Gusty south to southeast winds affected the eastern counties of Southeast Wisconsin around the mid-day hours of February 26th. The gusty winds were produced in a tightening pressure gradient ahead of strong low pressure that tracked across central Minnesota to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
Gusty south to southeast winds affected the eastern counties of Southeast Wisconsin around the mid-day hours of February 26th. The gusty winds were produced in a tightening pressure gradient ahead of strong low pressure that tracked across central Minnesota to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The strong winds would have occurred over a longer period of time, but the start was delayed until a low-level inversion over a snow cover across the area mixed out with daytime heating. The Sheboygan C-MAN recorded sustained winds of 32 to 39 mph (28 knots to 32 knots), with a peak gust of 45 mph (39 knots), while the Sheboygan airport reported a peak gust of 43 mph. Wind gusts over the remainder of southeast Wisconsin were in the 35 to 43 mph range, which was below strong wind criteria.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 26, 11:05 AM CST, 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1105 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012
.UPDATE...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN WI BY EARLY EVENING AND ACROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD BE APPROACHING THEIR
HIGHEST SPEEDS AND GUSTS BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND 1 PM...PER RUC AND 12Z
NAM MODEL SNDGS. WE ARE JUST BEGINNING TO MIX INTO THE STRONG WINDS
THAT ARE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THE
EXACT HEIGHT OF MIXING IS VERY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE MID CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AND SNOW PACK/COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MODELS SUGGEST
MIXING UP TO AROUND 1500 FEET AT MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT UP TO 2000
FEET AT SHEBOYGAN AND NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...OPTED TO ADD SHEBOYGAN
COUNTY TO THE EXISTING WIND ADVISORY.
MAX TEMPS ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IS STRONG AND UPSTREAM OBS IN EASTERN IOWA ARE ALREADY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ON THE NORTH END OF THE SNOWPACK. KEPT
CONSERVATIVE MAX TEMPS AROUND 40 TO 41 GIVEN OUR SNOWPACK AND MID
CLOUDS OVERHEAD LIMITING THE HEATING AND MIXING...BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THEM AND MAY NEED TO BUMP THEM UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL REACH NORTHERN WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGH TONIGHT OUT OF
THE WEST DUE THE COLD AIR ADVECTION.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOW TAPPING INTO THE STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE CAUSING HIGH WIND GUSTS. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN...INCLUDING MKE AND ENW. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR SOUTHEAST WI. WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS LIKELY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO
40 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
WITH 55 KNOT WINDS AROUND 2000 FT THIS MORNING...LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS BETWEEN THE
SURFACE WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS...AND 3000 FEET WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS.
VFR CIGS TODAY...THEN MVFR AS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE STRONG LOW INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN LATE TONIGHT. THE
MVFR CIGS COULD SAG TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER TOWARDS SUNRISE
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST MN WILL REACH NORTHERN WI LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSS THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z. THIS IS THE TIME PERIOD
WITH THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL WITH A SOUTH WIND AND SLIGHT ONSHORE
COMPONENT. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS WINDS VEER
SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS AHEAD OF LOW WILL BUILD LARGE WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE NEEDED AFTER THE GALES EXPIRE DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA
BY NOON AND REACH SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.
THE SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE DEEPER MIXING NEAR THE SHORELINE...SO EXPECT
HIGHEST WINDS THERE. ELSEWHERE...IT IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
FAR UP THE AIR WILL MIX. 00Z NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING WINDS UP TO 60
KNOTS AT 850 MB BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW HIGH THE MIXED LAYER WILL
GET TO. BY THE TIME LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO 5 C/KM FROM 900 MB IS
THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST WINDS HAVE PUSHED OFF
TO THE EAST. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS MIX 35 KNOT GUSTS AROUND NOON
IN THE SOUTHEAST. RUC MIXES OUT HIGHER ALMOST TO 2 THSD FT AND
MIXES GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KNOTS AT MKE. HOWEVER GIVEN SNOW COVER AND
CURRENT INVERSION THIS MAY BE TO AGGRESSIVE. LAV GUST GUIDANCE
KEEPS GUSTS TO 32 KNOTS.
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO TRICKY AS THE 850 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION COOLS
BY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THE SNOW COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT
BEST MID 30S. THERE IS A SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST
MISSOURI WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE MID 40S. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST LAYERS IT MAY BE BEST
TO GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE RUC.
FAIRLY STRONG 700 MB UPWARD MOTION OF 9 UBAR/SEC WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER MID LEVELS
SATURATE ONLY IN THE 12 TO 18 THSD FT LAYER WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT IN
THE DRIER LOW LEVELS. THEREFORE EXPECT MAINLY VIRGA WITH ONLY A FEW
FLURRIES REACHING THE GROUND.
EARLY TONIGHT A STRONG WEST WIND OCCURS AT 850 MB ON THE 06Z
NAM...REACHING 70 KNOTS. THIS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES BEHIND
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM MOS FOR THIS.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COUPLE VORTS WITHIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER AIRMASS QUITE DRY WITH PLENTY OF 700
DOWNWARD MOTION AND LOWER LEVEL COOL ADVECTION. 500 MILLIBAR FLOW
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. SURFACE/850 GRADIENT SUGGESTS A
NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT
WITH SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES COMING CLOSER DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WINDS SHOULD EASE.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/850 RIDGE AXES WELL TO THE EAST. STRONG S/SE FLOW DEVELOPS
IN THE LOW LEVELS. CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP IN RESPONSE TO HIGHLY
DYNAMICAL UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING IOWA. WARM ADVECTION
INCREASES...WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS ON HOW QUICK
THE 850/925 LAYER WARMS. SURFACE TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
IF NAM SCENARIO PANS OUT WITH THE MORE PRONOUNCED WARM SURGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME SLEET POTENTIAL NOTED ON NAM SOUNDING AT KMSN.
TUESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
VERY CONSISTENT SIGNALS FOR THE MAIN PRECIP EVENT THIS TIME FRAME
WITH STRONG WAVE IMPINGING ON THE CWA. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP
OCCURRENCE AND LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPE. DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION ...NOSE OF 250 JET AIMED RIGHT INTO
THE CWA AND CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING
HIGHER THETA-E AIR INTO SRN WI. MAIN CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
PRECIP TYPE. ECMWF SUGGESTS NORTHERN CWA REMAINS ALL SNOW WHILE
OTHER MODELS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TIGHT 850 BAROCLINIC ZONE
SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH OUT OF THE CWA. APPEARS THE SOUTHERN CWA
WILL BE ALL RAIN WITH CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS FOR A PURELY
WARM PROFILE THERE...BUT THE NORTH REMAINS VULNERABLE TO THE
WINTRY MIX OR ALL SNOW. PONDERED THUNDER IN PARTS OF THE SOUTH
THOUGH LAPSE RATES/ELEVATED CAPE TOO MARGINAL FOR GRID INCLUSION
AT THIS POINT.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE/UPPER LOW PROGGD TO SHIFT ACROSS SRN WI. 700 LOW POSITION
FAVORS THE NORTHERN CWA QPF MAX OF AROUND A TENTH OR A SMIDGE
HIGHER. THERMAL PROFILE SUPPORTS A TRANSITION TO SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL TAKE HOLD AND BRING A QUIET DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE PRIOR DAYS STORM SYSTEM.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST AND AN
INITIAL WAVE RIDES NORTHEAST TOWARDS SE WI. MAIN VORT/UPPER TROUGH
WILL THEN WAFFLE ACROSS WI ON SATURDAY KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES GOING.
GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THIS LOW RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHILE THE ECMWF IS A SKEWED A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE
TO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY NOON AND REACH SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR
THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.
SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
LIKELY. 55 KNOT WINDS DEVELOPING AROUND 2 THSD FT THIS MORNING. THE
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST FROM MID MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH COMPONENT...THEN THEY WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH AT 2 THSD FT AS THEY VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER AT THE SURFACE WINDS WILL GUSTY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE. SOME GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
EARLY TONIGHT A STRONG WEST WIND OCCURS AT 850 MB ON THE 06Z
NAM...REACHING 70 KNOTS. THIS WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES BEHIND
COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT. WILL INCREASE WINDS FROM MOS FOR THIS AND MAY
ALSO BRING SOME WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL.
MAINLY VFR CIGS TODAY...THEN MVFR AS COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES
IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE STRONG LOW INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN
PORTIONS TOWARD THE DELLS TO SHEBOYGAN LATE TONIGHT. THE MVFR CIGS
COULD SAG TOWARD THE ILLINOIS BORDER TOWARDS SUNRISE MONDAY.
MARINE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE TO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA BY NOON AND REACH SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING.
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE LOW CROSSING TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING.
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 15Z TO 21Z. THIS IS THE TIME
PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL WITH A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND ONSHORE COMPONENT. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS
WINDS VEER SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT. WINDS
AHEAD OF LOW WILL BUILD LARGE WAVES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE
NEEDED AFTER THE GALES EXPIRE DUE TO BRISK WEST WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ052-060-065-
066-069>072.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
UPDATE...MRC
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLARHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1000 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-271015- MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- 1000 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL PERSIST INTO MID AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY. THE MIXTURE MAY CHANGE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...FROM THE DELLS...TO FOND DU LAC AND TO SHEBOYGAN. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE NORTH OF THIS AREA. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS APPROACHING WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LMZ643>646-271015- SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI- PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI- NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI- WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL- 1000 AM CST SUN FEB 26 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS EVENING. FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RESULTING STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TONIGHT. BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS REMAINING AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A SECOND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY. BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND RESULTING BUILDING WAVES WILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. MRC WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, February 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 367359.