Washington, 2012

High Wind and Strong Wind in Washington, January 24, 2012

January 24, 2012 · NWS SEW · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

High wind occurred over the northwest interior and near Carnation.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$30,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.

High wind occurred over the northwest interior and near Carnation.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 24, 4:04 AM PST, 3 hours 52 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 24, 4:04 AM PST, 3 hours 52 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
404 AM PST TUE JAN 24 2012

UPDATED THE AVIATION SEGMENT.

.SYNOPSIS...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING RAIN...WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND MOUNTAIN SNOW. WEAKER SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN WET
WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN TO TYPICALLY WET
JANUARY WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A VIGOROUS PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH WILL AFFECT WESTERN WASHINGTON
THROUGH TONIGHT. AT 2 AM SKIES WERE CLOUDY ACROSS WESTERN
WASHINGTON...BUT RAIN HAD NOT YET REACHED THE COAST. PRECIPITATION
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT.

THE PARENT LOW OF THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS TRACKING TOWARD HAIDA
GWAII...BUT THE MOIST 160+ KT WES-SOUTHWEST JET WILL BE AIMED RIGHT
AT WESTERN WASHINGTON MUCH OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT IS STILL HARD TO
SAY WHERE THE TRIPLE POINT -- THAT IS THE INTERSECTION OF THE
OCCLUSION WITH THE WARM AND COLD FRONTS -- WILL BE...BUT MOST LIKELY
IT WILL BE NEAR THE CORE OF THE UPPER JET. THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS
TO CONSIDER WITH REGARD TO FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL ZONES AND
NORTHWEST INTERIOR...HOWEVER THE CASE FOR HIGH WIND LOOKS MARGINAL.
WE HAVE DECIDED TO SWITCH THE WATCH TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR THOSE
ZONES...WITH WINDS 20 TO 35 MPH AND GUSTS 45 TO 55 MPH. THAT IS JUST
A NOTCH BELOW HIGH WIND CRITERIA...AND ISOLATED REPORTS OF HIGH WIND
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A WIND ADVISORY WILL ALSO GO INTO
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE PUGET SOUND AREA...WITH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
AND GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST...IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTH PART OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON. TOTALS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 1
TO 2 INCHES AT THE COAST...2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE OLYMPICS AND
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...1 TO 3 INCHES
OVER THE CASCADES...AND UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE INTERIOR LOWLANDS.

PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW THIS MORNING IN PARTS OF THE HOOD
CANAL ZONE...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING AND UPSLOPE
CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST FLANK OF THE OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COLD FOR A LITTLE WHILE. LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE LOW THIS MORNING BUT RISE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH...
REACHING SOMETHING LIKE 3500 FT IN THE NORTH CASCADES AND 6000 FT IN
THE CENTRAL CASCADES. THEN THE SNOW LEVEL WILL FALL TO AROUND 3000
FT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WHERE PRECIPITATION IS
FALLING AS SNOW...THERE WILL BE HEAVY SNOW. EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PASSES SHOULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT. ON TOP OF THAT... THERE WILL BE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
AVALANCHES. THERE IS CURRENTLY A WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT WHICH
WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE FEATURES WILL SURELY BE EMBEDDED IN
THE WESTERLIES...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THESE
FEATURES. IT WILL BE A WET PERIOD AND BREEZY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
AT THE COAST AND IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR. THE SNOW LEVEL IN THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE 2000 TO 3000 FT. MOST LIKELY THE JET WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SOUTH OF WESTERN WASHINGTON SOMETIME THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD OFFSHORE...AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATER
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT.  MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE OFFSHORE UPPER RIDGE
MENTIONED ABOVE SHOULD BRING WESTERN WASHINGTON A DRY AND RATHER
COOL DAY ON FRIDAY. BEYOND FRIDAY MODEL AGREEMENT AND RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY IS POOR. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOWS ANYTHING TOO
SIGNIFICANT HAPPENING...BUT THE GFS SHOWS FAIRLY WEAK FEATURES
MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE THE
EUROPEAN MODEL SHOWS STRONGER SYSTEMS. THE DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
LOOKS A BIT OPTIMISTIC AT THIS POINT...BUT I WILL LEAVE IT ALONE TO
AVOID FLIP FLOPPING.   MCDONNAL

&&

.HYDROLOGY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL FALL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE OLYMPIC
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL RISE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE RIVER BASINS IN THAT AREA
WILL FALL AS RAIN.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LOOK VERY CLOSE TO THE CLASSIC
FLOOD-PRODUCING PATTERN FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS
AROUND 5520 METERS...40+ KT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 850 MB...AND A SWATH
OF MOISTURE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. THE EVENT IS BRIEF
THOUGH...WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE CONTRIBUTION OF LOW ELEVATION SNOWMELT RUNOFF WILL BE
MINOR. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AND THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE 3000 FT OR LESS.

AT THIS POINT IT REALLY LOOKS LIKE WE FACE JUST A THREAT OF MINOR
FLOODING FOR THE MOST FLOOD-PRONE RIVERS OF THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. IN OTHER WORDS...THE SKOKOMISH RIVER...
THE REACH OF THE PUYALLUP RIVER NEAR ORTING...AND THE CHEHALIS
RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TO COVER THIS SITUATION.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS NO FORESEEABLE FLOOD THREAT FOR FRIDAY AND
BEYOND.   MCDONNAL

&&

.AVIATION...VERY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING THE WA COAST.
EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. STRONG
LOW LEVEL SLY OR ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING TODAY.

THE FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BE ELY THROUGH THIS MORNING WHEREAS THE
FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC WAS SLY AND WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS.
THIS HAS RESULTED IN LLWS AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS
CONDITION TO PERSIST TIL ABOUT 1800 UTC OVER THE COAST AND 0000 UTC
WED OVER THE INTERIOR OR ONCE THE SOUTHERLIES MIX DOWN TO THE SFC.

MEANWHILE...ANTICIPATE CIGS TO LOWER INTO THE 1-3K FT RANGE AND
VSBYS TO LOWER MAINLY INTO THE 3-5SM RANGE TODAY AS PRECIP
OVERSPREADS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE MTNS WILL BE OBSCD TODAY.

KSEA..CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BE NEAR 2K
FT BY 2000 UTC. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TIL 0000 UTC WED DUE TO
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE THE SFC. EXPECT WINDS TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE FROM THE SSW ABOUT 0000 UTC WED...WITH LLWS ENDING.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 960 MB HEADING TOWARD HAIDA GWAII
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. EXPECT A COLD FRONT FROM
A SECONDARY LOW MOVING ACROSS HAIDA GWAII TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON
WED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ALSO...ANTICIPATE A LARGE SWELL TRAIN
TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE COASTAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH WED.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR PART OF THE
     FORECAST AREA.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PST WEDNESDAY FOR ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
     CENTRAL COAST-EVERETT AND VICINITY-HOOD CANAL AREA-NORTH
     COAST-SAN JUAN COUNTY-SEATTLE/BREMERTON AREA-TACOMA AREA-
     WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR
     CENTRAL COAST-NORTH COAST.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM PST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WEST SLOPES CENTRAL CASCADES AND PASSES-WEST
     SLOPES NORTHERN CASCADES AND PASSES.

PZ...GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE CENTRAL
     STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN
     DE FUCA TIL 6 PM PST TODAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH BAR UNTIL 6 PM PST WEDNESDAY
     FOR THE GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

     GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
     CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

YOU CAN SEE AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML.

Event by event

3 high wind, 2 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Admiralty Inlet Area

When
January 24, 7:56 AM PST to 6:03 PM PST
Where
Admiralty Inlet Area forecast zone
Measured
36 kt (41 mph) measured sustained
Reported by
Mesonet

Freeland recorded sustained wind of 42 mph. The ASOS at Navy Whidbey recorded a gust to 58 mph.

High Wind, Western Whatcom County

When
January 24, 1:22 PM PST to 5:30 PM PST
Where
Western Whatcom County forecast zone
Measured
39 kt (45 mph) measured sustained
Reported by
Mesonet

Observations from Cherry point, Sandy Point Shores, and near Bellingham recorded sustained wind of 44-45 mph.

Strong Wind, Hood Canal Area

When
January 24, 5:00 PM PST to 9:00 PM PST
Where
Hood Canal Area forecast zone
Measured
45 kt (52 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$10,000
Reported by
Newspaper

Strong winds sent a fir tree into the family room of a home in south Kitsap.

High Wind, East Puget Sound Lowlands

When
January 24, 6:00 PM PST to 8:00 PM PST
Where
East Puget Sound Lowlands forecast zone
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Trained Spotter

A spotter near Carnation recorded at 60 mph gust.

Strong Wind, Seattle/Bremerton Area

When
January 24, 7:00 PM PST to 11:00 PM PST
Where
Seattle/Bremerton Area forecast zone
Measured
46 kt (53 mph) measured gust
Property damage
$20,000
Reported by
Newspaper

Strong winds toppled trees into a house and into two cars in the Seattle metro areas.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Strong Wind
Non-thunderstorm winds below high wind criteria that nonetheless caused damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Washington in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2012

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 361427, 361426, 362050, 361425, 362051.