Unusually moist air for mid-October was carried into the Texas South Plains on the 11th ahead of a vigorous upper low in the four corners region. By the afternoon of the 12th, this upper low tracked into Colorado accompanied by a strong subtropical jet that overspread the South Plains.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Unusually moist air for mid-October was carried into the Texas South Plains on the 11th ahead of a vigorous upper low in the four corners region. By the afternoon of the 12th, this upper low tracked into Colorado accompanied by a strong subtropical jet that overspread the South Plains. With surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s and diminishing stratocumulus clouds, strong instability developed by late afternoon over the central South Plains. Very strong wind shear already in place was made even stronger near a warm front that began lifting slowly north between Lubbock and Plainview. By 1700 CST, a pair of strong and severe storms erupted near Shallowater and began moving north-northeast. One of these storms developed strong low-level rotation as it crossed the warm front near Hale Center and assumed an easterly motion. This rotation culminated in two tornadoes over open land in eastern Hale County. Earlier, this same storm produced very large hail up to baseball size that damaged several vehicle windows at a rest stop on I-27. Also, large hail up to golf ball size accompanied a left-moving supercell that raced northward near I-27. Both of these supercells decayed around 1900 CST before a third supercell late this evening entered Yoakum County from neighboring Lea County, NM. Although NWS Lubbock Doppler Radar indicated the likelihood of large hail west and northwest of Plains, this final supercell did not produce any known severe weather before it evolved into a line of strong thunderstorms while overspreading much of the South Plains before midnight.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 12, 2:40 PM CST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 340 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012 .SHORT TERM... A TIGHT CLOSED LOW WAS SLOWLY MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN EARLY THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH MOST HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE FARTHER NORTH OF THE REGION...THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL STILL SEE AROUND 30-40M OF FALLS. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A FRONT HAD MOVED FARTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING STRETCHING FROM ABOUT HOBBS TO PADUCAH. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WAS RETREATING BACK NORTHWARD WITH HEATING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE WEAK CONVERGENCE WEST OF THE AREA WHERE A DRYLINE IS SHARPENING UP. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THE DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BACKED SOUTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO DRAW IN ABNORMALLY HIGH MOISTURE FOR OCTOBER. THIS INCREDIBLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SURFACE CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THIS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER LIMITING HEATING. MODELS DO SHOW ENOUGH HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND ERODING ALL OF THE CIN. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS STILL AROUND 100 CIN THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME. AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL STILL SEE ABUNDANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IF THE CAP BREAKS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY SUPPORTING ORGANIZED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. EVEN THOUGH STORMS WILL BE MOVING RAPIDLY...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LCLS MAY CAUSE HEAVY RAINFALL. SHEAR VECTORS FROM THE SURFACE TO 1KM ARE PROGGED TO BE AROUND 20-25KT WITH 0-3KM HELICITY BETWEEN 200 AND 250. ANY SUPERCELLS NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ABLE TO INTERACT TO CREATE A HIGHER TORNADO THREAT. OTHERWISE...LARGE HAIL WILL BE ANOTHER PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION. CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STOUT 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL BE SWEEPING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING ADDING TO THE LIFT AND CREATING A SECOND CHANCE OF STORMS. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LINEAR RATHER THAN THIS AFTERNOON DISCRETE CONVECTION. THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TRAILING UPPER LEVEL LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. JDV && .LONG TERM... THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SWING THROUGH WEST TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND ALLOW DEEP-LAYER RIDGING TO BEGIN MOVING IN. SKIES WILL CONTINUE A CLEARING TREND FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND ACCOMPANYING SUBSIDENCE. SUNNY SKIES WILL PRODUCE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND LOW-MID 80S THROUGHOUT THE ROLLING PLAINS...WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10-15 MPH. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS VARY IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY AT THIS POINT BUT WILL MONITOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS. THIS WAVE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND ANY RESIDUAL RAINFALL LOOK TO PUSH EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...PLACING WEST TEXAS BACK IN A DRY AND QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 52 73 42 77 43 / 70 0 0 0 0 TULIA 57 75 46 77 46 / 70 10 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 57 77 47 78 47 / 70 10 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 59 77 48 79 49 / 70 10 0 0 0 LUBBOCK 63 78 49 80 50 / 70 10 0 0 0 DENVER CITY 60 77 49 79 50 / 70 0 0 0 0 BROWNFIELD 60 78 49 80 50 / 60 10 0 0 0 CHILDRESS 64 82 52 84 50 / 60 40 0 0 0 SPUR 64 80 52 80 51 / 60 30 0 0 0 ASPERMONT 67 82 54 84 53 / 50 40 0 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 01/31
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1213 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012 TXZ021>044-131715- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1213 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CONVECTIVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND LOCALLY FLOODING RAINS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. THERE ALSO WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT WILL SWING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT...WHILE A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS LATER TODAY. THE MOST PROBABLE SCENARIO IS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSFORM INTO EITHER CLUSTERS OR LINES AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 549 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012 TXZ028-029-034-035-122315- HALE-HOCKLEY-LAMB-LUBBOCK- 549 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING PORTIONS OF HOCKLEY...LUBBOCK...LAMB AND HALE COUNTIES... AT 543 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES WEST OF ABERNATHY...OR 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED. LAT...LON 3403 10211 3387 10169 3356 10208 3374 10227 TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 210DEG 20KT 3378 10212 05
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 17 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:06 UTC.
6 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind, 2 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter estimated quarter size hail near Shallowater. No damage was observed.
A trained spotter estimated wind gusts to 65 mph with two inch diameter hail. The extent of damage was not known.
A trained spotter estimated two inch diameter hail and winds of 65 mph. The extent of damage was not known.
A swath of very large hail up to baseball size fell along I-27 between 6 and 12 miles south of Hale Center. The hail caused various degrees of damage to several vehicles; particularly those that sought limited shelter availability at a rest stop about 12 miles south of Hale Center. In some cases, complete windshields were cracked and rear windows shattered. Fortunately, no injuries were reported. Area cotton crops primed for harvest likely suffered damage as well; however, loss estimates were not known.
A trained spotter estimated baseball size hail. The extent of any damage was not known.
Broadcast media estimated golf ball size hail along with wind gusts estimated to 75 mph. Although damages likely occurred to area property and crops, no specific information was available.
Broadcast media estimated wind gusts to 75 mph along with golf ball size hail. Although damages likely occurred to area property and crops, no specific information was available.
Storm chasers observed a diffuse and intermittent tornado over open land about nine miles southeast of Hale Center. At times, this weak tornado exhibited cyclical multiple vortices rotating about the larger tornadic circulation that was estimated as wide as 200 yards wide at one point. Video evidence showed intermittent circulations at ground level throughout a period of about six minutes spanning nearly two miles in length. This otherwise weak tornado remained over farm land and caused no known damage.
The Tulia Police Department estimated golf ball size hail. No mention of damage was provided.
Storm chasers documented a narrow and very brief EF0 tornado in a field. A small amount of debris was observed rotating in a tight fashion underneath a condensation funnel. No damage occurred.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2012Every state in 2012This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Texas, 2012Warnings in Texas, October 2012
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 408417, 408453, 408605, 408420, 408639, 408647, 408648, 408679, 408652, 408826.