An upper trough over the Northeast and a shortwave trough to our south made for partly cloudy conditions overnight. Temperatures were able to reach freezing in the Shenandoah Valley.
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The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
An upper trough over the Northeast and a shortwave trough to our south made for partly cloudy conditions overnight. Temperatures were able to reach freezing in the Shenandoah Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 2:56 AM EST, 49 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
356 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES...AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 07Z...UPR TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING SOUTHEAST APPARENT ALONG MI/OH BORDER WITH A SFC TROUGH
JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACROSS THE RUST BELT. LIGHT PRECIP IS AHEAD OF
THIS SFC TROUGH...ALL SNOW IS HIGHER TONIGHT...ABOVE ABOUT 3000 FT
/PER 34 DEGREES IN 715Z KHSP OB/ WITH LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX BELOW THIS
LEVEL WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT. ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
AS OF THIS TIME EAST OF THE ALLEGHENY FRONT.
TODAY...SHORTWAVE TROUGH STRONGER THAN THE ONE THAT PASSED THURSDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LWX CWA THIS
MORNING...BRINGING LOWER CLOUDS AND FOR THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA
INCLUDING BALT-WASH SPRINKLES WITH FLURRIES ABOVE ABOUT 1000 FT
AFTER COOLING FROM THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BREAK
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...THOUGH LIKE YESTERDAY
SUNSHINE MAY BE LIMITED. MAX TEMPS A MAV/MET BLEND...UPR 40S TO 50F
WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...LOW TO MID 50S EAST. WLY FLOW STRONGER
TODAY...GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON...GUSTS ON THE
STRONGER END WITH MORE SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT...WINDS SHIFT NWLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE AT LEAST 5-10
MPH OVER NIGHT...MAY BE SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 KT RANGE...THOUGH
THESE MAY BE LIMITED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS QUANTITY OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS LOW. MIN TEMPS SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH MORE MIXING.
CENTRAL SHEN VLY AND VA PIEDMONT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S. SHOULD
DECOUPLING OCCUR FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE...FREEZE WARNING IS SOMETHING
FOR THE DAY SHIFT TO CONSIDER. ONGOING UPSLOPE SNOW...1 TO 2 MORE
INCHES TODAY/TONIGHT ABOVE ABOUT 2000 FT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
CWFA WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DRY...WITH
TEMPS CONTINUING BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA DURING
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT KEEPING ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
FAIRLY LIGHT AND CONFINED TO THE SOUTH. POPS LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION
AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY.
THE SECOND SYSTEM...THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...LOOKS TO IMPACT THE
CWFA DURING THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE STATES ON TUESDAY...AND MOVE UP
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE PROGGING
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWFA.
IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WOULD INDICATE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DURING THE TIME PERIOD.
MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED WIND AND WIND GUST GRIDS IN
THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. UPPED SUSTAINED/GUSTS ACROSS
THE WATERS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CIGS /MID LEVEL CLOUDS COME IN THIS MORNING/ AND VFR VSBYS
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. WLY FLOW GUSTS MORE THAN YESTERDAY...TO AT LEAST
20 KT STARTING IN THE LATE MORNING. NWLY FLOW TONIGHT...SOME GUSTS
INTO 20 KT RANGE POSSIBLE...BUT GENERALLY AOB 10 KT.
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA DURING
THE LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST OF THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SUN/MON SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE SECOND
SYSTEM...THE STRONGER OF THE TWO...WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
PRECIP TO THE EASTERN TERMINAL SITES LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
WLY FLOW 10 TO 15 KT /20 KT GUSTS OVER MAIN STEM OF BAY/ WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. SCA FOR ALL WATERS
BEGINS AT 10 AM AND CONTINUES UNTIL 8PM. SCA FOR ALL BUT MIDDLE/UPR
TIDAL POTOMAC AND NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. NWLY FLOW
TONIGHT.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE AREA FOR
SATURDAY. W/NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
DOES LOOK LIKE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW CRITERIA SATURDAY EVENING.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS AND UP THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN 1.5 FT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS IN DC
AREA...AROUND 1 FT ELSEWHERE. WLY FLOW WILL KEEP WATER IN THE BAY
TODAY...THOUGH NO COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED. NWLY FLOW TONIGHT WILL
DRAIN BAY EFFICIENTLY...BRINGING WATER LEVELS BACK TO NORMAL.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ531>534-
537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ530-535-536.
&&
SYNOPSIS...BAJ/NWL
NEAR TERM...BAJ
SHORT TERM...NWL
LONG TERM...NWL
AVIATION...BAJ/NWL
MARINE...BAJ/NWL
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BAJHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1202 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ006-007-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ052>057- 021015- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS- CALVERT-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 1202 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A SMALL ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER AND MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF POOLES ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE POSTED FOR THE WATERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MDZ003>005-009-010-501-502-VAZ025>031-036>040-042-050-051-501>504- WVZ050>053-055-501>506-021015- WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON- ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- 1202 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. JACKSON
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 frost/freeze. Local standard time, as filed.
Temperatures ranged from 31 to 32 degrees and were reported at the Shenandoah Airport.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, November 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 419418.