT...TO 30 AT FAIRBAULT MN. VIS
SAT SHOWS A DENSE CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS INTO PORTIONS OF SE WI AND
GOES BACK TO EASTERN MN.
NOT MANY CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND WIND FCST SO FAR IN THE
TODAY PERIOD. THOUGH UPDATED THE IMMEDIATE NEAR-TERM FOR
TRENDS...WITH TEMPS AND WINDS ON TRACK WITH GUIDANCE AND THE
EXPECTED FROPA STILL. WX/POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK IN THE NEAR-TIME
WITH RESPECT TO TIMING BASED ON RADAR AND HI-RES MODEL. WINDS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AS NAM SOUNDINGS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURE PROFILE SHOWED BORDERLINE CRITERIA BEING MET FOR GUSTS
AND SUSTAINED WINDS.
ELSEWHERE...POPS AND WX LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WERE
NOT CHANGED MUCH. WILL MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AS WELL. THE HI-RES
MODELS...LOCAL WRF AND HRRR...REFLECTIVITY FIELDS ARE HANDLING THE
NATURE AND TIMING OF THE PRESENT PRECIPITATION WELL COMPARED TO
THE RADAR MOSAIC...WILL BE USING THEM FOR POPS/WX TIMING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RADAR. GIVEN ELEVATED CAPE...ISOLATED THUNDER
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LIFT AVAILABLE.
PRECIPITATION FIELD CORRESPONDS WELL WITH STRONG SURFACE
FRONTOGENESIS AND THE FIELD\S LOCATION WITH RESPECT TO STRONG
LLJ/LLJ NOSE. AT NOON AT 850 HPA...A WIND MAX OF AROUND 60-65 KTS
IS SEEN GENERALLY SOUTH OF WI-IL BORDER...WITH LLJ STRENGTHENING
AND POSITIONING ITSELF OVER LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR IN POSITION AND SPEEDS
OF LLJ...THOUGH THE GFS AND RAP ARE A BIT STRONGER. DO EXPECT COLD
FRONT TO SPEED UP A BIT IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC LOW LIFTS AND
MOVES TO THE NE TOWARDS JAMES BAY.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REACH MADISON BY 20Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN TAF SITES
BETWEEN 22Z SUNDAY AND 00Z MONDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL REACH MADISON BY 23Z SUNDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES
BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY GUST TO 39 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT..WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS STILL EXPECTED.
THE RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THIS EVENING...THEN
END AT MADISON BY 06Z MONDAY...AND THE EASTERN SITES BY 10Z TO 11Z
MONDAY. MAY SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MIX IN BRIEFLY WITH THE RAIN
TOWARDS THESE ENDING TIMES...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
BRISK WEST WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS
AT TIMES. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER THE PRECIPITATION ENDS...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
AND FLURRIES EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z MONDAY ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG MIXING OF
WINDS FROM THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BRING FREQUENT GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH WAVES WILL RESULT...UP TO 4 TO 8 FEET.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL BRING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS THAT WILL SHIFT
WEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY UP
TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT AND MONDAY...LINGERING INTO MONDAY EVENING.
THESE WINDS WILL HELP WAVES SUBSIDE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...AND
REMAINING BELOW 4 FEET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALE
WARNING EXPIRES AND THROUGH MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
STRONG DYNAMIC SETUP COMING UP TODAY. DEEP UPPER TROUGH IN THE
ROCKIES PUSHES OUT INTO THE PLAINS WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS THIS
AFTERNOON. 500 MB 12 HOUR FALLS OF 60 TO 80 METERS SPREAD INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE LOW NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...VERY STRONG AND DEEP FRONTOGENESIS SHOWN BEHIND
SURGING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD ENTER FAR WEST AROUND NOON
AND THEN PROBABLY JUST EAST OF A LINE FROM FLD TO RFD BY 00Z MON.
BRIEF PERIOD OF NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH
EARLIER 65 KNOT 850 MB WIND MAX THAT PUSHED THROUGH. MODELS SHOW A
LULL IN LOW LEVEL JET THEN A NEW NARROW SURGED SHOWN JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SHOWS UP TO
80 KNOTS AT 850 MB OVER SHEBOYGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MEAN WIND
IN SURFACE TO 850 MB LAYER OF NEARLY 60 KNOTS...CERTAINLY CONCERN
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SO WILL GO WITH WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HRRR SURFACE GUST POTENTIAL
INDICATES 40 KNOTS AND GFS BUFKIT SHOWING SIMILAR GUST POTENTIAL
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE LAKE SHORE.
RAIN SHOULD SPREAD EAST ALONG WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND MAY
NOT QUITE REACH LAKE SHORE BY 00Z.
TONIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH
CONTINUED CRASHING OF UPPER HEIGHTS AS FULL LATITUDE TROUGH CRASHES
THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. 500 MB 12 HOUR FALLS OF 180
METERS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...HELPING USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR.
WINDS SHOULD DIE DOWN BEHIND COLD FRONT SO WILL LET WIND ADVISORY
EXPIRE IN THE WESTERN AREAS AT 00Z AND 02Z IN THE EAST PER
COORDINATION WITH DVN AND LOT WFOS.
RAIN SHOULD END PRIOR TO AIR COOLING ENOUGH FOR CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...HAVE A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PRECIPITATION BUT GUT FEELING IS THAT PROBABLY IS PRETTY LOW.
ALMOST ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE PRECIP CUTTING OFF RIGHT ABOUT
THE TIME THAT THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE CRASHES TO ZERO OR COLDER.
TREMENDOUS COLD ADVECTION SHOULD DROP WESTERN AREAS INTO THE LOWER
20S BY MORNING DESPITE CLOUD COVER WITH CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN
TO -10C BY 12Z MONDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
IT WILL BE A COLD...DRY AND MOSTLY CLOUDY MONDAY. EXPECT CLEARING
BEHIND THE FRONT TO LAST INTO MONDAY MORNING AND THEN INSTABILITY
CLOUDS WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW
REGIME WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING. FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON LOW CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE BRISK OUT OF
THE WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MAX TEMPS WILL WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 30S...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.
LINGERING TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL ONLY ALLOW
FOR A WEAK INVERSION...THUS KEEPING MIN TEMPS IN CHECK. WITH 925MB
TEMPS AROUND -4C...EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN AND BRING DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. 500MB PATTERN WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. A SMALL RIPPLE IN THE FLOW
MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO WI TUE NIGHT/WED...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST
MIGHT BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM AIR ADVECTION.
THE LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO DRY TOO ALLOW FOR ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIP. DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN WI CONTINUES.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK...BEGINNING AROUND 40 ON
TUESDAY AND ENDING UP AROUND 50 FOR THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...
NEXT WEEKEND...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS TRENDED AWAY FROM PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. IT LOOKS LIKE BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
50.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
LOW LEVEL SHEAR EARLY THIS MORNING WITH 55 KNOTS AT 2000 FEET AGL
SHOULD RELAX AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO 35 OR 40 KNOTS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY AT KMKE AND
KENW THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT.
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY
RAIN AND RUMBLE OF THUNDER EXPECTED JUST BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON IN KMSN AND IN SOUTHEAST TAF SITES LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH RAPIDLY BEHIND COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER RAIN ENDS DURING THE
EVENING AND THEN EVENTUALLY TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLDER AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR RAIN TO END AS BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR SLEET
AT KMSN DURING THE EVENING...BUT NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED WITH
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
MARINE...
ALREADY GUSTING NEAR GALE FORCE EARLY THIS MORNING AT KENOSHA HARBOR
AND EXPECT GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF STRONG COLD FRONT. THUS GALE WARNING FOR MID
MORNING INTO THE EVENING LOOKS GOOD.
WINDS SHIFT TO WEST AND DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS EVENING. DUE TO HIGH WAVES AND BRISK WEST WINDS...WILL LIKELY
NEED TO DOWNGRADE GALE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THIS EVENING AND RUN
IT THROUGH MONDAY. WAVES WILL DIMINISH WITH OFFSHORE FLOW BUT
WESTERLY GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUING BEHIND FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ051-057-058-063-
064-068-069.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052-059-060-065-
066-070>072.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
UPDATE...ET/WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...CRAVEN
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRCHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 135 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-121100- MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- 135 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM FOR MILWAUKEE...RACINE... KENOSHA AND WALWORTH COUNTIES. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED...UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. LMZ643>646-121100- SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI- PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI- NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI- WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL- 135 PM CST SUN NOV 11 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 40 KNOTS...PRODUCING HIGH WAVES. WEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. DAVIS WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, November 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 421279, 421280, 421281, 421282, 421283.